9/16/2019 Presentation Outline Speakers Experience 1. Opening questions 2. Systems management – Types of systems; study of systems; evidence based 3. practise Main influence on Climate Change - Small Water Cycle 4. Key features of Restorative/Regenerative Agriculture 5. Phil Mulvey Why is Australian and in particular WA landscapes different? 6. What is the system problem with Australian Agriculture – Cropping and 7. Grazing Increase farm ecological outcomes and revenue 8. Define measuring success 9. 10. Experience of Speaker B. Sc Agric (Soil Science), M. App Sc. (Hydrogeology, Environmental Geology) Experience in Commercialisation ◦ Holder of 2 patents ◦ Founder or Co-founder of Environmental Earth Sciences, Waste Science, EESI Contracting, 3D Ag, Green Property, Carbon Exchange, Carbon Measure and Centre for Contaminant Geoscience. Passion and Experience in fixing degraded land throughout the world. Main expertise: landscape systems and applied biogeochemistry 1
9/16/2019 Apologies You are all more experienced in your fields than I. Who do you work for? Thus my role is too: Challenge Convention for targeted future research Encourage systems thinking and evaluation of evidence based practice Who do you work for? Who do you work for? Does the Govt own the silos, railways, ports? Currently most institutional advice (and research, marketing and publicity) is focused on greatest annual yield and not long term Beyond the normal taxes that apply to any profitability of family farms. business: Does the govt charge or receive income from Why? handling, and export of ag produce? Does the govt receive income from inputs to farming or how the land is managed? Should it continue to be so? 2
9/16/2019 Climate Change Causes What is the greatest proven impact on climate change of the last 40 years? Systems What will have the greatest impact on supply (ie nonmarket impact) of WA (Australia and the world’s) agricultural production in the next 30 years Why? Systems Evidence based practice Closed (Kinectics of forward and reverse Evidence by Scientific Data reactions are equal – stasis) Two types of data: measurement and observation Near Closed (kinectics of reaction is slow enough that most products of reaction remain Observation is just as important as together with sufficient time for reaction of measurement correction to occur) Observation is quicker than measurement Open (Kinectics of reaction faster than mechanisms of correction) Can we wait for measurement Example ASS/AMD 3
9/16/2019 Small Water Cycle Evapotranspiration locally provides moisture for rainfall in same area or nearby Small Water Cycle Is responsible for 40-70% of rain Responsible for most of the dew, fog, mist and soft rain Magnifies impacts of the (Big) Water Cycle – Regional and global climate Theoretical depiction of Rainfall Intensity verses raindrop size. (based on Florida data) Loss of Small Water Cycle means less rain 4
9/16/2019 Borrowed directly from Kravcik et al, 2008, Water for the recovery of climate Borrowed directly from Kravcik et al, 2008, Water for the recovery of climate Little Ice Age of the 16 th and 17 th Century Little Ice Age of the 16 th and 17 th Century outcome of first Genocide – Last week outcome of first Genocide (Koch et al 2019) Great Dying – over 55 million (roughly 90% of My Key Conclusion: population) indigenous North Americans killed by disease Humans are a keystone species in Holocene and 1. Cropping and management by burning of savannah should not be removed from the ecosystem of 56 million ha ceased and was returned to forest and woodland (crop land) and huge wild fires of the 18 th C 2. Uncontrolled reforestation is not desirable Major reduction in sensible heat, increased latent heat. Less heat and more rainfall (increase small Note: Removing human management and presence in water cycle) over America. Huge cooling of conservation parks and broadscale reforestation are both continent and in parallel decrease in CO2 doubled key planks of the green movement since the 1990s the rate of cooling Note: CSIRO (Rayner et al) Different view The Conversation June 26 2016 5
9/16/2019 Pattern of civilisation collapse Following development of Agricultural Land Clearing of trees for agriculture 1. Expansion of agricultural and civilisation 2. Desertification and Collapse of Civilisations Increased variability in climate 3. Loss of resilience of land 4. Increased drought- loss of profitability, dust storms 5. Increase of big floods and erosion 6. Increase in civil unrest and wars 7. Prolonged drought and complete collapse of civilisation as fighting 8. increases and population moves away Bible -10 Plagues and parting of the Dead Sea can be viewed as impact of agricultural induced climate change. Loss of Small Water Cycle means less rain 6
9/16/2019 Theoretical depiction of Rainfall Intensity verses raindrop size. Most clear cut impact on Small Water Cycle is Prediction for loss of rain as results of partial or complete loss of Small Water Cycle (based on Florida data) WA Rabbit Proof Fence(s) Reduction in rainfall from 1940s to 1990s was 20% 1. (Lyons 1996) west of the fence Reduction due to vegetation changes – bare 2. ground(Lyons 1996) and vegetation roughage (Esau and Lyons 2002; Nair et al 2011) Est. Gulf region >80% loss of effective rainfall in 2000 years WA Wheat belt >30% loss of effective rainfall in 50 years Theoretical depiction of Rainfall Intensity verses raindrop size. Prediction for loss of rain as results of partial or complete loss of Small Water Cycle Understanding Effective Rainfall Reduction (based on Florida data) In Arid zones most rain drops formed never hit the ground let alone infiltrate or runoff. What hits the ground mostly runs off. Why? 1. Less Rain Forming – Small Water Cycle 2. Rain fall loss by evaporation before infiltration Falling (air) – evaporative loss Est. Gulf region >80% loss of Close to ground – reflected heat and released heat – effective rainfall in 2000 years evaporative loss Hot ground – evap at ground surface Need bloody big drops to overcome these factors. Big drops cause 3. Less infiltration – Factors that promote runoff WA Wheat belt >30% loss of effective rainfall in 50 years Raindrop splash - enamouring and erosion Less porosity and enamoured surface reduces air release forming hot air pulse which holds water up), Aquaphobicity (less OM) 7
9/16/2019 Restore Small Water Cycle in WA Need an Agricultural Practice that: 1. Increased Rain formed - Reduces sensible heat (plants, mulches, E/T) - Increases landscape roughage (vegetation corridors) 2. Increased Rain onto the land Key features of Restorative/Regenerative - Reduce sensible heat Agriculture - Increase soil aggregation 3. Increase Infiltration - Stop rain drop splash enamouring (Increase mulches and vegetative covers) - Allow air to escape (increase aggregation, prevent enamouring- OM) - Increase aggregation (soil organic matter), - Increase surface roughage (plant litter), While remaining profitable !!! Systemic Problems of Commercial Agriculture Myths Desertification Frog in hot water Reduction of Biodiversity Monoculture – weeds, disease, pests, chemical residues and eutrophication 8
9/16/2019 Myths Myths Frog in hot water Frog in hot water – Not true It takes 10 000 years to grow an inch of topsoil It takes 10 000 years to grow an inch of topsoil - Weathering of parent material will take that long if you growing from the bottom up - Less than 5 years if growing topsoil from the top down 9
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