2 nd International ADAPTtoCLIMATE Conference Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the C. Tsompanidis, T . Lolos, A. Sakalis *, E. Vlahantoni, E. 5 th IPCC Assessment Report Ieremiadi, D.A. Sarigiannis, A. Gotti, E. Scoccimarro Heraklion, June 25, 2019
IPCC • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess climate change based on the latest science • IPCC reports cover the scientifjc, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientifjc basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation • The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change, producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 2 5th IPCC Assessment Report 2
IPCC 5 th Assessment Report 2046-2065 2081-2100 Scenari Mean Range Mean Range o RCP2.6 1,0 0,4 - 1,6 1,0 0,3 - 1,7 Global Mean RCP4.5 1,4 0,9 - 2,0 1,8 1,1 - 2,6 T emperature RCP6.0 1,3 0,8 - 1,8 2,2 1,4 - 3,1 Change ( o C) RCP8.5 2,0 1,4 - 2,6 3,7 2,6 - 4,8 RCP2.6 0,24 0,17 - 0,32 0,40 0,26 - 0,55 Global Mean RCP4.5 0,26 0,19 - 0,33 0,47 0,32 - 0,63 Sea Level Rise RCP6.0 0,25 0,18 - 0,32 0,48 0,33 - 0,63 (m) RCP8.5 0,30 0,22 - 0,38 0,63 0,45 - 0,82 • IPCC issued its 5 th Assessment Report in 2014. According to the Report, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are mainly caused due to population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy consumption, land use patterns, technology and climate policy • The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which were created to describe these factors, evaluate four difgerent 21 st century pathways for greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions and land use. • RCPs include a rigorous mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and a very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) scenario • The scenarios are named on the basis of the change in energy intensity in 2100, in relation to the pre-industrial period (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W/m 2 respectively). Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 3 5th IPCC Assessment Report
Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme CORDEX downscaling efgort based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) running with boundary conditions provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) 14 CORDEX Domains defjned EURO-CORDEX the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative organize an internationally coordinated framework to produce ensemble climate simulations based on multiple dynamical and empirical-statistical downscaling Euro- models forced by multiple global climate models from the CORDE Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) X Horizontal resolution ranging from 50 to 15 km (EUR-11 domain) Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 4 5th IPCC Assessment Report
Downscaling process Projection of extreme precipitation Global Scale : General Circulation Models GCMs Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs are used to simulate past and future climate at the global GCM scale, under difgerent radiative forcing conditions. Under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 is the last one used for the 5 th IPCC Assessment Report) difgerent future radiative path are Considered (i.e. RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 ). [% change] Projection of extreme precipitation Regional Scale : Regional Models ( RCMs ) forced by GCMs T o downscale to a higher resolution, Atmosphere only RCM Regional Models are used. The atmospheric radiative forcing is the same as for GCMs. Also, boundary conditions for the RCM are Provided by GCMs. The Euro-CORDEX ( http://www.euro-cordex.net/) Coordinated Downscaling Experiment provides a multimodel ensemble of climate scenarios Additional refjnement to few available at the 11 km horizontal resolution Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the km 5 ( EUR-11 ). 5th IPCC Assessment Report
Delivery of climate data and indicators Regional Climate Models (RCMs) involved Downscaling to about 11 km as horizontal resolution EURO-CORDEX – Coordinated 11 km as Downscaling Experiment - European Horiz. Res. Domain (http://www.euro-cordex.net/) European branch of the Atmospheric model international Orography CORDEX initiative, which is a Boundary conditions for RCMs program are provided by General Circulation Models sponsored by the World Climate Research Program Driving (WRCP) Model name Institute GCM MPI-M-ESM- CCLM4 Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) LR Five regional climate KNMI- ICHEC-EC- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute RACMO22E EARTH Models used . INERIS- IPSL-CM5A- IPSL (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) and INERIS (Institut WRF331F MR National de l Environnement industriel et des RISques) CNRM- CNRM-CM5 Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) CCLM4 MIP-M-ESM- REMO2009 Max Plank Institute LR Under two difgerent CMIP5 (5 th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project defjned to support the 5 th IPCC Assessment Report (AR-5) emission scenarios for the XXI Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the century : RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 up to year 2100 . 6 5th IPCC Assessment Report
Climate Change Modeling Climate data availability at the EU level Based on CORDEX-EUR11 Regional Climate model results, we collected daily data covering the period 2005-2100 under the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over the European region from 4 Regional Climate Models for the following variables: Acrony Vertical Field Field Description m level Unit Precipitation pr Surface [Kgm -2 s -1 ] Surface relative humidity hurs surface [%] Surface solar radiation rsds surface [W/m2] Wind module sfcWind 10 meter [m/s] Wind module max sfcWindmax 10 meter [Pa] The Euro-CORDEX ( http://www.euro-cordex.net/) zonal wind speed uas 10 meter [m/s] Coordinated Downscaling Experiment meridional wind speed vas 10 meter [m/s] provides 2 meter Temperature tas 2 meter [K] A multimodel ensemble 2 meter Air Temperature max tasmax 2 meter [K] of climate scenarios available at the 2 meter Air Temperature min tasmin 2 meter [K] 11 km horizontal resolution ( EUR-11 ). Number of tropical nights Ecatr surface Number of wet days Ecaid surface Number of ice days Ecarr1 surface Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 7 5th IPCC Assessment Report
Regional EURO-CORDEX models T o calculate the basic climate indices and apply them to the methodology, we used a set of modes so as to optimize the result and reduce the error. The following EURO-CORDEX models were used: • CNRM_CCLM4: Group of simulations developed by the Center National de Recherches Météorologiques of France. Data were produced in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) as well as future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. • EC-EARTH_KNMI: Group of simulations fully coupled Atmospheric-Ocean model developed by twenty- two research Organizations from ten European countries under the lead of Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut of the Netherlands. Data were generated on a daily basis and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. • IPSL_WRF331F: Group of simulations, developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace of France. Data were produced in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. • MPI_CCLM4: Group of simulations, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. Data were generated on a daily basis and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. • MPI_REMO_2009 : Group of simulations, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. The atmospheric model is coupled to three difgerent hydrologic models and three ocean models. Data were generated in a daily step and include a reference period (historical data) and future projections up to 2100 for RCP2.6 scenario. Regional Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Methodological Approach on Future Projections and Vulnerability Assessment in accordance with the 8 5th IPCC Assessment Report
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