Pot otentia ial i l impacts of of th the i e incr creased - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pot otentia ial i l impacts of of th the i e incr creased deploymen ent of advanced ced d driver er a assistance ce systems on on th the n numbers of of kille led or or seriou ously i injured ed (KSI) I) c car occu occupants, ped edestria ians a and cy cyclis clists ts i in N Nor orway Alena Høye Truls Vaa Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll Institute of Transport Economics Oslo, Norway

KSI in Norway (2010-2014) Other, no car 17.3 % Passenger car: Head on; 23.9 % Cyclist, no car 4.3 % ISA Pedestrian, no car 4.1 % Alcolock LDW Other in car Drug- Passenger car: crash; 8.7 % Off road; 20.0 % lock ACC Vulnerable Cyclist in car crash +FCW 4.4 % road user +AEB Pedestrian in car crash warning with Passenger car: 8.4 % AEB Rear-end 2.5 % Passenger car: Other 6.3 %

ACC with forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic emergency brake (AEB)  Definition ‒ ACC regulates speed and headway (can be turned off) ‒ FCW warns, AEB brakes – Wide range of different systems !!! !!! ‒ “High speed”  Effect on KSI ‒ Affects rear-end collisions and most other collisions with motor vehicles ‒ Spare part calls, insurance claims, field/simulator studies, crash statistics ‒ Highly inconsistent findings ‒ Assumed -5.3 % KSI in passenger cars

Vulnerable road user warning with AEB  Definition !!! !!! ‒ Basic: Detects pedestrians in front of the car, AEB brakes ‒ Medium: … + cyclists ‒ Advanced: … + blind spot warning  Effect on KSI ‒ Field/simulator studies, crash statistics: Pedestrian/cyclist – car collisions ‒ Basic: -7 % KSI pedestrians in pedestrian-car crashes ‒ Medium: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -7 % KSI cyclists…. ‒ Advanced: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -8 % KSI cyclists….

Lane departure warning (LDW) / Autonomous lane keeping  Definition !!! !!! ‒ LDW: Warns the driver ‒ Autonomous lane keeping: Keeps the lane (in specific situations)  Effect on KSI ‒ Crash studies, field/simulator studies, crash statistics ‒ LDW: -6.4 % KSI in passenger cars ‒ Autonomous lane keeping: -15.8 % KSI in passenger cars

Intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) Too fast !  Definition ‒ Informative: Warns the driver ‒ Overridable: Counterforce on the accelerator pedal ‒ Mandatory: Non-overridable  Effect on KSI ‒ ISA affects speed – Speed affects KSI ‒ Informative: -7.5 % ; Overridable: -9.3 % ; Mandatory: -16.2 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Involuntary drivers speed more + are less inclined to comply

Alcohol ignition interlock / drug ignition interlock  Definition ‒ Alcolock: Prevents drunk driver from starting the engine ‒ Drug ignition interlock: … driver under the influence of drugs ….  Effect on KSI ‒ Alcohol/drugs – crash risk ‒ Alcolock: -11.1 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Drug ign. interlock: -14.6 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Max effect for most involuntary drivers ‒ More drunk/drug driving in older cars

Uptake of driver assistance systems: Delphi survey  First round ‒ N = 51 ‒ 60% Norway; 30% Sweden ‒ 65% research; 24% administration; 6% car manufacturers ‒ Proportions of new cars with measure X? Mandatory?  Second round with feedback ‒ …

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - voluntary 80 % 80 % 78 % ACC with FCW+AEB 70 % 70 % LDW 66 % ISA-informative 60 % 54 % Ped.-AEB 50 % 47 % Auto. lane keeping 40 % Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB 30 % Alcolock 30 % Drug ign. interlock 22 % 20 % ISA-mandatory 16 % 10 % 0 % 2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030

Delphi-estimated years in which systems become mandatory 100 % 2035 2033 2031 2030 2029 2029 2029 2028 2027 2027 2033 80 % 2031 2029 60 % 2027 Mandatory in X years 2025 40 % 2023 Mandatory? Yes 2021 20 % 2019 2017 0 % 2015

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - by law 100 % 100 % ACC with FCW+AEB 90 % LDW 80 % ISA-informative 70 % Ped.-AEB 60 % Auto. lane keeping 50 % Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB 40 % Alcolock 30 % Drug ign. interlock 22 % ISA-mandatory 20 % 16 % 10 % 0 % 2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - light -1.7 % -1.9 % ACC with FCW+AEB -3.6 % -3.7 % 2030: Delphi -0.3 % -0.4 % Ped. AEB - voluntary -0.7 % -0.7 % -2.0 % 2030: Delphi -2.4 % LDW -4.4 % - by law -4.5 % -1.5 % -1.5 % ISA-info. 2030: 100% of -6.1 % -7.5 % new cars from 2016 -1.2 % -1.9 % Alcolock -10.5 % All -11.1 % -4.6 % -5.6 % All "light" -19.7 % -21.5 % -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - advanced -1.7 % -1.9 % ACC with FCW+AEB -3.6 % -3.7 % 2030: Delphi -0.3 % -0.5 % Ped./cyc. AEB -1.1 % - voluntary -1.2 % -3.6 % -4.3 % 2030: Delphi LDW+Aut.LK -10.3 % -15.3 % - by law -1.6 % -1.6 % ISA-info./mand. -13.7 % 2030: 100% of -16.2 % new cars -1.4 % from 2016 -2.2 % Alco-/Druglock -13.8 % -25.7 % All -8.5 % -10.0 % All "advanced" -36.8 % -48.9 % -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Crap!