Presentation: Elderly & Non-Elderly Disabled Housing Demand September 2014
Disabled applicants have gradually reduced as a percentage on waiting lists for public housing Public housing waitlist for elderly Elderly growing as proportion of total increasing public housing waitlist Elderly and disabled households on waitlist Elderly and disabled households on public 7,884 (as a % of combined total) housing waitlist 2000-2014 7,281 7,281 100% 13%13% 90% 33% 30%27%26%26%26%26%27% 32%34%28% 80% 48%46% 5,579 70% 4,913 4,661 4,558 60% 50% 14.5% decrease in 87%87% 3,087 40% 2,944 disabled share of 67%70%73%74%74%74%74%73% 68%66%72% 2,609 2,609 elderly/disabled 30% 52%54% since 2000 1,976 1,995 1,814 20% 1,280 1,577 1,520 1,387 1,279 1,219 1,222 864 916 10% 798 777 647 578 534 0% 177 188 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Elderly Disabled Increase of over 1,500% Elderly in elderly waitlist for Disabled public housing since 2000 Source: BHA and Section 8 Waitlist Data 1
The waiting list alone understates the problems facing elderly people in securing housing in Boston …in 2014 only 20% of elderly in need …while supply of housing for the Number of elderly people requiring housing support increasing… on the waitlist or housed *… elderly is likely to be flat Elderly households under Elderly people with below 80% of median income in 80% of median income in Boston 2000-2014 Boston by housing status 40,000 (2014) HUD 202 program no longer funded 35,000 35,280 for new capital projects, so no 4,083 30,000 increase coming in supply for elderly housing 25,000 2,944 23,722 20,000 20,601 15,000 28,253 10,000 12,753 5,000 - In public housing 2000 2004 2010 2014 On public housing waitlist Neither *Lower fulfilment rate for disabled, but with broader range of alternative supply. Source: UMASS Aging Report 2014 2
It is very likely that housing needs for the elderly will rise sharply in the next several years Drivers of Demand Analysis in this section 1 Older people more likely to come 1 from historically disadvantaged Income groups with lower incomes in future % requiring Detailed analysis by The University Housing costs support of Massachusetts shows increasing 1 gap between elder income and cost Cost of living of living Non-housing 4 2 Higher life expectancy and large costs Demand for 2 cohort size driving 2% growth per housing support annum in number of elderly Life expectancy While propensity to stay in Boston is 3 not strong, this is very likely to be 2 driven partially by inadequate Total elderly Cohort size housing options and may not population continue with larger 60-69 cohort 4 Given these factors, we estimate 3 Propensity to that demand for elderly housing will stay in Boston increase at least 2% per annum, and 90% of new elderly/disabled demand will come from elderly people 3
1 Income and cost of living 75% of elderly people in Boston do not have enough income to live comfortably, and many are disabled High proportion of singles and couples do not Older people also most likely to live with a have funds to live comfortably disability Boston residents reporting a disability by age Median income by age, Boston, Median income for 60+ (% of age group) 2007-11 ($k) singles below elder index 80 ($ required to live 70 69 independently), median 70 for couples 80+ also 60 62 below index 60 50 50 44 40 40 32 Elder index (households) 30 30 23 29 20 Elder index (singles) 20 13 18 17 10 10 34% of people 65+ in 0 Boston live with social 45-59 60-79 80+ 45-59 60-79 80+ security income only Personal income Household income Source: UMASS Aging Report 2014 Elderly population continues to have high need for housing support as it grows in absolute and relative terms 4
1 Income and cost of living Boston consolidated plan shows high number of elderly with severe housing cost burdens relative to income Renters paying >30% of Renters paying >50% of Owners paying >30% of Owners paying >50% of income income income income Total households and % elderly by Total households and % elderly by Total households and % elderly by Total households and % elderly by % of median income % of median income % of median income % of median income 34,405 16,075 10,355 25,450 7,600 1,760 5,855 4,895 5,975 5,015 3,090 3,480 100% 100% 100% 100% 7% 8% 11% 13% 18% Elderly 19% 20% Elderly 25% 37% 48% Elderly 54% Elderly 57% 93% 92% 89% 87% 82% Non-elderly 81% 80% Non-elderly 75% 63% 52% Non-elderly 46% Non-elderly 43% <30% 30-50% 50-80% <30% 30-50% 50-80% <30% 30-50% 50-80% <30% 30-50% 50-80% Income, Income, Income, Income, Elderly owners with low % of median % of median % of median % of median incomes facing serious difficulties funding homes Source: City of Boston Consolidated Plan 2013-18 Elderly people highly overrepresented in most disadvantaged low income-high cost groups 5
1 Income and cost of living The near-elderly are particularly likely to be in emergency housing, meaning more elderly with urgent needs in future 51-61 year olds are overrepresented among May represent potential growth in urgent residents of emergency accommodation needs for elderly over next several years Large cohort of people in some form of emergency or Total population and %s by age group, 2012* transitional housing moving into elderly age group over 62+ group also slightly next several years 10,057 2,605 744,426 overrepresented 100% 5% 6% 6% 62+ Represents both a present problem and a 10% demonstration of the difficulties likely to be faced by this 51-61 22% cohort 28% May be leading indicator of demographic and supply problem for next cohort of elderly 85% Below 51 72% 66% Emergency Transitional Total shelter housing population (Suffolk County) Source: American Community Survey; Sheltered Homeless Persons in Boston , Homeless Management Information System 6
2 Life expectancy and cohort size Boston’s elderly population is growing both in absolute and relative terms Elderly population increasing quickly Elderly growing as proportion of total Boston residents 60+ (thousands) (MAPC Boston residents (thousands) (MAPC projections for 2020/30) projections for 2020/2030) 140 100% 80 88 87 110 90% 126 120 126 80% 110 100 70% Elderly % to rise to 17% by 2020 60% 80 88 87 from 14% in 2010 80 50% 60 509 530 487 531 40% 539 40 30% 20% 20 10% 0 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Elderly Non-elderly Source: UMASS Aging Report 2014 7
3 Propensity to stay in Boston Current trends also indicate ‘ gray flight’ – suggesting that many Boston elderly are unable to find housing 70-79 population declined from 2004-14 Implications of previous gray flight Drop in 70-79 population most likely reflects Population growth by cohort 2004-14 some gray flight: this cohort contains some born before baby boom, but should show 30% some growth from leading edge/increasing life expectancy • May reflect inadequate housing options • Also likely to have dampened revealed Growth demand: those without options left rather 2004-2014 than remaining on waitlists 5% Even some gray flight would still see a substantial increase in size of 70-79 cohort because of large growth in 60-69 cohort to 2010 • Higher proportion of very elderly means more with severe disabilities -10% • Also means more likely to have exhausted cash reserves and require support 60-69 70-79 80+ Source: UMASS Aging Report 2014 8
4 Overall demand In contrast, the disabled population is unlikely to grow quickly based on current trends Estimated growth in Massachusetts disabled Unlikely that other demographic changes will population very low drive further change Estimated number of disabled persons 16-55 in Projected decrease in number of households in Massachusetts 2004-2024 Massachusetts in 35-49 age group – decreasing 350,000 number of disabled-headed households Annual growth rate of only 0.16% 300,000 Although disability more common among people 288,612 284,051 279,562 with non-White ethnicity, non-elderly non-White 250,000 groups growing less quickly than elderly non- 200,000 White groups 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2004 2014 2024 (at current rate of increase) Source: Northeastern University Adult Disabled Population in Massachusetts Report 2006; Valadus analysis 9
4 Overall demand Using these trends, we estimate ~90% of new demand for housing will come from elderly households from now to 2024 Higher growth among elderly likely to change balance between categories continuously into the future Effect on demand • Growth in number of Estimated number of households requiring support by category elderly households (elderly/non-elderly disabled) 2014-2024* requiring assistance to 42k+ 45,000 • Small growth in disabled 42,212 40,000 households requiring assistance to ~19k 39,289 35,000 • Overall change in balance 30,000 between elderly and non- 25,000 elderly disabled from 20,000 18,783 66%/33% to 69%/31% 15,000 18,663 • 90% of new demand to 10,000 come from elderly 5,000 households, with 7k additional households - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 needing assistance compared to 1k non- elderly disabled Disabled households Elderly households (in line with population) *Linear projection using current trends in population growth by UMASS, US Census 10
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