PURPO RPOSE SE OF THE IDP REPFORUM PFORUM 34 Annual review and amendment of integrated development plan A municipal council- (a) must review its integrated development plan- (i) annually in accordance with an assessment of its performance measurements in terms of section 41; and (ii) to the extent that changing circumstances so demand; and (b) may amend its integrated development plan in accordance with a prescribed process.
PURPO RPOSE SE OF THE IDP REPFORUM PFORUM Represent the interest of the municipality`s constituency in the IDP Process. Provide an organisational mechanism for discu cussio ion, , neg egotia iation and d decis cisio ion makin ing g between the stakeholders inclusive of municipal government. Ensure communication between all the stakeholder representatives inclusive of municipal government. Monitor the performance of the planning and implementation process .
RO ROLES S OF THE IDP REPFORU FORUM Form a structural link between the municipality and the public by informing interest groups, communities and organisations on relevant planning activities and their outcomes. Analyse and integrate issues affecting the various sectors, determine priorities, strategies, projects and programmes and identify budget requirements. Discuss and comment on the draft IDP/Budget. Monitor performance of the planning and implementation process through the Quarterly and Mid- year Performance Reports and the Annual Report of the municipality
Content ents • Pla lann nning ing in in un uncer certaint inty, for resilie silience nce and nd decli decline ne and nd the he SA SA expe perie rience nce • The The cur current ent eco economic mic resil esilie ienc nce of of Post stma masbur sburg • Findings Findings: Spatia ial Pla lann nning ing and nd resili ilience nce in in Post stma masbur sburg • Conclusio clusions ns
Planning ng and uncerta tain inty ty
What at is a Spatia atial Devel elopment ent Framew amework (SDF DF)? Source: Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (2014) – SDF Guidelines
• Spatial plann nning ng: re re-ima magining a place with pro roposals to achieve that vision • Must be futur ure-ori oriented and consider r the long term • But planners don’t focus on the longer-ra range future due to • Lack of skills s • Overwh whel elmed ed with day-to to-day day issues es • Political al 5- year term creates ‘short - sightedness’ • Complex exity and uncer ertainty
Spa patial tial plan anning ing in SA Many ny spa patia ial develo lopment ment frame mework rks s • Too bro road d to be useful ul • Too utopi pian, n, not inform rmed d by facts s or theory • Don’t appreciate complexity and cannot deal with them m • Do not integrate sectors/stakeholder’s plan or socia cial/ l/eco conomi nomic/env nvir ironm nment ntal aspe pect cts s • Unabl ble to anticip icipate change nge – hence ce canno not build ild spa patia ial l re resilie silience nce
Planning ing for r decline ine • Plann nning ing tradit ditio ionall nally dealt with h grow rowth: h: declining clining & stagnat gnating ing citie ies s now a re reali lity • East Germany any • USA ‘rust belt’ • Mining ng towns ns / resour urce ce towns ns (Welkom, Matlosana ana, Coal Rim in KZN)
Planning ing for r decline: ine: re reaction tions • Revers rse decline • Altern ernat ative e economic c base: e: knowl wled edge ge industries es/ altern ernat ative e indu dust stries es/ tourism sm / service ce centre • Skills s devel elopm pmen ent • Reside dential al attract activen venes ess • Accept: ‘creative shrinkage’ • Demolition of va vacant buildi dings gs • Conso solidat dation of plots s • Creat ative e (tem empo porar ary) use e of open spa paces/ ces/vacan cant buildi ding g for entrep epren eneu eurial activities es • Clean aning g and green ening • Allow w nature e to reclai aim space e
The current t econom omic ic resilien ience of Postmas asbu burg g
Tsantsabane GVA: 1995 I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]
Tsantsabane GVA: 2015 I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91]
South Africa GVA: 2015 Tsantsabane GVA: 2015 I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [QSIC 1] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I02: Mining and quarrying [QSIC 2] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I03: Manufacturing [QSIC 3] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I04: Electricity, gas and water [QSIC 4] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I05: Construction [QSIC 5] I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation I06: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [QSIC 6] [QSIC 6] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I07: Transport, storage and communication [QSIC 7] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I08: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [QSIC 8] I09: General government [QSIC 91] I09: General government [QSIC 91]
Population . Accordi ding to census 2011, there are 35 093 people ple in the municip icipality lity Of these, , 52, , 8% are Africa ican bl black, , 37, , 6% are coloured, , and d 8, 4% are white Of those aged d 20 years and d older, , 13,9 ,9% % had d some primary schooli ling 5,3% % had d comple pleted d prim imary 35,4 ,4% % had some seconda dary 25,4 ,4 had matric ic Only 6,4% 4% had a higher er qualif alifica ication
Population cont … . 13,7% had d no fo form m of schoo oolin ing 67% of the popul ulatio ion n consis ist between n 14 – 65 which equates to more than half of the population are young 4.4% of the total population equates to 65years 27% of the total population equates to 0 – 14 years
ZF Mgcawu cawu Populati tion on Growth th Highest growth rate in 2015 with a 2.6% population growth for the year Highest Gini-index in the district with 0.60 and Kgatelopele 0.59, respectively The 2 municipalities are the most unequal in the district In 2011 unemployment over 26% Youth unemployment already stood at 32%
Status of Basic services 2011 there were 9 839 households in the municipality 96,0% of the households have access to water. 68,9% of the population has access to flush toilet. 83,5% has access to internet facilities. 58,6% has access to refuse removal
ECONOMIC CLIMATE OR CURRENT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE Largest contributor to the district economy, contributing R 5.6 billion during 2016 Mining sector which accounts for 45.8% of the local economy Community services sector that contributes 17.6%
Findings gs – Review iew of the Postmasb sbur urg SDF
Calculation of change is either wrong, or unintelligible?
2002 2012 Change Number % Share Number % Share Number % Share Agriculture 1062 13.6 884 7.2 -178 178 -6.4 Mining 2821 36.1 6648 54.5 3827 3827 18.4 Manufacturing 316 4 322 2.6 6 -1.4 Electricity 41 0.5 37 0.3 -4 -0.2 Construction 207 2.7 250 2 43 43 -0.7 Trade 728 9.3 800 6.6 72 72 -2.7 Transport 255 3.3 244 2 -11 11 -1.3 Finance 235 3 275 2.2 40 40 -0.8 Community Services 1325 16.9 1850 15.2 525 525 -1.7 Households 828 10.6 899 7.4 71 71 -3.2 Total 7819 100 12209 100 4390 0 Correct calculations…
Despite starting with three population projections, only the high projection was used for all the remaining calculations in the document.
In 2016, Tsantsabane was estimated to have 11,821 households. This SDF plans on their being 26,755 households by 2035 – this is more than double the population of the municipality in 2016.
Manufactu turing Existing Proposed manufacturing area Existing Thi his plan propo poses es an an exten tension of of aroun und 160 160 Ha Ha to to the the ind ndus ustrial area eas. As As th the exi xisti ting ind ndus ustrial area eas are onl nly abo bout ut 70 70 Ha, the the propo posed ed expa pans nsion nea early tripl ples es the the ind ndus ustr trial footp tprint nt of of Postm tmasbu burg. Given ven tha hat manu nufactu turing ng GVA ha has dec declined ned from ZA ZAR 35 35 mi million in in 2002 to 2002 to ZA ZAR 31 31 million in in 2013 2013 (at cons nsta tant nt 2005 2005 prices es), as as sho hown in in Figu gure 3, it it is is hi high ghly unlikel kely that this new indus ustr trial land will be be developed ped witho hout (subs bsta tanti ntial) incenti ntive ves.
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