Purdue Scale-Up Conference USAID’s Toolkit for Assessing Scalability: Lessons from Development & Application Scaling Up to Reach Millions! Presentation by Richard Kohl & Mark Huisenga September 26, 2018
Ag Scalability Assessment Toolkit Background • Scaling case study series: – Zambia hybrid maize – Senegal irrigated rice – Kenya Purdue Improved Crop Storage bags – Bangladesh ag equipment – Uganda Kuroiler improved chicken breed • Early Generation Seed Studies (11 countries, 15 crops) on commercialization pathways • ASAT trials of 5 Innovation Lab technologies
Ag Scalability Assessment Tool Number of Scaling Categories Criteria in this Section Score Category The innovation addresses issues important to Development A. Objectives, National and Local policy priorities, and the needs of 4 0.0% Potential Adopters The innovation is credible to Key Leaders and Institutions in target B. 6 0.0% systems C. The innovation is relatively easy for target populations to adopt 5 0.0% D. There is a strong business case for potential users of the innovation 10 0.0% There is a strong business case for benefiting the market system and E. 7 0.0% institutions F. The needed public sector enabling environment is in place 7 0.0% A-F GRAND TOTAL 39 100.0% Scoring Factor Examples Scaling Up Is Harder (Score = 1) Neutral Factor (Score = 2) Scaling Up Is Easier (Score = 3) Can be tried by potential adopters at Can be tried by potential adopters at C.5 Requires initial large scale and (very) small scale (e.g. a few hundred small scale (under a hectare) with investment of over $200 square meters) with minimal initial significant investment ($25-200) investment (under $25) The innovation lasts 1-3 years after D. 10 The innovation must be renewed or which it must be repurchased or The innovation lasts for more than 3 years purchased every season or at least annually refurbished
Assessment Finding Samples Rift Valley Fever Vaccine Moisture Meter Agriculture Scaling Assessment by Agriculture Scaling Assessment Factor Category by Factor Category Addresses Addresses important issues Important Issues 100.0% 100.0% 88.9% 80.0% 80.0% Enabling 60.0% Innovation is 78.6% Public Sector 60.0% Innovation is environment credible 40.0% Environment Credible 40.0% 55.6% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 90.0% Market systems Easy to adopt Market Systems Easy to Adopt in place 63.3% User business Business Case for case Adopters
Scaling framework potential delivery pathways EXCLUDABILITY Uncertain Pull Potential for ‘pay to consume’ indicating marginal economic value market mand Pu demand Private Sector Dominant Public-Private Collaboration Dema 1 2 Costly / complex production Common Good Private Good A good that cannot be excluded, but cannot be used or A good that can be excluded and cannot be used or accessed accessed simultaneously by multiple consumers (e.g., range simultaneously by multiple consumers (e.g., food, fertilizer) land, open-pollinated variety) RIVALRY 4 3 Potential for competition in relation to Club Good Public Good marginal demand A good that can be excluded, but can be used or accessed A good that cannot be excluded and can be accessed simultaneously by multiple consumers until congestion simultaneously by multiple consumers (e.g. road, public occurs (e.g., irrigation system, warehouse) radio) Supply Pu Su Draft Push Niche Private Sector Public Sector Dominant Scaling pathways depend on economic characteristics of a good or service. Public sector investment can enable or crowd out scaling of private goods.
Scalability Decision Tree Is there a Business Case COMMERCIAL SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR YES YES for the Adopter (Strong Business Case (Conditional or (Producer/ Service for Adopter) Weak Business Provider)? Case for Adopter) Is there a NO Business Case for Commercial Can the Public Upstream Sector Meet Production & Are direct Public NO NO Upstream Distribution? Sector Production & NO Subsidies for Distribution Producers Possible? Needs? YES Manufacturers? Bundling or as YES a Service? Does the NO Commercial Sector Does the Public have Incentives Sector have to Drive NO Motivation & Scaling? Incentives to With Donor YES Drive Scaling? Support and/or Capacity Building? YES YES NO Is Public or Donor YES Support Feasible & NO Sufficient to Change the Business Case? NO Does the Public Sector have Is there a Business Does the Public Capability & Case for the NO Sector have Capability Resources to Commercial Sector YES & Resources to Provide to Create Create Demand? Training & YES Does Bundling or Demand? YES Tech Support? Converting to a Service Change NO the Business YES Case? YES *If yes, return to beginning and analyze innovation package. YES YES Is there a Business Case for the NO Commercial Sector to Provide Training & Tech Support? NO VIABLE PRIVATE PUBLIC PUBLIC-PRIVATE PATHWAYS Sector Sector Sector YES for Scaling Pathway Pathway PATHWAY Plausible Plausible Plausible
OUTCOMES & DASHBOARD 1. Binding and possible constraints 2. Special issues (not among criteria) 3. Recommended pathways 4. High-level scaling strategy 5. Current status and to-be-done Missing Information 7
Additional Resources Early Generation Seed Studies • https://www.agrilinks.org/events/strengthening-early-generation- seed-systems-africa-and-beyond • https://www.africaleadftf.org/2016/09/05/early-generation-seed- studies-rwanda-zambia-kenya-nigeria/ Scaling Ag Case Studies (synopsis) • https://www.agrilinks.org/library/synthesis-report-review- successful-scaling-agricultural-technologies Partnering for Innovation Reports • Success Factors for Commercializing Agricultural Research: Geared towards researchers and donors. • Companion Guide for the Private Sector: Geared towards private sector businesses of all sizes. • Companion Guide for Project Managers: Geared towards managers of projects that involve commercialization of publicly- funded research.
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