Quarterly Northwest Report Independent School 4Q15 District - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Northwest Report Independent School 4Q15 District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions – DFW Area 2.9% 26,840 99,000 new jobs Unemployment 2,713 more National rate 1.8% than 2014 Rate Annualized U.S. 5.4% Job Growth Texas 4.1% Home Starts DFW MSA 4.0% Fort Worth 0.2% -0.2% Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future Frisco ISD 2,934 2,818 3,977 8,450 1 Denton ISD 1,894 1,675 3,033 16,140 2 Prosper ISD 1,723 1,385 2,874 32,944 3 Northwest ISD 1,223 1,153 1,933 26,757* 4 Dallas ISD 1,235 1,015 2,234 5,949 5 Lewisville ISD 1,320 1,007 2,151 2,989 6 Keller ISD 953 959 960 2,282 7 Eagle Mtn. ‐ Saginaw ISD 943 868 1,297 19,518 8 Little Elm ISD 1,075 856 1,556 4,746 9 Rockwall ISD 709 643 1,819 8,330 10 Wylie ISD 664 539 884 4,612 11 Mansfield ISD 635 526 1,028 5,509 12 McKinney ISD 591 509 1,219 6,868 13 Crowley ISD 559 495 1,220 8,031 14 Allen ISD 488 467 644 2,063 15 Plano ISD 481 445 945 2,877 16 Forney ISD 425 439 654 12,260 17 Midlothian ISD 461 432 1,255 20,908 18 Burleson ISD 480 417 642 3,324 19 HEB ISD 424 411 438 4,909 20 *Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff ( Added McElvey Ranch 2,000 lots, Wellington 1,374 lots, Stardust Ranch 143 lots, Entrada (Westlake) 10 lots; Subtracted 1,533 lots from Tradition) 3

New Housing Activity 4Q15 Northwest ISD 700 Starts Closings Inventory 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 297 230 251 288 357 230 1Q 229 224 220 225 269 287 2Q 357 268 293 362 282 307 2Q 349 230 331 318 341 263 3Q 264 285 286 347 350 375 3Q 348 263 332 299 347 283 4Q 204 254 257 270 239 311 4Q 277 295 258 344 273 315 Total 1,122 1,037 1,087 1,267 1,228 1,223 Total 1,203 1,012 1,141 1,186 1,230 1,148 4Q15 starts are the highest 4 th Quarter starts since 2007 • • 4Q15 Closings increased 11% from 3Q15 and posted the highest closing rate of 2015 • Inventory remains in a good position with 6.2 month’s supply 4

Annual Closing Distribution 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Closings Closings VDL 1 Dorado Ranch 122 39 10 2 Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth) 88 23 18 3 Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck) 85 22 61 4 Harmon Ranch 79 22 255 5 Highlands Glen 61 23 6 6 Reata Meadows 60 16 1 7 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 17 151 8 Villages Woodland Springs/Woodlands 57 14 6 9 Briarwyck (Roanoke) 53 13 19 10 Fairway Ranch 46 6 106 TOTALS 708 195 633 5

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 24 343 689 2 Harmon Ranch 79 255 115 3 Trails of Fossil Creek 57 151 439 4 Harvest Meadows (NWISD) 30 132 440 5 Fairway Ranch 46 106 290 6 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 12 81 5,024 7 Ranches, The 2 79 29 8 Trophy Club/Canterbury Hills 28 78 0 9 Avery Ranch 15 68 0 10 Chadwick Farms 22 66 87 TOTALS 315 1,359 7,113 6

Future Lots 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch) 81 5,024 2 Sendera Ranch (Thompson) 37 3,640 3 Tradition 0 2,984 4 McKelvey Ranch 0 2,000 5 Wellington (Ft. Worth) 0 1,700 6 Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD) 0 1,162 7 Champions Circle/Oak Creek Trails 0 825 8 Berkshire 0 791 9 Canyon Falls (Northlake) 343 689 10 Shale Creek 4 600 TOTALS 465 19,337 7

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Vacant Dev. Elementary Zone Starts Starts Closings Closings Inventory Lots Future Lots BECK 164 40 153 50 87 86 102 CLARA LOVE 1 0 1 0 0 0 321 COX 148 43 143 25 81 243 815 GRANGER 47 6 57 14 18 6 0 HASLET 26 3 42 4 11 60 1,322 HATFIELD 7 0 32 1 0 3 6,633 HUGHES 23 23 3 0 23 82 137 JUSTIN 150 51 88 38 88 307 1,092 LAKEVIEW 48 18 40 8 41 127 315 NANCE 49 7 64 17 16 157 1,747 PETERSON 119 11 165 39 22 256 278 PRAIRIE VIEW 4 4 3 1 4 24 786 ROANOKE 127 39 77 37 75 384 699 SCHLUTER 195 19 212 62 51 38 3,564 SENDERA RANCH 2 0 12 0 4 81 5,024 SEVEN HILLS 13 4 15 5 7 42 282 THOMPSON 100 46 46 15 73 37 3,640 Grand Totals 1,223 314 1,153 316 601 1,933 26,757 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category 8 Third highest activity in the category

Active Subdivision Berkshire Berkshire– City of Fort Worth • 791 total lots • Ground work currently underway • First phase of 299 lots expected to be delivered in March 2016 • Estimated velocity rates: • 2016 = 192 homes • 2017 = 192 homes • 2018= 192 homes • 2019 = 192 homes • 2020 = 71 homes • First residents expected fall 2016 • $275K-$350K • Appx. 15-20 lots fall in Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD • Nance Elementary Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD 9

Future Subdivision Harvest by Hillwood Harvest Argyle ISD • 650 total lots • 440 future lots • 132 vacant developed lots • 30 occupied homes • 30 homes under construction • 30 4Q starts • 78 annual starts • Split between Argyle ISD and Northwest ISD • AISD = 2,350 lots • NWISD = 650 lots • 2 current students in NWISD • Justin Elementary 10

Future Subdivision Tradition – City of Ft. Worth Tradition • 2,984 total lots (estimate) • 300 apartment units (estimate) • 395 total acres • Stratford Land Development • Sale of land expected to complete in April 2016 • Developer anticipates first homes on ground 18-24 months after sale closes • No current students • Hatfield Elementary 11

Future Subdivision Wellington- City of Ft. Worth Wellington • 2,900 total units • 1,700 single family lots • 1,200 multi-family units • First 500 lots currently under development • Lot delivery expected spring 2017 • 5 home builders • Anticipated absorption rate: 15-20 homes per month • First residents expected Fall 2017 • Schluter Elementary 12

Future Subdivision Sendera Ranch – City of Ft. Worth Sendera Ranch North 2,400 future lots Sendera Ranch • 11,429 total lots • 8,664 future lots • 2,570 homes occupied • 62 homes under construction • 118 vacant developed lots • 2,400 future lots in Sendera Ranch North • Developer anticipates first homes on the ground in 4Q16 • Developer estimates delivering 400-600 lots per year through 2022 • Split between Sendera Ranch Elementary and Thompson Elementary • 2,244 total students • 1,105 elementary students • 549 middle school students • 590 high school students • Current student yield= .87 13

Future Development Project Blizzard Project Blizzard • Hillwood Mixed use development • 275 single family lots • Project will be completed in 5 phases • Zoning has been approved • Construction not anticipated to start until 3Q16 • Lakeview Elementary 14

Apartment Yield Analysis Yield Comparison 2014-15 2015-16 Change Students 676 803 + 127 Average Yield 0.30 0.32 + 0.02 *Comparison between the same 18 apartments existing in 2014-15 study. 15

Future Apartments 16

Apartment and Single Family Analysis 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 Change Total Students 19,828 20,948 1,120 Out of District 468 472 4 Unmatched 153 207 54 Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 19,207 20,269 1,062 Multi ‐ Family Students in MF 676 803 127 MF Units 3,445 3,445 0 % Students in MF 3.5% 3.9% 0.4% MF Yield 0.20 0.27 0.07 Single Family Students in SF 18,531 19,466 935 SF Parcels 29,827 30,463 636 % Students in SF 96.5% 96.1% ‐ 0.4% SF Yield 0.62 0.64 0.02 • Between 2014/15 and 2015/16 Northwest ISD added 127 students in multi- family units • Almost 4% of Northwest ISD students reside in multi-family units • The district multi-family yield per unit is 0.27 students, while the yield for a single family home is 0.64 students • Northwest ISD added 935 students in single family homes between 2014/15 and 2015/16 17