Reconciling Chinas Regional Input- Output Tables David - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Reconciling China’s Regional Input- Output Tables David Roland-Holst and Muzhe Yang UC Berkeley Lecture I Presented to the Development Research Centre State Council of the PRC Beijing, 6 June 2005

Lectures on Data and Model Development 1. Regional Data Reconciliation 2. Multi-regional Trade Flow Estimation 3. Integrated Micro-Macro Modeling 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 2

Objectives • Implement an efficient econometric methods for reconciling provincial Input-output tables with national accounts. • Establish coherent national standards for data harmonization 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 3

Motivation • Provincial Input-output are available for China, but they exhibit a variety of consistency problems – Among the more serious of these is inconsistency with national-level tables, individually and collectively • Consistent individual and aggregate tables are essential to implement detailed economic analysis within and across provinces and regions 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 4

Foundation – PRC Provincial IO Tables • Already available • Nationally comprehensive and consistent in terms of account definitions • This work supports efforts already under way at the provincial and national (NBS) level, and also builds on existing DRC capacity for SAM and CGE research 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 5

Proposed Approach • Using Bayesian econometric techniques to incorporate prior information when updating and reconciling economic accounts • We show how to estimate a consistent provincial table with additional prior information at the national level. • The estimation begins with a consistent national table that is assumed (for convenience only) to be known with certainty. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 6

Overview of the Estimation Problem The set-up of this matrix balancing problem follows Golan, Judge and Miller (1996). We focus on balancing schemes for provincial table. The proposed approach is an extension of that usually applied to a national table. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 7

Estimation Strategy { } ∈ L , a K -sector Consider one province, 1,2, , g G economy, represented by an input-output table, IO (g) , where each entry indicates a payment by a column account to a row account: ( ) ( ) ⎡ ⎤ g g f T ( ) = ⎢ ⎥ g IO ( ) ′ ⎢ ⎥ g ⎣ ⎦ v 0 ( ) ( ) + × + K 1 K 1 ( ) ( ) × g g where is a K matrix of intermediate sales, is a K T K f ( ) g is a K -vector of sectoral value -vector of final demands, and v g is therefore a ( ) ( ) added. The table IO ( ) + × + 1 1 matrix, K K where corresponding column and row sums are equal. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 8

Estimation 2 Assume: × (1) Intermediate demands are determined by a K fixed K ( ) g coefficient matrix ; A ( ) g (2) A K -vector, x , represents sectoral sales to both intermediate and final demanders. Then, we have the following standard Leontief input-output model: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) + = g g g g x f x A ( ) ( ) ( ) ≡ − g g g Define y x f , as the sectoral sales to intermediate demanders. This ( ) g transaction has double meanings: the column vector of represents sectoral y ( ) g intermediate expenditures, while the row vector of y represents sectoral intermediate receipts. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 9

Estimation 3 Now we transform the matrix balancing problem into the ( ) ( ) g g econometric problem of identifying the elements of the a A ij matrix, based on the available economic information contained in the row and column sums IO table. This strategy takes the form ( ) ( ) ( ) = g g g y A x ∑ ( ) ( ) ( ) = K = g g ( ) g L y 1, , A x j K = j j j 1 × K 1 × × 1 1 1 K ∑ ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ⇒ = K = g g g L y a x i j , 1, , K = i ij j j 1 ( ) ( ) = g g ( ) g Q T a x ij ij j ∑ ∑ ( ) ( ) ⇒ K = = K = g ( ) g ( ) g L T y T i j , 1, , K = = ij i ji j 1 j 1 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 10

Identification Strategy To proceed, we transform the national table in precisely the same way [omit the (g) superscript in the last three slides] . Now we use the entropy principle to recover A and A (g) from the top down, under the row-column linear restrictions and the micro-macro consistency requirement. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 11

Balancing Scheme for the National Table Consider the standard formulation y = Ax , where y and x are K × -dimentional vectors of known data and A is an unknown K K matrix that must satisfy the following three conditions: (1) Consistency : ∑ ( ) K = = L i a 1 j 1, , K = ij 1 (2) Adding up : ∑ ( ) K = = L j a x y i 1, , K = ij j i 1 (3) Non-negativity : ( ) ≥ = L a 0 i j , 1, , K ij 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 12

Maximum Entropy Principle Given the three conditions, the problem of identifying the a ij elements of the A matrix is formulated as: > − ∑ ∑ K K max a ln a = = ij ij i 1 j 1 a 0 ij subject to: ∑ ( ) K = = L a 1 j 1, , K = ij i 1 ∑ ( ) K = = L a x y i 1, , K = ij j i j 1 ) ME The solution to this problem is denoted as . a ij 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 13

Balancing Scheme for Provincial Tables { } ∈ L Consider the previous formulation for province , i.e. g 1,2, , G = ( ) ( ) ( ) g g g y A x ( ) g ( ) g are K -dimensional vectors of known data and where and x y × ( ) g is an unknown K matrix that must satisfy: A K (1) Consistency: ∑ ( ) K = = ( ) g L i a 1 j 1, , K = ij 1 (2) Adding up: ∑ ( ) K = = ( ) g ( ) g ( ) g L j a x y i 1, , K = ij j i 1 (3) Non-negativity: ( ) ≥ = L ( ) g a 0 i j , 1, , K ij 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 14

Specification of Prior Information The national level estimates provide information that may be used in recovering estimates of provincial SAMs. This information can be stated as a series of prior restrictions on estimating the new provincial IO. We give six examples: (1) Links between national and provincial accounts: ∑ ( ) ( ) G = = g L x x j 1, , K = j j g 1 ∑ ( ) ( ) G = = g L y y i 1, , K = i i g 1 ) ME (2) Properties of national level estimates a : ij ) ∑ ME K = a x y ij = j i j 1 ) (1 above) ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) ( ) ME ⇔ G K = G g g a x y ij = = = j i g 1 j 1 g 1 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 15

Priors 3-5 ) ME( ) g (3) Maximum entropy estimates for each provincial IO: a ij (4) Provincial adding-up restrictions: ) ∑ ME( ) g K = ( ) ( ) g g a x y ij = j i 1 j ) ∑ ∑ ∑ ME( ) g G K G = ( ) g ( ) g a x y ij = = = j i g 1 j 1 g 1 ) ) (2 above) ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) ME( ) g ME ⇔ G K = G K ( ) g g a x a x ij ij = = = = j j 1 1 1 1 g j g j (5) If the set of provincial IO tables is not complete, we can assume the following: ) ) ∑ ∑ ( ) ME( ) g ME K = K ( ) g g a x a x ij ij = = j j j 1 j 1 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 16

Prior 6 (6) Assume that the activity accounts represent homogeneous technologies in each province, with the technological coefficients denoted as a ij . Therefore, we have: ) ) ) ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) ME ME( ) g ME( ) g K = K = K + K g ( ) g ( ) g ( ) g A a x a x a x a x ij ij ij ij = j = j = j = + j j 1 j 1 j 1 j K 1 A ) ) ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) ME ME( ) g ⇒ K = K − K g ( ) g ( ) g A a x a x a x ij ij ij = = = + j j j j 1 j 1 j K 1 A ) ) ( ) ME ME( ) g − ∑ ∑ g ( ) g K K a x a x = = + ij ij ⇒ = 1 1 j j j K j A a ⋅ i ∑ K ( ) g x A = 1 j j 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 17

Other Prior Information In addition to the examples given here, any specific prior information about the accounts or underlying technical relationships. These include: 1. Cell inequality or boundary constraints (><0, etc.) 2. Institutional budget constraints. 3. Fixed values or variance constraints. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 18

Summation With these conditions in mind, we can express prior information for estimating each provincial table as follows: ⎧ ( ) = ⎪ L a j 1, , K ⋅ )( ) i = = A 0( ) g ⎨ L a i 1, , K ) ( = ij L ME( ) g j K , , K ⎪ ⎩ a A ij ) ME( ) g where comes from the first-round maximum a ij entropy estimation for each provincial IO table. 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 19

Cross Entropy Principle ( g ) Finally, the problem of identifying the elements of provincial a ij ( ) g the matrix is formulated as: A ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ K K K K − ( ) g ( ) g ( ) g 0( ) g min ln ln a a a a = = = = ij ij ij ij i 1 j 1 i 1 j 1 > ( g ) a 0 ij subject to: ∑ ( ) K = = ( ) g L 1 1, , a j K = ij i 1 ∑ ( ) K = = ( ) ( ) ( ) g g g L a x y i 1, , K = ij j i j 1 ) CE( ) g the solution to which is denoted by . a ij 6 June 2005 Roland-Holst and Yang Slide 20