Presented by Shamira Huluman PSETA: CEO
Outline Introduction What questions are we trying to answer here? How do we know what skills we need? Proposed Sector Skills Strategy What is the current and future state of demand for skills? What is the current supply of skills? Priority Skills Interventions Conclusion 2
Introduction: PSETA Scope and Profile • PSETA scope and mandate for ‘transversal skills’ across national and provincial governments, as well as national and provincial public entities (not classified in scopes of other SETAs) and parliament/ legislatures • Any function that is exclusively ‘business’ of government (e.g. DIRCO, Home Affairs, Presidency, DTI) • Overarching strategic imperative is building the skills for a “more developmental” state • Central to this is building the HRD function as integral and strategic focus of top management 3
What questions are we here to answer? • If we want to make “the Public Service a Training Space”, what training should happen in this space? • These questions are addressed in the PSETA Sector Skills Plan • The “policy drivers” (what the state needs to deliver) are the starting point • The analysis culminates in the priority skills interventions until 2017/2020 • Who needs to do what to “professionalise” the public service? • These questions are addressed in the draft PSETA Sector Skills Strategy • PSETA needs to do this with you, not for you. Our role is to support your efforts. 4
How do we know what skills we need? • Critical Skills (“top up needs of existing employees) established through HR Connect skills audit • Labour market “signals” used PERSAL funded vacancy rates/turnover rates to “point” to possible scarcities • Labour market forecasts combined PERSAL/Stats SA/other data to project future scarcities • Growth demand forecasts regressed macroeconomic variables to establish reliable growth coefficients • Replacement demand forecasts combined PERSAL data (such as age profile of employees) with other information The above quantitative findings now need to be taken through stakeholder processes. PSETA proposes to establish “task teams” of employers experiencing each shortage/ providers who deliver these skills. Task teams will aim to understand why we have each shortage and what should be done about it. 5
Current State of Skills in the Public Service • “ In relation to the transversal skills, DPSA statistics suggest that roughly a third of the 6 266 people appointed to Senior Management Service positions in the past three years fell short of the competency requirements for their positions” • “Some 77% of Public Service employees hold at best a school -leavers qualification and a high percentage hold less than this. Less than 13% hold a post- graduate qualification”. • “High vacancy rates in many cases directly linked to departmental performance gaps” • Looming scarcities due to growth demand (new jobs opening up) and replacement demand (existing employees leaving) 6
Some Specifics (HR Connect Data) Task Proficiency of Existing Employees OFO Major Total number Total number Total number Total number Total number Group Name of people of people of people of people of people surveyed falling into the falling into the falling into the falling into the 25% quartile 50% quartile 75% quartile 100% quartile Managers 19 123 4 393 2 328 2 857 6 022 Professionals 62 700 12 970 10 015 12 164 15 440 Technicians & associate 34 283 7 925 4 512 4 480 8 732 professionals Clerical support 32 684 8 475 6 988 7 907 9 316 workers Service & 49 462 9 261 6 348 7 202 19 141 sales workers Skilled agricultural 3 722 1 203 608 484 1 454 workers Plant and machine 3 379 736 349 562 1 814 operators Elementary 32 361 8 021 3 354 4 261 16 106 occupations 7
Some Specifics (HR Connect Data) Knowledge Proficiency of Existing Employees OFO Major Total number Total number Total number Total number Total number Group Name of people of people of people of people of people surveyed falling into the falling into the falling into the falling into the 25% quartile 50% quartile 75% quartile 100% quartile Managers 18 458 5 533 3 092 3 158 6 669 Professionals 59 991 14 551 16 148 11 183 18 078 Technicians & associate 34 209 9 625 7 523 9 593 7 454 professionals Clerical support 33 710 7 526 7 206 8 039 10 926 workers Service & 41 734 15 296 9 021 7 816 9 600 sales workers Skilled agricultural 6 025 1 603 1 058 1 256 2 108 workers Plant and machine 3 202 503 591 791 1 317 operators Elementary 30 948 6 785 4 219 4 470 15 474 occupations 8
Labour Market Signals: Current Vacancy Rates “All scarce skills manifest as vacancies; but not all vacancies are scarce skills” – Persistent and pervasive vacancy rates of 40 – 100% in key professional and artisan occupations point to “absolute” scarcities – Persistent and pervasive vacancies in IT point more to IT professionals choosing to be service providers rather than as state employees (“relative scarcity”) – Persistent and pervasive vacancy rates in HRM/HRD probably do not reflect scarce skills, rather top management not taking HRD seriously – OPSC reports that “more than half of the national and provincial departments at the SMS/professional level have a vacancy rate of above 10 % 9
Future Skills Needs: Growth Demand Calculations • Growth demand refers to likely new jobs that will emerge in the Public Service • PSETA Skills Forecasting Model established a growth demand of 41 187 in 2012, increasing each year to 46 707 by 2015 • If all vacancies are filled, these numbers increase to 51 760 for 2012 and 58 695 for 2015 • PSETA developed the National model and 9 provincial models, which forecast all occupations in all provinces from now to 2017 10
Future Skills Needs: Replacement Demand “Replacement demand” refers to jobs that will need to be filled because people are getting old (retirement demand), sick (mortality and morbidity), leaving the country (emigration), changing jobs (mobility), etc. • Currently, 35 129 employees are scheduled to retire by 2015; and a further 84 149 by 2020. This represents a total of 119 678 people – almost 10% of public service employees. • The ASSA statistics for HIV prevalence, overlaid on the demographics of public sector employment, suggest that more than 100 000 public sector employees are likely to be infected, hence vulnerable • When combined with (horizontal and vertical) mobility and emigration rates, the total public sector replacement demand over the coming decade may be in excess of 20%, or more than 200 000 employees • Turnover rates often highest in scarce skill occupations, may point to morale, job satisfaction, competition for these skills with private sector 11
Demand-Side Capacity to address the problems • Top management still trying to send the skills problem away to providers/SETAs rather than playing their part; high HRM/HRD vacancy rates suggest the problem isn’t “owned” • Serious skills gaps amongst existing HRM/HRD staff – More than half of current training and development employees have less than 50% task proficiency; almost none have all the knowledge they need (HR Connect) • Systemic weaknesses include: – High submission rates of WSPs (69% - 2012) however content poor; poor/no alignment between Departmental Strategic Plans and WSPs/ HR Plans – Misalignment between WSPs and HR Connect data, Quarterly Monitoring Reports and Annual Training Reports; lack of an integrated information system; lack of standardised OFOs – Over-emphasis on HRD (delivery of training) and less on HRP (planning and identification of needs), hence training is not demand-led and responding to departments’ strategic imperatives 12
Supply of skills in the sector • Enrolment in priority occupations lower than required (e.g. total of 1500 engineers per annum vs demand for 3000 in water sector alone) • But retention and achievement rates (return on investment) can often be improved (many public service employees not completing training) • But large pool of unemployed graduates points to serious “supply - demand mismatches” and need to build the pipeline into the sector • PSETA has made substantial progress the past year within its limited budget:- Streamlining the qualifications (41 000 jobs reduced to 250 OFOs) Identifying priority qualifications required in the sector and developing these (currently developing 6 occupational qualifications through QCTO), accrediting providers, approving programs, registering assessors 13
Priority Skills Interventions Priority Skills interventions to systemically address needs – arising from the SSP data include: The Compulsory Induction Programs (CIPs) RPL (including Artisan development) Improving retirement and success planning Raising the base level of learning in the sector Exploring and formalising “unaccredited’ training More equitable distributions of resources (beneficiaries of funding) Training unemployed people (opening PS as training space) Building supply-side capacity (PALAMA as School of Government, provincial academies, sector academies, public schools, FETs and HEI provision) Improving the return on investment in training Capacitating the state to lead skills development across sectors. 14
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