Planning Ahead for Elder Housing Needs Presented by Bonnie Heudorfer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Planning Ahead for Elder Housing Needs Presented by Bonnie Heudorfer Housing and Planning Consultant CITIZENS’ HOUSING AND PLANNING ASSOCIATION October 8, 2013

The nineteenth century French philosopher Auguste Comte, often called the “father of sociology,” is said to have proclaimed, "Demography is destiny." Peter Drucker, often called the father of modern management, observed that “Demographics are the future that has already happened.” BOTH ARE RIGHT. We know what’s coming.

Older Americans are living longer, and the baby boomers have begun to swell their ranks • 2001 - the first baby boomers (born 500.0 1946-1964) turned 55, the age at which 450.0 they can be accorded preferential treatment under the fair housing laws 400.0 • 2011 - they turned 65, a date once 350.0 thought of as retirement age Population in thousands • 2023 - those born in the peak year of 300.0 the baby boom will reach 65 250.0 • 2029 - those born at the tail end of that era will turn 65 200.0 • Between 2010 and 2020 , the number 150.0 of MA residents age 65+ will increase by 31%, rising from 906K to nearly 100.0 1.2M. 50.0 • By 2040 , this number will grow to almost 1.7M by 2040, an increase of 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 85%. 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 & over

What is less certain is what housing choices they will make…. This presentation looks at - • Projected changes in the MA population through 2040, focusing on 2010-2020 • Where older adults live, their housing needs and the resources available to them • The impact of their aging on the housing market and the communities where they live: will they stay or will they move

MA’s – and the nation’s – population profile is shifting …and the age -sex pyramid has become a rectangle. Source: U.S. Decennial Census, 1960-2000; Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. projection, 2020

Housing markets will need to serve three roughly equal age groups for much of the 21st century… two of which, most likely, will NOT include children 6,000.0 100% 90% 20.2% 20.1% 20.3% 21.0% 20.7% 24.5% 30.0% 31.0% 5,000.0 80% 1,675.9 1,542.0 1,186.6 70% Population in thousands 4,000.0 906.2 28.1% 860.9 33.4% 33.7% 38.6% 60% 40.8% 817.6 37.8% 33.1% 33.9% 729.1 50% 3,000.0 635.7 1,113.6 1,430.1 1,820.8 1,830.8 1,701.1 1,833.1 40% 1,170.4 2,000.0 1,213.9 30% 51.2% 46.4% 45.4% 41.2% 20% 38.9% 37.7% 37.0% 35.2% 2,027.3 1,986.3 1,733.4 1,829.5 1,903.5 1,905.8 1,000.0 1,296.6 1,576.7 10% 0% 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 and over 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 and over

MA has greater share of very old residents and baby boomers but fewer young children than US Ratio 9.0% Age MA US MA:US Born between and after 8.0% Under 5 5.6% 6.6% 0.85 2005 5 to 9 5.9% 6.7% 0.88 2001 2005 7.0% 10 to 14 6.2% 6.8% 0.91 1996 2000 15 to 19 7.1% 7.2% 0.98 1991 1995 6.0% 20 to 24 7.3% 7.1% 1.03 1986 1990 25 to 29 6.7% 6.9% 0.98 1981 1985 5.0% 30 to 34 6.2% 6.5% 0.95 1976 1980 35 to 39 6.4% 6.6% 0.97 1971 1975 4.0% 40 to 44 7.2% 6.8% 1.05 1966 1970 45 to 49 7.9% 7.4% 1.07 1961 1965 3.0% 50 to 54 7.6% 7.2% 1.05 1956 1960 55 to 59 6.6% 6.3% 1.04 1951 1955 2.0% 60 to 64 5.7% 5.4% 1.05 1946 1950 65 to 69 4.0% 4.0% 1.02 1941 1945 1.0% 70 to 74 2.9% 2.9% 1.00 1936 1940 0.0% 75 to 79 2.5% 2.3% 1.09 1931 1935 < 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 & over 80 to 84 2.1% 1.7% 1.21 1926 1930 85 & + 2.2% 1.6% 1.40 1925 and earlier US MA Source: U.S. Decennial Census, 2010

The housing needs and desires of seniors is varied and may change 2-3 times over the course of their later lives The continuum of options: • Active adult communities senior apartments independent living developments assisted living residences skilled nursing facilities Continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) offer a number of these options on one campus Survey research continues to show that most older Americans would prefer to grow old in their own homes. • Strategies to enable them to do that include in-home health care and supportive services, home sharing, accessory dwelling units and reverse mortgages.

What does it bode for the housing market? Any sizable shift from one generation to the next affects housing demand Key segments for the housing market 2,000.0 1,800.0 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 School Age (5-19) HH Formation (20-34) Trade-up (35-54) Empty Nesters (55-64) Early Seniors (65-79) Older Seniors (80+)

And between 2010 and 2020 the baby boomers will swell the ranks of Empty Nesters and Early Seniors 120.0% 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 (actual) (projected) (projected) (projected) 102.0% 100.0% Under 20 -3.4% -0.2% 3.8% 3.9% HH 77.1% 80.0% Formation (20-34) -0.5% 7.0% -2.7% 5.9% Trade-up 60.0% (35-54) -2.4% -8.5% 6.3% 4.9% Empty Nesters 40.0% (55-64) 47.3% 17.9% 25.8% -0.3% Early Seniors 20.0% (65-79) 1.5% 44.5% 25.8% -2.5% 10.3% 7.6% 3.6% Older Seniors 2.0% (80+) 0.0% 14.5% 1.3% 43.0% 39.4% Under 20 HH Trade-up Empty Early Older Formation (35-54) Nesters Seniors Seniors (20-34) (55-64) (65-79) (80+) Projected change 2010-2040 Source: 2000, 2010 U.S. Decennial Census; 2020-2040 Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.

Mirroring a national trend, MA suburbs are graying faster than its urban centers Population change in Boomer and Senior households between 2000 and 2010 39.3% 40.0% 35.0% 29.2% 30.0% 26.0% 24.1% 25.0% 20.0% 18.2% 15.0% 11.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.9% 0.0% Developing Suburbs Inner Core Maturing Suburbs Regional Urban Centers 45-64 65+ -3.0% -5.0% Source: 2000, 2010 Census; includes 164 eastern MA communities; MAPC community typology

Much of MA’s housing was built to accommodate families during their child-rearing years 35% 33% • Increasingly the aging 30% 26% population lives in low- 25% 24% 23% density, auto-dependent 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% suburbs 17% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% • And many wish to remain 10% there, in their existing home 5% or community 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Age 0-17 Age 65 and over

Will they move? Maybe, but - • Older households move at a much lower rate than younger ones. • Short-distance moves are more common than long distance moves. • Unless motivated by a health or financial crisis, older adults often choose to stay put. • Great Recession has taken a toll on financial resources, confidence. • Discretionary moves are unlikely to match the media hype. A gradual generational turnover, occurring at end of life or end of ability to live independently, is inevitable .

‘Aging in Place’ housing issues Challenges may relate to : Housing stock, community characteristics , affordability • One set of strategies can enable seniors to continue to live in their own homes as they age by ensuring that the existing housing stock is safe, affordable, accessible, and connected to essential services. • A complementary set of strategies is required to expand the range of housing options (subsidized, supportive, market-rate) needed to meet future demand in locations that promote independence. • AARP defines a “livable community” as one with “affordable and appropriate housing, supportive community features and services, and adequate mobility options.”

Prevalence of disability increases dramatically with age Disability Type All ages 5-15 16-20 21-64 65-74 75 and over Any Disability 740,400 49,800 26,300 362,300 104,900 194,200 Visual 117,300 5,300 3,200 53,300 14,800 38,700 Hearing 202,700 6,700 2,800 65,900 37,800 87,600 Ambulatory 364,900 5,700 3,700 178,900 60,400 116,300 Cognitive 300,600 38,500 19,600 171,100 20,700 50,700 Self-Care 151,800 11,100 4,000 67,900 17,200 51,500 Independent Living 284,500 NA 9,700 138,700 32,300 100,800 Disability Type All ages 5-15 16-20 21-64 65-74 75 and over Any Disability 11.4% 5.8% 5.3% 9.3% 22.4% 47.0% Visual 1.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 3.2% 9.4% Hearing 3.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.7% 8.1% 21.2% Ambulatory 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 4.6% 12.9% 28.2% Cognitive 4.9% 4.5% 4.0% 4.4% 4.4% 12.3% Self-Care 2.5% 1.3% 0.8% 1.7% 3.7% 12.5% Independent Living 5.3% NA 2.0% 3.5% 6.9% 24.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Massachusetts

Stuck without options: comparison of current and future senior transit access, Boston metro Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology