Some Empirical Evidence on Provisional Voting Prepared for the Presidential Commission on Election Administration Daron Shaw University of Texas at Austin August 8, 2013
Provisional Ballots Provisional Ballots Cast versus Counted 3,000,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,900,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,235,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 821,000 800,000 630,000 500,000 0 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 Source: Election Administration and Voting Study, 2004-12.
Provisional Ballots Provisional Ballots as a % of all Statewide Ballots (Top-Six States) 2012 2008 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 DC CA AZ AK UT CO Source: Election Administration and Voting Survey, 2004-12.
Provisional Ballots Provisional ballots issued, Provisional ballots rejected, as percentage of all ballots cast as percentage of all ballots cast DC AZ CA 10 KS DC CA 1 AZ UT AK 5 UT OH NC IL OH TX KS NV MD NJ MD NE CO CO NJ PA NE MA RI OK TN MT NC LA FL VA AL 1 PA NV MO AR IN HI TX RI FL .1 DE SD WA MA OK AL AK LA VA IA TN AR MO IA MT WA CT IN HI SD DE MI .1 OR CT MI ME KY .01 KY .01 OR VT WI WI .01 .1 1 5 10 .01 .1 1 Pct. 2010 Pct. 2010 Source: Election Administration and Voting Survey, 2004-12.
Provisional Ballots Why were provisional ballots rejected? • Unregistered (45%) • Registered, at wrong precinct (11%) • Registered, at wrong jurisdiction (7%) • No identification (4%) • Incomplete/Illegible ballot (4%0 • Other (32%) Source: Election Administration and Voting Survey, 2004-12.
Provisional Ballots Who has a problem at the polling place? • In 2012, 2 percent reported experiencing a problem at the polls. • 19 percent of these reported casting a provisional ballot. • Those under 30 years of age (4.6% reported experiencing a problem), African-Americans (3.1%), and Latinos (3.0%) were above the mean. Source: 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study.
Recommend
More recommend
