EUROPEAN POULTRY CLUB CONFERENCE Buenos Aires, October 18th 2011 POUTRY AND EGG PRODUCTION IN SOUTH AMERICA – CONSUMER BEHAVIOR, TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Ariel Antonio Mendes Production and Techinical Scientific Director of UBABEF
WORLD MEAT PRODUCTION (Million tons) 2008 2009 2010 Beef 58,522 57,431 56,763 Pork 98,042 100,473 101,507 Chicken 71,476 71,961 75,216 228,040 229,865 233,486 TOTAL Source: UBABEF and USDA
MAIN CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCERS (Million tons) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 USA 15.870 15.930 16.226 16.561 15.935 16.348 China 10.200 10.350 11.291 11.840 12.100 12.550 Brazil 8.950 9.335 10.305 10.940 10.980 12.230 EU-27 8.169 7.740 8.320 8.594 8.756 8.920 México 2.498 2.592 2.683 2.853 2.781 2.809 Índia 1.900 2.000 2.240 2.490 2.550 2.650 Russia 900 1.180 1.350 1.550 1.790 2.000 Argentina 1.030 1.200 1.320 1.430 1.500 1.650 Iran 1.237 1.327 1.423 1.450 1.525 1.600 South Africa 1.015 1.113 1.159 1.240 1.250 1.290 Japan 1.166 1.258 1.250 1.255 1.282 1.280 Others 9.916 10.451 10.884 11.273 11.512 11.889 TOTAL 62.851 64.476 68.451 71.476 71.961 75.216 Source: UBABEF and USDA
BRAZIL, CHINA AND USA PRODUCE 54% OF THE WORLD PRODUCTION USA (15.980 mil tons) 54% of world = production CHINA (12.100 mil tons) BRAZIL (10.960 mil tons)
CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA (Million Tons)
CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION IN LATIN AMERICA (1000 Tons) Chicken Meat Production (1000 tons) Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Argentina 870 870 640 750 910 1.030 1.200 1.320 1.430 1.500 1.600 Brazil 5.977 6.736 7.517 7.843 8.494 8.950 9.335 10.305 10.940 10.980 12.230 Chile 378 408 379 389 446 457 517 480 503 528 536 Colombia 606 606 649 678 709 763 850 925 1.011 1.025 1.040 México 1.936 2.067 2.157 2.290 2.389 2.498 2.592 2.683 2.853 2.781 2.809 Venezuela 693 877 893 676 686 739 707 740 695 680 650 Source: USDA and UBABEF
CHICKEN MEAT CONSUMPTION IN LATIN AMERICA (kg/percapta/year) Sources: FAO,CIA
MAJOR CHICKEN MEAT EXPORTERS (Million tons) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Brazil 2.845 2.717 3.286 3.645 3.634 3.819 USA 2.360 2.361 2.678 3.157 3.093 2.935 EU-27 696 689 635 742 783 840 Thailand 240 261 296 383 379 410 China 332 322 358 285 291 380 Argentina 92 94 125 164 178 250 Canada 102 110 139 152 147 150 Chile 60 64 39 63 87 70 Kuwait 97 38 60 70 70 70 Australia 18 16 25 27 30 30 Arab Emirates 20 10 30 30 30 30 Others 73 85 74 98 133 151 TOTAL 6.935 6.767 7.745 8.816 8.855 9.135 Source: UBABEF and USDA
BRAZIL AND USA REPRESENT 77% OF THE WORLD EXPORTS BRAZIL (3.634 mil tons) 77% of the world = USA (2.997 mil tons) exports Sources: UBABEF and USDA
MAJOR LATIN AMERICA CHICKEN EXPORTERS Broiler meat exportation (1 000 ton) País 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Argentina 11 13 23 39 66 92 94 125 164 178 214 Brasil 916 1.266 1.625 1.961 2.470 2.846 2.718 3.287 3.646 3.635 3.820 Chile 14 22 14 22 46 60 64 39 63 87 79 Colombia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 5 Mexico 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 5 9 14 Venezuela 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Fonte: USDA e UBABEF
EXPORTING COUNTRIES � Brazil and USA have a consolidated global market thanks to quality and production cost; � Argentina and Chile stand out as new players, but production is still small; � European countries lost competitiveness owing to high production costs and lack of grain, but the increases in production costs in Brazil are creating opportunities to France and Turkey as exporting countries; � Asian countries like Thailand, have serious sanitary problems.
EXPORTING COUNTRIES � Little demand for processed products with high added value; � Sanitary and high quality requirements, that require farm investments, slaughter plants, quality programs and certifications; � Some countries are also going beyond the requirements; • Iraq – SGS Certification and Bureau Veritas; • Lebanon; • South Africa - Salmonella and residue;
MAJOR CHICKEN MEAT IMPORTERS (Million tons) 2008 2009 2010 Variation 2009/10 Japan 737 645 745 15,50% EU-27 712 719 680 -5,42% Saudi Arabia 510 604 630 4,30% Mexico 433 492 525 6,71% Russia 1.159 913 475 -47,97% Iraq 211 368 330 -10,33% China 399 401 326 -18,70% United Arab Emirates 289 297 305 2,69% Hong Kong 236 253 280 10,67% Venezuela 352 181 275 51,93% South Africa 191 206 225 9,22% Others 2.560 2.545 2.806 10,26% TOTAL 7.789 7.624 7.602 -0,29% Source: USDA
CHICKEN MEAT IMPORTS IN LATIN AMERICA Chicken Meat Imports (1000 tons) Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Argentina 42 24 1 8 1 3 3 5 4 5 9 Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chile 0 0 0 2 9 13 19 42 26 38 67 Colombia 11 10 3 0 1 2 9 26 30 29 36 México 219 235 254 329 316 364 419 380 433 492 549 Venezuela 2 3 2 16 69 104 124 163 352 181 237 Source: USDA and UBABEF
IMPORTING COUNTRIES � China, Europe, Japan, Russia, Middle East, Venezuela and Mexico are traditional importers, owing to their production deficit; � Eastern Europe, Africa and some Asian countries are increasing imports thanks to economic growth and increase in economic policies; � Specific situations of China (trade dispute with the United States) and Russia (the use of chlorine and suspended imports from Brazil) have changed the market from those countries, shifting, in part, the USA and opening up possibilities for other suppliers, like Argentina and Chile.
IMPORTED PRODUCTS IN DIFFERENT MARKETS � European Union - high food safety and health demand, license requirements, quotas, deboned breast; � South Africa - same EU requirements, dumping against Brazil, leg quarter, chicken neck, MDM; � Angola, Congo, Liberia, Benin - low health requirements whole chicken, chicken neck; � Venezuela - whole chicken; � Chile - whole chicken; � Mexico and Central America - leg quarter and MDM provided by the USA;
IMPORTED PRODUCTS IN DIFFERENT MARKETS � China - feet, paws, wings, joint and middle joint wings, gizzards, do not buy whole chicken and chicken breasts; � Japan, Korea and Singapore - more sophisticated markets, import labor intensive products. � Malaysia - wings and demands for Halal slaughter; � Vietnam – wings, large population (85 million); � Russia - leg quarters, wings, gizzards, hearts and MDM; � Middle East – griller (Halal slaughter);
SUMMARY 1… � Little demand for processed products with high added value; � Sanitary and high quality requirements, that require farm investments, slaughter plants, quality programs; � New private regulation imposed by costumers and fast food chains that require high investments to suit certification programs;
10 MOST IMPORTANT EGG PRODUCERS: 70% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION Source: FAO. IEC, IBGE
LATIN AMERICA = 11% OF THE WORLD EGG PRODUCTION Source: FAO. IEC, IBGE
LATIN AMERICA EGG PRODUCTION Source: FAO. IEC, IBGE
LATIN AMERICA EGG PRODUCTION (1000 Tons)
EGG PRODUCTION GROWTH – 2000 to 2009
LATIN AMERICA PER CAPITA EGG CONSUMPTION (eggs/year) Source: FAO. IEC, IBGE
BRAZILIAN EGG PRODUCTION (Billion eggs) 28.851.931.851 eggs (28.8 billion) 80.144.255 boxes (360 eggs) 149 eggs/percapita Source: UBABEF
BRAZILIAN EGG EXPORTS BY PRODUCT (2010) 2009 2010 In shell In shell 91% 92% Processed 9% Processed 8% Source: UBABEF
BRAZILIAN EGG EXPORT IN SHELL (2010) Oman Others Qatar 2% Dem. Rep. 2% 1% Congo 3% United Arab Emirates 41% Angola 51% Source: UBABEF
BRAZILIAN EGG EXPORT PROCESSED (2010) Others Uruguay Saudi Arabia 4% 4% 7% Cuba 9% United Arab Japan Emirates 53% 11% Venezuela 12% Source: UBABEF
SUMMARY 2... � China represents more than 30% of the world production; � 10 countries represent 70% of the world production; � Latin America represents 11% of the world production; � Mexico e Brazil represent more than 60% of the Latin America production; � Mexico has the higher consumption in the world (354 eggs); � Argentina, Colombia, Panama and Paraguay have increased their production more than 80 % on the past 10 years;
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES � Some countries are large grain producers - Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay; � Others import grain but have a good production structure - Colombia, Peru and some countries in Central America; � Large internal market - Brazil and Mexico; � Abundant and qualified hand-labor; � Modern industry and dynamic entrepreneurs; � Animal health - Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Panamá; � Low production costs (still, but until when?);
LATIN AMERICA COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Arable land (availability of millions of hectares) - 31 machines harvesting and 12 planting at same time
LATIN AMERICA COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES – ARABLE LAND AVAILABILITY 450.000 400.000 350.000 Pasture and unused 300.000 land 250.000 Agriculture 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Source: FAO
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