Prognostics and Health Management of Electronic Systems 2 nd SRESA - PDF document

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Prognostics and Health Management of Electronic Systems 2 nd SRESA Workshop: Reliability & Life Assessment of Electronic Systems – Methods and Techniques, BARC Training School Complex, Mumbai, 6 - 7, December 2012. P.V. Varde Professor, HBNI & Head, SE&MTD Section, RRSD, BARC, Mumbai Email:varde@barc.gov.in Outline • Introduction • Reliability of Electronic Systems • PHM Approaches • Tools and Methods • PHM Performance • Issues • Conclusions You can initiate a PHM programme, right after you reach your place of work, later you can work on reducing uncertainties in L9 1 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' What the loud and fatal accidents whisper .... • The Washington Post - June 26, 2009 • A Metro Train Control System Fails a Post- Crash Test - Deadliest Crash in Metrorail History • Two Red Line Metrorail trains crashed June 22, 2009 between the Fort Totten and Takoma Park stations, killing nine, including one train operator. • A train control system that should have prevented Monday's deadly Metro crash failed in a test conducted by federal investigators, officials said yesterday, suggesting that a crucial breakdown of technology sent one train slamming into another. • Metro Crash Investigation Turns Up Electronic Control 'Anomalies‘ • Federal investigators said yesterday that they found "anomalies" in a key component of the electronic control system along the Metro track north of Fort Totten, suggesting that computers might have sent one Red Line train crashing into another. Rail Transport In the last 10 years (1994-2004) on Indian Railways, 62% of the accidents have been caused due to failure of Railway staff, 22% have been caused due to failure of other than Railway staff, failure of equipment has contributed 8%, sabotage has contributed 3% and balance 5 % have been contributed by miscellaneous reasons. Most of the accidents due to human error are preceded by failure of asset. Train Accident Target: To achieve reduction in rate of accidents per million train kilometers from the present level of 0.44 to 0.17 by the year 2013 More and more automation is required to prevent the human errors. L9 2 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Nuclear Systems Manche, France - 21 Jan 2002: Control systems and safety valves fail after improper installation of condensers, forcing a two-month shutdown, - Wikipedia database, Loss 102 Million dollar March 9, 1985 Athens, Alabama, USA; Instrumentation systems malfunction during start-up, which led to suspension of operations at all three Browns Ferry Units. Resulting Loss of 1.83 millions Level 1 PSA Shows that Impact factor of Instrumentation on Plant Safety is very High compared to other safety and process systems Aviation Electronic devices may cause plane crashes - and older aircraft are especially vulnerable By DAILY MAIL REPORTER UPDATED: 17:29 GMT, 21 January 2011 Investigation: There is no definitive way to tell the effects of electronic device on aircraft instruments but it thought to be a factor in several crashes Causes Of Aviation Accidents Pilot error and mechanical failures are by far the most common causes of aviation accidents. Other common causes of these devastating accidents include bad weather, air traffic control error, bird strikes, fires in the cargo hold or cabin, design flaws, sabotage, fuel starvation, high jacking, lighting problems, and pilot incapacitation. It is estimated that approximately 80 percent of commercial aviation accidents occur shortly before, during or after takeoff or landing. The chance of a mid-flight collision is far more remote but these incidents do occur. L9 3 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Space Indian rocket explodes after take-off 11:02PM GMT 25 Dec 2010 Live television images showed the rocket exploding into plumes of smoke and fire less than a minute after it launched from the Sriharikota space center in Andhra Pradesh state this afternoon. The Indian Space Reserach Organisation said it believed the explosion was caused by an electronic failure seconds after take-off that led to the flight taking a higher angle. http://www.telegraph.co.uk Space electronics - Failure is not an option Similar other consequences … On June 10th, 1999 a 16-inch diameter steel pipeline operated by the now-defunct Olympic Pipeline Co. ruptured near Bellingham, Washington, flooding two local creeks with 237,000 gallons of gasoline. The gas ignited into a mile-and-a-half river of fire that claimed the lives of two 10-year-old boys and an 18- year-old man, and injured eight others. Electronic-voting system failures lead to call for public clearinghouse - FCW: The business of federal technology , Sept. 15, 2010 A NEWLY INSTALLED electronic voting and microphone system at the Scottish Parliament crashed yesterday just before MSPs were about to cast their votes on the day's business. The £270,000 system, put in over the summer recess, went down minutes after ….. L9 4 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Reliability Prediction for Electronics • Qualification / Testing of Components • Handbook Approaches (e.g. MIL-217 series, etc) • System Specific Data • Physics-of Failure • Prognostics and Health Management What is PHM There are two elements of PHM “Prognostics” and “Health Management” Prognosis deals with prediction of Reliability of components / products /systems considering life cycle loads postulated for actual conditions. The scope of prognostics covers sensing, recording, analysis considering operational profile and assessment of health. The assessment of degradation trends by precursor parameter monitoring over the life cycle of the components and predicting the incipient fault well in advance. Health Management deals with optimizing & scheduling the surveillance & test interval preventive maintenance management / condition monitoring programme keeping in view operational and safety objectives L9 5 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Why PHM • Systems are becoming more and more complex and miniaturised - automatic fault prediction - Recovery • Even though Safety is overriding aspects in the open competitive market plant and system performance are critical factors to meet the bottom line • Advance health management can provide required safety and availability targets PHM – An Overview Health Level -1 Prognostics Manageme Design nt Engineeri and Life ng Operation Prediction Statistical (Surveillan ttf Analysis ce and CM) Data Electronic / Control Prognostic System Algorithms Identified FT - Advanced warning for PHM Parameter H of failures On-line - Fault detection and Sensors identification Pre- for - Stress profile generation for design tracking Time Legends : FTH : Failure Threshold at conceptual design precursor PM : Preventive Maint. CM Condition Monitoring paramete r Test / PM. / CM Level -1 Prognostics Strategies L9 6 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' How it works – is Monitoring the trick.. Failure Life Consumption y t i r e v e s d e n g i s e D Loss of Time Designed Life useful life Potential Risk Failure without Life Consumption Failure Life Consumption monitoring y Designed low severity t i r e v e s h g i H Designed Life Actual Actual Designed Life Life Life CALCE Approach to PHM L9 7 of 13

Workshop on 'Reliability and Life Assessment of Electronic Systems - Methods & Techniques' Prognostics / PHM Implementation Fuses and Monitoring and Physics-of- Canaries reasoning Failure / Damage modelling Life cycle loads : Thermal : temperature .. Monitoring Monitoring Mechanical: vibration, shock, stress… environment Usage Chemical : Chemical environment … Physical: radiation, electromagnetic Conditions interference, EMPs Electrical: current , voltage, power, … • Fuses are the traditional devices used to protect the electronic circuit from overloads and transients • Similarly Relay based protections devices also used in modern electronic / electrical systems • Monitoring and reasoning approach is very close to cognitive reasoning for in incipient failure • The physics-of-failure and damage modelling approach aims to predicting the remaining useful life based on the trend in precursor parameter indicating of level of degradation Selecting of Precursor parameter PHM Sensors • Sensor types: Thermal, Mechanical, Humidity, Chemical Optical, Magnetic Sensor System: may be comprised of sensor element, onboard A/D convertor and memory, embedded Pt-100 miniature computational capability, data temperature sensors transmission and power source. (Often WSN may be preferred) Sensor Performance: Accuracy, linearity, precision, response time, stabilization time, measurement range, etc. Thin Film Detector - Specific Issues: very low resistance of Flat Pt100 Elements the order of milli-ohms measurements and Surface Probes require special arrangement / set up that too in on-line mode for series of contacts – It requires designing a circuit for this purpose. L9 8 of 13