Regional Growth Strategy Regional Staff Committee September 20, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Regional Growth Strategy Regional Staff Committee September 20, 20, 20 2018

Overview • Regional Geographies • Growth Scenarios • Modeling/Screening Factors • Jobs-Population Balance • Transit-Oriented Development Goals • Next Steps 2

Schedule + Process September 6 Growth Management Policy Board Objectives, Geographies, Scenarios, TOD & jobs-housing balance • September 13 Land Use Technical Advisory Committee Technical review of inputs, assumptions, outputs • September 20/21 RSC, Co-Chairs Working Group Discuss Scenarios, TOD & jobs-housing balance • September 21 Regional TOD Advisory Committee Discuss TOD goal • (cont…) 3

Schedule + Process October 4 Growth Management Policy Board Discuss TOD, county shares, scenario changes • October 18 RSC, Co-Chairs Working Group Discuss scenarios • November 1 Growth Management Policy Board Select alternatives for environmental review • 4

2050 Forecast 1.8 million more people and 1.2 million more jobs by 2050 5

Regional Growth Strategy VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map • Aspirational, but achievable • Growth focused in Urban Growth Areas, cities, centers • Move towards jobs/housing balance • Preserves and supports rural and resource lands • Environmental, economic, transportation benefits • Numeric guidance for targets • Land use & transportation connection 6

Regional Growth Strategy Components Regional Geographies. Groupings of places within the Regional Growth Strategy Growth Scenarios. Concepts for how growth should be assigned. Some scenarios may become SEPA alternatives. Screening Factors. Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios.

Regional Geographies

Proposed Regional Geographies Map Regional Geographies Pr Proposal: Reaffirm focus on jurisdictions with • designated regional centers Differentiate current Small and Larger • cities by existing and planned high- capacity transit Includes light rail, bus rapid transit, commuter – rail, ferry & streetcar Identify unincorporated urban areas with • high-quality transit service Recognize Major Military Installations • 9 9

Proposed Regional Geographies Curren rrent Pr Proposed Metr Me trop opolita tan Citi ties Me Metr trop opolita tan Citi ties Core re Cit ities ies Core re Cit ities ies Larg rger Cit ities ies High Ca Capacity Trans nsit Co Communi unities Sma mall ll C Cities Ci Cities and nd Towns ns Ur Urban n Uni Uninc ncorporated A Areas Ur Urba ban n Uni Uninc ncorporated A Areas Rura ral Rura ral Resourc rce e Resourc rce e Ma Major or Mi Milita tary I Insta stallati tions 10

Growth Scenarios

Performance Overall • Long r ong range nge, bi big p g pictu cture – tren ends ds ar are e moving t towar wards ds Regi giona nal Gr l Grow owth th S Str trategy Mor ore gr grow owth th i in n ur urba ban a n areas, ci citi ties and nd ce cente nters o Les ess growth i h in rural al an and d res esource ar e areas eas o • Metr tro ci citi ties s sti till ca ll catch tching up g up; uni unincor ncorpor orate ted ur urba ban n conti continue ue to to gr grow ow f faste ter th than R n RGS GS • Count ounty-le level jobs l jobs/hou ousing ng ba bala lance nce be bette ter th than n anti nticipate ted; s sti till long ll long-te term ch challe llenge nge 12

Preliminary Growth Scenarios Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth • assumptions to 2050 Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth • assumptions to a 2017 base Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly • across urban growth area Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth • around high capacity transit 13

Population Change by Proposed Scenarios Total Population Change: 1.8 million new people by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the Course Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Amount nt of of Sha hare re o of f Geography Geo Regi giona nal G Grow owth Regi giona nal G Grow owth Metropolitan Cities 607,000 35% Core Cities 488,000 28% Transit Communities 307,000 17% Cities & Towns 174,000 10% Urban Unincorporated 85,000 5% Rural 95,000 5%

Scenario: Forward from 2017 Applies VISION 2040 growth shares from a 2017 base Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geo Geography Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 33% -24,000 Core Cities 27% -1 1,000 Transit Communities 17% -10,000 Cities & Towns 10% 9,000 Urban Unincorporated 6% 27,000 Rural 6% 9,000

Scenario: Transit Focused Growth Distributes more growth around high capacity transit Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geography Geo Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 38% 58,000 Core Cities 33% 85,000 Transit Communities 17% -3,000 Cities & Towns 6% -68,000 Urban Unincorporated 4% -13,000 Rural 2% -60,000

Scenario: Dispersed Urban Growth Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area Population Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geo Geography Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 15% -344,000 Core Cities 15% -225,000 Transit Communities 20% 44,000 Cities & Towns 25% 265,000 Urban Unincorporated 20% 266,000 Rural 5% -7,000

Employment Change by Proposed Scenario Total Employment Change: 1.2 million new jobs by 2050

VISION 2040 – Stay the Course Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050 Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Amount nt of of Sha hare re o of f Geography Geo Regi giona nal G Grow owth Regi giona nal G Grow owth Metropolitan Cities 509,000 44% Core Cities 4 13,000 36% Transit Communities 126,000 1 1% Cities & Towns 65,000 6% Urban Unincorporated 30,000 3% Rural 14,000 1%

Scenario: Forward from 2017 Applies VISION 2040 growth shares from a 2017 base Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geo Geography Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 43% -12,000 Core Cities 35% -7,000 Transit Communities 1 1% -2,000 Cities & Towns 6% 5,000 Urban Unincorporated 3% 5,000 Rural 2% 1 1,000

Scenario: Transit Focused Growth Distributes more growth around high capacity transit Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geo Geography Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 44% 1,000 Core Cities 37% 18,000 Transit Communities 12% 1 1,000 Cities & Towns 4% -19,000 Urban Unincorporated 2% -7,000 Rural 1% -3,000

Scenario: Dispersed Urban Growth Distributes growth broadly across the urban growth area Employment Change: 2017 to 2050 Sha hare re o of f Diffe fere rence fro from Geography Geo Regi giona nal G Grow owth Sta tay the the Cours rse Metropolitan Cities 23% -243,000 Core Cities 20% -181,000 Transit Communities 20% 106,000 Cities & Towns 20% 167,000 Urban Unincorporated 15% 144,000 Rural 2% 9,000

Preliminary Round 1 Screening Factors

Screening Factors Short list of measures to evaluate VISION 2050 growth scenarios Mobility. Delay, transit ridership, mode share Growth Near Transit. New people and jobs near transit Housing Choice. Growth at low, medium & high densities Access to Opportunity. Growth in moderate to high opportunity areas Jobs-Housing Balance. Ratio by county and subarea Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions [forthcoming]

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings Mobility Stay the Forward Dispersed Transit Focused Course from 2017 Urban Growth Growth SOV Mode Share – All Trips 35% - +5% -5% Delay per Person 47 +2% +12% -7% Annual Transit Boardings 470,000,000 +4% - 6% +11% Delay per Truck 108 +1% +5% -4%

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings Growth Near Transit Transit Stay the Forward from Dispersed Focused Course 2017 Urban Growth Growth % Share of Population Growth 44% - 1% - 22% + 34% % Share of Job Growth 60% - 2% - 20% + 21% Housing Choice Dispersed Transit Stay the Forward Urban Focused Course from 2017 Growth Growth % Lower Density (single family) 36% + 2% + 19% - 13% % Medium (duplex, triplex, low-rise) 16% - - 1% + 1% % High Density (larger apt, condo bldgs) 47% - 1% - 18% + 12%

PRELIMINARY Scenario Findings Access to Opportunity - Population Transit Stay the Forward from Dispersed Focused Population Course 2017 Urban Growth Growth % Very Low and Low Opportunity 48% - 4% - 10% - 1% % Moderate, High and Very High 52% + 4% + 10% + 1% Opportunity Access to Opportunity - Employment Transit Stay the Forward from Dispersed Focused Employment Course 2017 Urban Growth Growth % Very Low and Low Opportunity 47% - 2% - 9% - 2% % Moderate, High and Very High 53% + 2% + 9% + 2% Opportunity