Presented by: Jeffrey A. Harrell, CFA
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2013 Investment Review
Major Market Index Performance Stock Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average: +29.7% S&P 500: +32.4% Russell 2000: 38.8% NASDAQ: 40.1% DJ US Select REIT: +12.6% MSCI EAFE: 22.8% Nikkei 225: +57.0% Bond Indexes Barclays Aggregate: -2.0% 20+ Year Treasury: -14.0% TIPS: -9.0% S&P National AMT-Free Muni: -3.3% BofA High Yield Master II: +7.4%
2014 Outlook
Wall Street Estimates S&P 500 Estimate: 1,950 5.5% Above 2013 Close Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimate: $121 13% Above 2013 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate: +2.7% 2013 GDP Growth: +2.1% Unemployment Rate Estimate: 6.5% 2013 Unemployment Rate: 6.7% 10 Year Note Estimate: 3.5% 3.0% As Of 12/31/13
Important Metrics To Track In 2014 Earnings Growth (See Handout) Access data at http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500 (Additional Info - Index Earnings) 10 Year Treasury Yield Access data at http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^tnx Investor Sentiment Access AAII Index data at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey Consumer Confidence Access data at http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
Portfolio Managers Are “All In”
Investor Sentiment Very Bullish Source: American Associate of Individual Investors
Investors Still Underinvested
Valuations Compelling
Consumer Confidence Rising Source: Wells Capital Management
Household Debt Improving
Interest Rates Are Key Sources: BEA, U.S. Treasury Direct
Banks Reducing Treasury Exposure
Wage Pressures Building
Bonds Likely To Remain Under Pressure Still A Vital Component To A Well Diversified Portfolio Keep Interest Rate Exposure To A Minimum Use Credit Sectors To Enhance Yield Use Active Managers, Not Passive Indexes Consider Alternative Investments Corporate Only Funds, Market Neutral Funds, Hybrid Funds Research available www.morningstar.com
Monitoring Investment Performance
Benchmark Your Performance Large Caps (SPDR S&P 500) – SPY Mid Caps (iShares Russell Mid Cap) – IWR Small Caps (iShares Russell 2000) – IWM International (iShares MSCI EAFE) – EFA Investment Grade Bonds (iShares Core Total US Bond) – AGG High Yield Bonds (iShares High Yield Corporate) – HYG Hypothetical 60/40 Benchmark (2013 Return) 30% SPY (+32.3%) 10% IWR (+34.5%) 10% IWM (+38.7%) 2013 Return: 19.1% 10% EFA (+21.4%) 30% AGG (-2.0%) 10% HYG (+5.8%)
Calculating Your Investment Return There Are Two Ways To Calculate Your Investment Return Internal Rate of Return (IRR): Used To Determine Your Personal Rate Of Return, Which Is Heavily Influenced By Cash Flows Time Weighted Return (TWR): Used To Determine The Rate Of Return On Your Portfolio For Comparison Purposes, Negating The Effect Of Cash Flows Example: $50,000 Investment On 1/1 $100,000 Value on 6/30 $900,000 Addition On 7/1 (Total Of $1,000,000 On 7/1) $950,000 Value on 12/31 Investment Performance: IRR=0% TWR=90%, WHY??????? IRR = Personal Return Or Gain/Investment ($0/$950,000) TWR = Linked Period Return (Period 1:100% Period 2: -5%) Calculation: (1+Period 1)*(1+Period 2)*(1+Period 3)… -1=TWR Calculator available in member center for McGill Advisory members
Investment Return Calculator
Active vs. Passive Investing
Passive Vs. Active Management Mutual Funds and Private Managers commonly use active and passive management strategies Passive management – Buying stocks to mirror the index and perform the same as the index Active management – Buying stocks to beat the index according to the fund or manager objective
Investor Returns Equity: 4.3%
Investor Returns Versus Actual Fund Returns • Investors Cost Themselves 1.50% Due To Poorly Timing When They Invest In Various Mutual Funds Data Provided by: Morningstar
Track Records As Of 12/31/13 Large Cap (S&P 500 Index) Outperformed 59% Over Past 1 Year Outperformed 77% Over Past 3 Years Outperformed 74% Over Past 5 Years Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index) Outperformed 65% Over Past 1 Year Outperformed 57% Over Past 3 Years Outperformed 55% Over Past 5 Years International (MSCI EAFE Index) Outperformed 68% Over Past 1 Year Outperformed 77% Over Past 3 Years Outperformed 49% Over Past 5 Years
Active Management (Active Share & Tracking Error) Active Share Measures How Different The Holdings Are Of A Manager As Compared To Its Benchmark Higher Active Share Managers Have Outperformed By 1.26% After Fees Target Funds With Greater Than 80% Active Share Active Share Helps To Eliminate “Closet Indexers” Tracking Error Measures Performance Deviation From A Benchmark Tracking Error Identifies Degree Of Active Management Target Funds With Greater Than 4% (Large Cap) Or 6% (Small Cap)
Asset Location
Choosing the Right Location for Investments Case Study – Apple 1984: $50,000 investment 2013: $9,103,872 value IRA Account: Taxable Account: 39.6% income tax = $3,605,134 23.8% capital gains tax = $2,154,215 Net = $5,498,738 Net = $6,949,050 Investors can generate as much as 15% to 25% more after-tax wealth over time by allocating their investments optimally between tax-deferred and taxable accounts The reverse is also true as realized losses in tax-deferred accounts cannot be written off General Rule: Stocks In Taxable Accounts, Bonds In Retirement Plans Visit the website below for a thorough analysis http://www.fpanet.org/journal/TheAssetLocationDecisionRevisited/
Asset Location Recommendations Invest Taxable Accounts In Individual Stocks And Tax Efficient Stock Mutual Funds Invest Retirement Plans In Bonds and Bond Funds Blend Two Strategies Together To Create Desired Asset Allocation Additional Benefits Gifting Of Highly Appreciated Stocks From Taxable Accounts Writing Off Losses In Taxable Accounts Better Control Of Tax Bill Every Year
Recap Keep An Eye On Earnings, Interest Rates And Sentiment in 2014 Reduce Interest Rate Exposure, But Balance This With A Less Risky Stock Portfolio Consider The Benefit Of Passive Investing, Or Be Prepared To Research High Active Share Managers Allocate Your Assets In The Most Tax Efficient Manner By Putting Stocks In Taxable Accounts And Bonds In Retirement Plan Accounts
Thank You For Your Attention!! By Jeffrey A. Harrell, CFA jharrell@mcgilladvisors.com 866.727.6100
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