SEMAP 2018 Ozone Projections and Sensitivity to NO x & VOC Emissions Prepared by: Talat Odman - Georgia Tech Yongtao Hu - Georgia Tech Uma Shankar - UNC Jim Boylan - Georgia EPD Presented to: SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Workgroup April 2, 2014
Modeling Overview • 2007 and 2018 annual modeling with CMAQv5.01 – 36 km (CONUS) and 12 km grids – Updated mixing coefficients – Updated land-water interface • 2018 future year projections with MATS software (RRFs and DVFs) – Ozone - presented here – PM 2.5 - will be available soon … – Regional Haze - will be available soon … 2
SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain
Calculation of DVF • Ran MATS with 2007 typical as “baseline” and 2018 base- case as “forecast” to get RRFs – RRF = (2018 base /2007 typ ) • DVF = DVC RRF • Calculated four different ways: – Design Value Current (DVC) • 2007 DV (2005-2007) • 5-year (2005-2009) weighted average – Relative Response Factor (RRF) • Monitor (1 x 1) cell • 3 x 3 cell maximum 4
2018 DVFs: 3 3 RRF & 2005-2009 DVC 5
2018 DVFs: 3 3 RRF & 2005-2009 DVC (with UAA) 6
2018 DVFs: 1 1 RRF & 2005-2009 DVC 7
2018 DVFs: 1 1 RRF & 2005-2009 DVC (with UAA) 8
2007 vs. 5-year weighted average DVC 9
3 3 Max vs. 1 1 Cell RRFs 10
Ozone Sensitivities • Start with 2018 modeling results • Perform emission sensitivity runs – Ozone season (5 months) on 12-km grid – Statewide 30% emission reductions • NO x and VOCs individually – 14 geographic regions • Ten individual SEMAP states • Maryland • MANE-VU (minus MD), LADCO, CENRAP – 2 precursors x 14 regions = 28 model runs 11
VOC/NO x Sensitivity Updates Previous Sensitivity Modeling New Sensitivity Modeling CMAQv4.4 CMAQv5.01 1-Month summer episode 5-Month ozone season VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseD SEMAP 2018 SEMAP-wide VOC reductions State-wide VOC reductions County/state NO x reductions State-wide NO x reductions MOBILE6 MOVES Absolute difference Absolute difference RRF approach (MATS) >70 ppb cutoff (based on >70 ppb cutoff (based on modeled base year values) modeled future year values) 12
Sensitivity Charts http://semap.ce.gatech.edu/node/1841 Charts of Ozone Sensitivities • Daily 8-hr maximum ozone responses to 30% NO x reductions – By site • All days • Days with typical 2007 8-hr maximum ozone above 75 ppb • Days with baseline 2018 8-hr maximum ozone above 70 ppb – By state • Site averages of all days • Site averages of days with typical 2007 8-hour maximum ozone above 75 ppb • Site averages of days with baseline 2018 8-hour maximum ozone above 70 ppb • Daily 8-hr maximum ozone responses to 30% VOC reductions – By site • All days • Days with typical 2007 8-hour maximum ozone above 75 ppb • Days with baseline 2018 8-hr maximum ozone above 70 ppb – By state 1313 • Site averages of all days • Site averages of days with typical 2007 8-hour maximum ozone above 75 ppb • Site averages of days with baseline 2018 8-hour maximum ozone above 70 ppb 13
Sensitivity Charts (continued) http://semap.ce.gatech.edu/node/1841 Charts of Ozone Sensitivities • Design value responses to 30% NO x reductions – By state • Sites with at least one day of baseline 2018 8-hr maximum ozone above 70 ppb • Design value responses to 30% VOC reductions – By state • Sites with at least one day of baseline 2018 8-hr maximum ozone above 70 ppb 14
Site Sensitivities • For each of the 674 ozone monitoring sites in the domain • NO x sensitivities – All days (updated) – Days above 75 ppb in 2007 (updated) – Days above 70 ppb in 2018 (new) • VOC sensitivities – All days (updated) – Days above 75 ppb in 2007 (updated) – Days above 70 ppb in 2018 (new) • Here: – 13-121-0055 (Confederate Ave., Atlanta, GA) – 24-025-1001 (Baltimore, MD) 15
(All Days) 16
(All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 17
(All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 18
(All Days) 19
(All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 20
(All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 21
(All Days) 22
(All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 23
(All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 24
(All Days) 25
(All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 26
(All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 27
State Summaries • For each of the 31 states in the domain – For sites with 2018 days above 70 ppb • NO x and VOC sensitivities – Absolute sensitivity • D O 3 averaged over 2018 days above 70 ppb – Relative sensitivity • D DVF using MATS 28
Calculation of D O 3 (Absolute Sensitivity) • Difference of daily max. 8-hr O 3 between 2018 sensitivity case and 2018 base case • D O 3 = 2018 sens 2018 base • Averaged over days with 2018 base daily max. 8-hr O 3 above 70 ppb 29
Calculation of D DVF (Relative Sensitivity) • Ran MATS • 2018 base case as “baseline” and 2018 sensitivity as “forecast” • 5-year weighted average DVC and monitor (1 1) cell RRF • For each site in the state with at least one day above 70 ppb in 2018 • RRF = (2018 sens /2018 base ) • D DVF = (DVF*RRF) – DVF = DVF*(RRF 1) 30
(Absolute Sensitivity) 31
(Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 32
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(Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 34
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Summary • In general, anthropogenic NO x emission reductions are much more effective at reducing 8-hour ozone concentrations compared to anthropogenic VOC emission reductions. • The home state typically has the largest impact on its own monitors. Neighboring states have the next largest impact. • Absolute sensitivities ( D O 3 ) and relative sensitivities ( D DVF) are very similar. 75
Next Steps • Run MATS to generate 2018 projections for PM 2.5 – RRF approach based on EPA guidance – Average 3 3 array and monitor (1 1) cell – 2007 DV and 5-year weighted 2005-2009 DV • Run MATS to generate 2018 projections for Regional Haze – RRF approach based on EPA guidance – Average 3 3 array and monitor (1 1) cell – 5-year (2005-2009) straight average 20% Worst and 20% Best days 76
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