POSSIBLE CLIMATE STRATEGIES FOR POSSIBLE CLIMATE STRATEGIES FOR A - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

POSSIBLE CLIMATE STRATEGIES FOR POSSIBLE CLIMATE STRATEGIES FOR A ROMNEY PRESIDENCY A ROMNEY PRESIDENCY Presentation for November 2012 Presentation for November 2012 USAEE Conference in Austin, Texas USAEE Conference in Austin, Texas James L. Plummer, MBA, Ph.D. James L. Plummer, MBA, Ph.D. President, QED Group President, QED Group IAEE Founder IAEE Founder 1

THE 2012 ROMNEY CLIMATE POLICY POSITION THE 2012 ROMNEY CLIMATE POLICY POSITION � It is worded differently in different places: It is worded differently in different places: “ “I don I don’ ’t think t think � a convincing enough case has yet been made to justify the a convincing enough case has yet been made to justify the costs of either a cap and trade system or a carbon costs of either a cap and trade system or a carbon emissions tax. I am willing to change my mind if there is emissions tax. I am willing to change my mind if there is new evidence.” ” new evidence. � A pretty nuanced position. Particularly the word A pretty nuanced position. Particularly the word “ “yet. yet.” ” � � I will examine two kinds of decisions: I will examine two kinds of decisions: � � Things he can do by executive order to increase his information Things he can do by executive order to increase his information � base and thus increase his future options base and thus increase his future options � The events that may cause him to The events that may cause him to “ “pivot pivot” ” to having a bipartisan to having a bipartisan � Presidential Commission recommend legislative options Presidential Commission recommend legislative options 2

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EARLY ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES THAT CAN BE EARLY ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES THAT CAN BE IMPLEMENTED BY EXECUTIVE ORDERS IMPLEMENTED BY EXECUTIVE ORDERS � Transfer the function of estimating the health effects of global Transfer the function of estimating the health effects of global warming warming � pollutants from EPA to the Dept. of Health & Human Services pollutants from EPA to the Dept. of Health & Human Services � Create an Office of Pollution Impact and Damage Assessment withi Create an Office of Pollution Impact and Damage Assessment within the n the � Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dept. of Commerce and have them em Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dept. of Commerce and have th initiate damage and adaptation studies for all global warming pollutants llutants initiate damage and adaptation studies for all global warming po � Policy decisions would still remain with EPA Policy decisions would still remain with EPA � � Changes in U.S. foreign policy positions: Changes in U.S. foreign policy positions: � � Request that AR5 from the IPCC include study of Black Carbon Request that AR5 from the IPCC include study of Black Carbon � � The Green Global Fund should focus on adaptation options The Green Global Fund should focus on adaptation options � � Initiate discussions with the World Bank and regional developmen Initiate discussions with the World Bank and regional development t � banks to integrate climate damage insurance options into banks to integrate climate damage insurance options into development finance decisions development finance decisions 4

REQUEST A BROADER CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REQUEST A BROADER CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT BY THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE BY THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE � Such a study would provide competition and/or validation for Such a study would provide competition and/or validation for � the conclusions coming out of the IPCC AR5 review. the conclusions coming out of the IPCC AR5 review. � Such a study might provide a basis for modifying EPA Such a study might provide a basis for modifying EPA’ ’s previous s previous � “endangerment finding endangerment finding” ” for carbon dioxide for carbon dioxide “ � It could fund original research that could increase our It could fund original research that could increase our � information base on climate change pollutants other than carbon information base on climate change pollutants other than carbon dioxide dioxide � All the resources of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric All the resources of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric � Administration could be made available to the study Administration could be made available to the study � The IPCC is essentially a The IPCC is essentially a “ “consensus striving consensus striving” ” operation, which operation, which � has to give consideration to scientists worldwide, regardless of has to give consideration to scientists worldwide, regardless of their professional standing their professional standing � Some competition to the IPCC would be a good thing Some competition to the IPCC would be a good thing � 5

THE WORLDWIDE IMPORTANCE OF BLACK CARBON (SOOT) THE WORLDWIDE IMPORTANCE OF BLACK CARBON (SOOT) Black carbon causes 3 types of damage: Black carbon causes 3 types of damage: � � As much as 25% of the radiative forcing of all pollutants (Ramanathan and Carmichael) athan and Carmichael) As much as 25% of the radiative forcing of all pollutants (Raman � � When it deposes on snow or ice, it raises temperature and accelerates melting (climate damage) rates melting (climate damage) When it deposes on snow or ice, it raises temperature and accele � � When ingested, causes nasty health effects When ingested, causes nasty health effects � � The atmospheric residence time of black carbon is between a few days as a few weeks. days as a few weeks. The atmospheric residence time of black carbon is between a few � � The geographic transport is highly variable. A few miles under quiet weather, to quiet weather, to The geographic transport is highly variable. A few miles under several thousand miles if it is driven by winds in the upper atmosphere. mosphere. several thousand miles if it is driven by winds in the upper at The U.S. only accounts for 5.1% of world black carbon emissions, and U.S. mobile and U.S. mobile The U.S. only accounts for 5.1% of world black carbon emissions, � � sources account for 52.8% of U.S. black carbon emissions. EPA’ ’s reaction has been s reaction has been sources account for 52.8% of U.S. black carbon emissions. EPA to regard U.S. black carbon reduction as a byproduct of other re to regard U.S. black carbon reduction as a byproduct of other regulation of motor gulation of motor vehicle fuel economy . vehicle fuel economy . Other nations ( including China and India) give a much higher p Other nations ( including China and India) give a much higher priority to black riority to black � � carbon abatement (from diesel engines, cookstoves and biomass burning) . Shrinkage rning) . Shrinkage carbon abatement (from diesel engines, cookstoves and biomass bu of the Himalayan glaciers and the rivers they feed may be partly due to black carbon. due to black carbon. of the Himalayan glaciers and the rivers they feed may be partly Black carbon is an aerosol rather than a GHG, so these nations are given no credit re given no credit Black carbon is an aerosol rather than a GHG, so these nations a � � under Kyoto for any efforts to reduce black carbon. under Kyoto for any efforts to reduce black carbon. The low priority that the U.S. assigns to black carbon is harmfu The low priority that the U.S. assigns to black carbon is harmful in achieving more l in achieving more � � international cooperation on global warming policy. international cooperation on global warming policy. 6

TREASURY DEPARTMENT STUDY OF INTEGRATING A TREASURY DEPARTMENT STUDY OF INTEGRATING A CORPORATE INCOME TAX REFORM WITH A CARBON TAX CORPORATE INCOME TAX REFORM WITH A CARBON TAX There is bipartisan support for the notion that the U.S. Corporation Income tion Income There is bipartisan support for the notion that the U.S. Corpora � � Tax rate of 35% is too high and damages the U.S. competitive position in ition in Tax rate of 35% is too high and damages the U.S. competitive pos world trade. world trade. The general Romney position in the 2012 campaign is to reduce the marginal The general Romney position in the 2012 campaign is to reduce th e marginal � � rates of all taxes by limiting exemptions and deductions. rates of all taxes by limiting exemptions and deductions. The FY 2012 revenue from the Corporation Income Tax is about $329B 9B The FY 2012 revenue from the Corporation Income Tax is about $32 � � The revenue that would be raised from a $30 per metric ton carbon tax is n tax is The revenue that would be raised from a $30 per metric ton carbo � � about $116B about $116B So, maybe the two things could be combined So, maybe the two things could be combined � � Timing problem: The CIT reduction will come up early in a Romney Timing problem: The CIT reduction will come up early in a Romne y � � administration, whereas consideration of a carbon tax, if it happens at all administration, whereas consideration of a carbon tax, if it hap pens at all would not be until 2015 or 2016 would not be until 2015 or 2016 7