Q3 2018 B AKKAFROST GROUP Oslo 6 November 2018
DISCLAIMER No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is This presentation includes statements regarding future results, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the Consequently, actual results may differ significantly from fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information the results indicated or implied in these statements. contained herein. Accordingly, none of the Company, or any of its principal shareholders or subsidiary under- takings or any of such person’s officers or employees or advisors accept any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. Page 2 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SUMMARY OF Q3 2018 MARKETS AND SALES SEGMENT INFORMATION GROUP FINANCIALS OUTLOOK APPENDIX
HIGHLIGHTS Harvested 7,217 tgw in Q3 2018 (11,585 tgw in Q3 2017) Feed sales of 23,468 tonnes in Q3 2018* (22,320 tonnes in Q3 2017*) Operation Raw material purchase of 7,496 tonnes in Q3 2018 (21,937 tonnes in Q3 2017) Revenues of DKK 622 million in Q3 2018 (DKK 804 million in Q3 2017) Revenues and Operational EBIT Operational EBIT** of DKK 168 million in Q3 2018 (DKK 252 million in Q3 2017) Cash flow from operations of DKK 324 million in Q3 2018 (DKK 334 million in Q3 2017) Cash Flow Positive operational EBIT for all segments Segments *) Including internal sales of 20,783 tonnes in Q3 2018 (20,398 tonnes in Q3 2017) **) EBIT before fair value adjustments of biomass, onerous contracts provisions, income from associates and revenue tax Page 4 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SUMMARY OF THE QUARTER Operational EBIT for the Farming segment Q3 Q3 M9 M9 decreased due to lower volumes. Positive (DKK million) 2018 2017 2018 2017 operational EBIT for the VAP segment, but Operating revenue 622 804 2,427 2,864 lower EBITDA margin for the FOF segment. Operational EBITDA 221 302 992 1,184 Farming/VAP margin increased from 23.02 Operational EBIT 168 252 844 1,046 NOK/kg in Q3 2017 to 25.34 NOK/kg in Q3 Profit for the period 356 56 967 533 2018 Operational EBITDA margin 35.6% 37.6% 40.9% 41.3% VAP segment had a positive margin of 2.49 NOK/kg in Q3 2018, compared to -1.08 Operational EBIT margin 27.1% 31.3% 34.8% 36.5% NOK/kg in Q3 2017 Operational EBIT/Kg (Farming) (NOK) 24.85 23.51 30.28 31.05 Farming margin was 24.85 NOK/kg in Q3 Operational EBIT/Kg (Farming and VAP) (NOK) 25.34 23.02 29.25 27.82 2018, compared to 23.51 NOK/kg in Q3 2017 Operational EBIT/Kg (VAP) (NOK) 2.49 -1.08 -6.01 -9.84 FOF margin was 11.7% in Q3 2018, EBITDA margin (Fishmeal, -Oil and Feed) 11.7% 23.2% 19.8% 18.4% compared to 23.2% in Q3 2017. Group Operational EBIT was DKK 168 million in Q3 2018, compared to DKK 252 million in Q3 2017 Page 5 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SUMMARY OF Q3 2018 MARKETS AND SALES SEGMENT INFORMATION GROUP FINANCIALS OUTLOOK INVESTMENT PLAN 2018 - 2022 APPENDIX
MARKETS & SALES Sales distribution in Q3 2018 had similar trends as in the Total sales of salmon Q3 Q3 M9 M9 first half of 2018. Sales to Eastern Europe increased and by markets 2018 2017 2018 2017 sales to EU decreased in Q3 2018, compared to Q3 2017. EU 27% 45% 29% 46% Small changes in sales to USA and Asia. VAP on USA 18% 20% 16% 17% contract is still on a low level at 20% Asia 23% 21% 23% 15% Eastern Europe 32% 14% 32% 22% EU market decreased from 45% in Q3 2017 to 27% in Q3 2018 Fresh salmon only Q3 Q3 M9 M9 USA decreased from 20% to 18% by markets 2018 2017 2018 2017 Asia increased from 21% to 23% EU 19% 15% 21% 28% USA 18% 28% 16% 23% Eastern Europe increased from 14% to 32% Asia 26% 34% 26% 20% Harvest volumes used in VAP were 20% in Q3 2018, Eastern Europe 37% 23% 37% 29% compared to 45% in Q3 2017 Contract share, VAP products [% of qty] 100% 80% 55% 67% 60% 80% 83% 40% 45% 20% 33% 20% 17% 0% Q3 2018 Q3 2017 M9 2018 M9 2017 VAP on contract HOG, spot Page 7 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
GLOBAL MARKETS Lower prices in Q3 2018 Spot prices (NASDAQ) on superior 4-5 [NOK/kg HOG] Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Prices dropped 3% compared with Q3-2017 80.00 70.00 y/y by 1.39 NOK/kg ~2% - from NOK 56.70 to NOK 55.31 60.00 50.00 q/q by 14.86 NOK/kg ~21% - from NOK 70.17 to NOK 55.31 40.00 30.00 Increased global supply in Q3 2018 20.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 2015 2016 2017 2018 5.4% increased global supply in Q3 2018, compared with Q3 2017, corresponding to Change in global market supply and market price 28,300 tonnes Change in global 50% market supply of farmed Atlantic salmon from the 30% previous year 10% Change in European spot prices - fresh 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 -10% Atlantic salmon 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (FishPool index) from the previous -30% year -50% Source: Kontali Page 8 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
DEVELOPMENT IN HARVESTED AND SOLD QUANTITY BY ORIGIN 5.4% global supply growth in Q3 2018 SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT Q3 Q3 Change (HOG ‐ 1,000 tonnes) 2018 2017 % Supply increase exceeded change in harvest Norway 292.2 280.7 4.1 % due to inventory movements in Chile UK 33.8 42.0 -19.5 % Ireland 3.2 4.1 -22.2 % Flat European harvest Faroes 11.3 15.8 -29.0 % Norway increased harvest by 4% Total Europe 340.5 342.6 ‐0.6 % Some acceleration in harvest due to challenges Chile 149.9 127.2 17.9 % Canada 33.6 34.2 -1.8 % Increased lice challenges in the North USA 4.6 4.9 -5.6 % UK reduced harvest by 20% Total Americas 188.1 166.2 13.2 % Impacted by past biological challenges Other 19.0 18.6 1.9 % Improved underlying performance Total (Harvested quantity) 547.6 527.5 3.8 % Americas harvest increased by 13% Inventory movements 1.0 -7.3 -113.6 % Chile increased harvest by 18% Total (Sold Quantity) 548.6 520.2 5.4 % Very strong biological performance Reduced harvest in Canada and in USA Source: Kontali Page 9 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SALMON MARKETS, SOLD QUANTITY (HOG) Strong momentum in most markets Salmon markets, sold quantity (head on gutted - HOG) Estimated volumes Q3 comparison Estimated volumes YTD comparison Marginal growth in the EU Markets Q3 2018 Q3 2017 Volume % M9 2018 M9 2017 Volume % EU 247,700 245,200 2,500 1.0% 678,600 654,000 24,600 3.8% Reflecting 1% harvest decline in Europe USA 107,400 95,700 11,700 12.2% 327,000 293,600 33,400 11.4% Russia 23,900 17,800 6,100 34.3% 66,700 45,400 21,300 46.9% Strong US growth at increased prices Japan 13,400 13,300 100 0.8% 38,300 41,700 -3,400 -8.2% However prices are reduced from Greater China 30,800 27,600 3,200 11.6% 91,900 75,000 16,900 22.5% previous quarter ASEAN 16,500 20,400 -3,900 -19.1% 49,100 61,500 -12,400 -20.2% Latin America 37,400 33,200 4,200 12.7% 114,500 99,300 15,200 15.3% Growth in Russia Ukraine 3,900 3,400 500 14.7% 10,500 8,900 1,600 18.0% Other markets 67,600 63,700 3,900 6.1% 195,500 178,600 16,900 9.5% Chile major contributor to the growth Total all markets 548,600 520,300 28,300 5.4 % 1,571,900 1,457,800 114,100 7.8 % Greater China/ASEAN Comments: Marginal combined decline Greater China = China / Hong Kong / Taiwan (incl. estimated re‐export from Vietnam) ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations (estimated re‐export from Vietnam subtracted) Significant growth in supply from Chile Latin America (including both Mexico and Caribbean + domestic consumption in Chile) All figures above are in tonnes hog, and are rounded to the nearest 100 tonnes. Boost from Norway – China relations Inaccurate quarterly number – should be read in concert Source: Kontali Page 10 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SHORT TERM SUPPLY OUTLOOK Modest supply growth expected coming quarters SUPPLY - TOTAL Growth rate impacted by inventory movements 620 6% Growth in harvest likely to be instrumental for pricing 600 5% Frozen products are materially sold through alternative channels 580 4% 560 Europe – Increasing, but still limited growth 3% 540 Uncertainty linked to biological performance in Norway 2% 520 Scotland expected to recover 1% 500 Americas – Limited growth 480 0% Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Chile expected to grow modestly due to regulatory constraints Harvest Supply to the markets May be surprise on the upside Change Harvest Change Supply to the markets SUPPLY - EUROPE SUPPLY - AMERICAS 192 30% 450 10.0% 400 190 25% 8.0% 350 188 20% 300 6.0% 186 15% 250 184 4.0% 10% 200 182 5% 150 2.0% 180 100 0% 178 0.0% 50 176 ‐5% 0 ‐2.0% Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 AMERICAS Change same quarter last year EUROPE Change same quarter last year Source: Kontali Page 11 BAKKAFROST / Q3 2018 PRESENTATION
SUMMARY OF Q3 2018 MARKETS AND SALES SEGMENT INFORMATION GROUP FINANCIALS OUTLOOK INVESTMENT PLAN 2018 - 2022 APPENDIX
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