Promotion of seniors’ employability and postponed retirement decisions Boris Majcen, Damjan Kavaš, Institute for Economic Research Ljubljana, 4th July 2016 The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
AIMS Conduction of analysis, including financial estimations, and preparation of recommendations for effective measures and models for the new strategy with the aims: • to improve the situation of older people in the labour market in Slovenia in terms of raising the employment rate of older people; • to raise the exit age from the labour market by the pension reform. The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
GOALS • The main goal is to identify adequate measures and actions, which would improve sustainable employability of elderly as well as to support postponement of retirement decisions in favor of active participation in the labour market. • The additional goal is to determine responsibilities of relevant stakeholders to design and implement certain measures/actions/reforms, to identify important linkages between different stakeholders to achieve adequate synergies, together with indicators to assess the progress in achieving foreseen goals. The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
Process • Statistics, projections • Existing analyses, strategic documents, good practices: Situation different dimensions analysis • Questionnaires • Meetings with stakeholders Additional information • Assessment of existing measures • Measures proposed Measures proposed The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES • Increasing life expectancy (2013-2060): +5.6 years women, +7.2 years men (2012-2012: +2.8 Y (W), +4.5 Y (M) • Fertility: after 2. WW 32-34.000 – till 2003 decrease to 17.000 • Fertility rate only 1.2 in 2003, increased to 1.55 in 2013 • Within last 25 years 20% less born children • In the next decades about 125.000 less persons in active age • Lower number of women in fertility age – less new born children • Negative effects on labour market and long-term sustainability of public finances – roots in ancient past (half a century ago) The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES - MIGRATIONS • 1993-2006 net migrations 2.500 persons per year • 2007 in 2008 net migrations around 15.000 persons per year • During the economic crisis substantial decrease: 2010-2013 only 700 persons/year • In 2014 negative net migrations flows • EUROPOP2013 assumption: net migrations from 4.000 – 6.000 persons/year • Would Slovenia succeed to attract such a number of net migrants in real life? The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
DEMOGRAPHY – THE NUMBER OF POPULATION • The number – minimal changes • Age structure – substantial changes • The share of population 65+ will almost duble in the next 35 years! 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Number of population by individual age groups P 0-19 583245 559355 456145 393342 415505 406290 383348 405090 408511 P 20-64 1087063 1224878 1255897 1316712 1241943 1158303 1115021 1046007 1031963 P 65+ 214169 213857 278230 339207 430428 522518 580098.5 618296 599208 Total 1884477 1998090 1990272 2049261 2087876 2087111 2078467 2069393 2039681 Share of population in individual age groups according to the total population number P 0-19 30.9 28.0 22.9 19.2 19.9 19.5 18.4 19.6 20.0 P 20-64 57.7 61.3 63.1 64.3 59.5 55.5 53.6 50.5 50.6 P 65+ 11.4 10.7 14.0 16.6 20.6 25.0 27.9 29.9 29.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
DEMOGRAPHY – Alternative variants of dem. projections The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
EMPLOYMENT RATES The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF THE PENSION SYSTEM The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT RATES Male 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 50-54 78.4 77.8 81.3 80.7 82.2 83.4 84.2 85.1 86.1 86.1 55-59 63.3 72.0 72.3 74.0 74.9 76.2 77.4 78.8 80.4 80.5 60-64 25.9 45.0 51.4 50.7 56.3 60.2 63.1 66.2 69.4 69.5 65-69 10.8 11.0 19.1 21.5 27.6 33.8 38.9 44.0 49.3 49.3 70-74 6.0 7.1 7.2 11.9 14.7 16.4 20.0 23.3 26.7 26.7 Women 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 50-54 77.2 78.1 81.6 79.7 80.3 81.1 81.8 82.3 82.9 83.0 55-59 45.3 63.4 71.6 73.6 73.4 74.5 75.7 77.1 78.5 78.6 60-64 11.3 27.2 44.6 49.2 55.0 58.2 61.1 64.4 67.8 67.9 65-69 7.0 5.1 10.6 17.2 25.3 31.5 36.4 41.6 47.0 47.1 70-74 2.7 3.5 2.2 4.9 10.0 12.7 16.4 19.8 23.5 23.5 The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
CHANGES IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
100 25 50 75 0 EU-28 Euro area (EA-19) Sweden Employment rates in the EU-28 in 2014 by age group Germany Netherlands Denmark United Kingdom Austria Estonia Czech Republic Finland Luxembourg NUMBERS 15 – 24 years Latvia Lithuania France Slovenia Portugal 25 – 54 years Malta Cyprus Belgium Hungary 55 – 64 years Ireland Poland Bulgaria Romania Slovakia Spain Italy Croatia Greece the European Union. received funding from Ageing in Slovenia has The Active and Healthy
NUMBERS The employment rate among the Slovenian population aged 55-64 is distinguished by: • Sectors: a higher proportion in activities of "Agriculture, forestry and fishing", "Electricity, gas and steam, and water supply," "Sewerage, waste management and remediation activities„ , "Real estate„ , a growing proportion of older people in manufacturing. • Form of employment: a higher proportion of people in employment aged over 55 years among the self-employed than among employees. • Regions: the existence of considerable differences between the regions where the high proportion of people in employment aged over 55 stands out in the Coast-Karst region, Pomurje and Podravje region. The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
REASONS • Early retirement • Corporate bankruptcies • Low educational structure of the older people • Lack of modern competencies • Negative attitude of employers towards older employees (prejudices) • Inadequate working conditions for seniors • Insufficient incentives to prolong employment • Non-flexible labour market for older people • Lowering the inclusion of older people in active employment policy • Intergenerational conflicts • The public sector represents a negative appearance of the treatment of older employees ("forced" retirement; employee as an expense) • The participation of retired persons in the informal economy The Active and Healthy Ageing in Slovenia has received funding from the European Union.
Macro-economic Overall employment factors of influence prospects NGOs + Older persons ‘ representatives Self-promotion of Labour market Rising care workers/employees policies obligations Employees Person-environment Threats to perspective fiscal Labour market sustainability Family and mobility care policies Private social Workability Social insurance Good practice innovation Quality Quality of work of life Extending Health Comprehensive/ 6 working lives User- Promotion/ Integrated + participation 5 protection Inter- Threat to approaches Promotion of lifelong generational Intergenera- Disadvantaged Healthy learnign solidarity tional groups ageing solidarity 4 Life course Financing the Public social 3 Employability Employers perspective „ graying of the insurance population “ Tax policies Promotion of 2 Lifelong learning Intergenerational 1 perspective National policies Pension/retirement Social partners policies Local policies European policies Overall Demographic National policies Structural changes in situation paid work
Social context, economy Labour market Retirement Domestic domain Motivation work early Health finances Work Pension legislation entitlement age organisation Work ability late Knowledge work Social position Lifestyle & skills
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