Pocketbook Sub-indice which tracks personal finances and job - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pocketbook Sub-indice which tracks personal finances and job security in Canada hits a 12 month low submitted by Nanos, February 1, 2019 (Project 2013-284) Confidential 1

Summary Economic sentiment continues to be muted ago. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, compared to a year ago. The Bloomberg Nanos based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 50.12 this week Canadian Confidence Index registered a score below average in the latest tracking. Also of note (compared to 50.48 four weeks ago). the Pocketbook Sub-indice which tracks the job security and personal finances of Canada hit a 12 The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been month low. 56.89 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of averaged 54.62 this year. financial health and economic expectations, registered at 54.15 compared with 55.51 four “Of note, Canadians living in the province of weeks ago. The twelve month high stands at Ontario hit a 12 month low in consumer 58.98. confidence,” stated Nik Nanos Chief Data Scientist for Nanos Research. “This speaks to the fragility of The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based the economic mood.” on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.18 this week compared to 60.54 four weeks 2

ONE YEAR TREND LINE Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index Weekly Completed February 1, 2019) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2/2/2018 3/2/2018 4/2/2018 5/2/2018 6/2/2018 7/2/2018 8/2/2018 9/2/2018 10/2/2018 11/2/2018 12/2/2018 1/2/2019 The BNCCI is a diffusion index comprised of the views of 1,000 Canadians. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above or below 50 suggest net positive or net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. The data is based on perceptions related to personal 3 finances, job security, economic strength, and real estate value.

LONGER TERM TREND LINE Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index Weekly Completed February 1, 2019) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 The BNCCI is a diffusion index comprised of the views of 1,000 Canadians. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above or below 50 suggest net positive or net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. The data is based on perceptions related to personal 4 finances, job security, economic strength, and real estate value.

ONE YEAR TREND Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Pocketbook and Expectations Indices (Weekly Completed February 1, 2019) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Pocketbook Index Expectations Index 35 30 The BNCCI Pocketbook and Expectations Sub-Indices are comprised of the views of 1,000 Canadians. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above or below 50 suggest net positive or net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. The data for the Pocketbook Index is based on perceptions related to personal finances and job security, and the data for the 5 Expectations Index is based on perceptions related to economic strength and real estate value.

LONGER TERM TREND Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Pocketbook and Expectations Indices (Weekly Completed February 1, 2019) 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Pocketbook Index Expectations Index 35 30 The BNCCI Pocketbook and Expectations Sub-Indices are comprised of the views of 1,000 Canadians. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above or below 50 suggest net positive or net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. The data for the Pocketbook Index is based on perceptions related to personal finances and job security, and the data for the 6 Expectations Index is based on perceptions related to economic strength and real estate value.

BNCCI This week 54.15 Last week 54.43 Bloomberg Nanos 2019 high 55.51 Jan 4 Canadian Consumer 2019 low 54.15 Feb 1 2019 average 54.62 Confidence Index 2008 average 49.21 Worst full year Data Summary for 2010 average 59.13 Best full year Dec 31, 2008 43.28 Record low February 1, 2019 Dec 31, 2009 62.92 Record high Overall index average 56.89 Individual Measures: Average Average Positive ratings This week Last week 4 weeks ago 2019 2008-2019 Personal finances 18.88 19.63 19.19 19.19 18.46 16.23 Canadian economy 15.67 16.06 15.84 21.23 Job security 64.28 66.49 70.05 67.07 67.08 Real estate 36.98 38.46 39.70 38.37 37.91 Full Ratings Better off Worse off No change Don't know Personal finances 18.88 28.50 51.03 1.60 Stronger Weaker No change Don't know Canadian Economy 16.23 36.46 39.96 7.34 Somewhat Somewhat Secure secure not secure Not secure Don't know Job security 46.02 18.26 5.24 7.74 22.74 Increase Stay the same Decrease Don't know Real estate 36.98 42.89 16.25 3.87 7

4 Weeks 3 Months 1 Year 12 Month 12 Month 12 Month This Week Last Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Average Canada Bloomberg Nanos 54.15 54.43 55.51 57.64 58.98 Economic Mood 58.98 53.62 56.26 Canadian Consumer 58.18 59.10 60.54 60.64 59.52 Pocketbook Index 61.55 58.18 60.16 50.12 49.76 50.48 54.65 58.45 Expectations Index 58.45 47.81 52.37 Confidence Index Data Summary for Economic Mood by Demographic February 1, 2019 Region 54.14 54.74 54.02 57.36 58.61 Atlantic 58.78 50.93 54.42 60.76 61.00 62.90 61.47 60.59 Quebec 64.18 58.06 60.96 54.76 55.03 56.57 58.95 57.12 Ontario 59.96 54.76 56.89 45.97 46.33 49.16 50.16 56.53 Prairies 56.53 41.54 49.54 52.95 52.96 50.70 58.85 63.54 British Columbia 65.62 48.43 57.43 58.86 59.03 62.42 64.13 Age 18 to 29 65.68 65.68 55.85 61.48 56.64 57.93 57.65 63.24 30 to 39 59.09 63.80 55.34 59.02 56.89 55.72 56.12 55.88 40 to 49 57.15 58.60 51.44 55.70 50.45 50.86 52.92 53.37 50 to 59 56.26 57.02 49.98 53.68 49.85 50.50 50.51 53.69 60 plus 57.19 57.19 48.63 53.02 Income $0 to $14,999 52.45 51.47 49.81 55.38 51.83 58.95 47.17 52.21 $15,000 to $29,999 50.45 50.42 53.83 54.14 48.12 58.76 48.12 54.23 $30,000 to $44,999 52.57 54.75 57.90 55.22 56.72 59.62 48.01 55.01 $45,000 to $59,999 54.48 54.07 54.24 60.80 61.72 61.72 51.05 56.49 $60,000 to $74,999 55.18 55.52 56.22 57.02 63.08 66.47 52.03 57.47 $75,000 or more 54.83 55.28 56.46 58.86 61.35 61.35 54.64 57.95 Home Own 53.30 53.55 53.92 56.45 58.45 58.45 51.48 55.06 Rent 54.92 55.58 58.65 59.30 60.30 61.90 54.92 58.80 8

About the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) is a weekly measurement of the economic mood of Canadians on the strength of the economy, job security, real estate in their neighbourhood, and their personal financial situation. It is a composite of those variables and has two sub indices: a Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Sub-index on forward views; and, Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index on their personal economic situation. The longitudinal data on the index begins in 2008 and is a significant data source for decision- makers. For more information, visit www.bloomberg.com/news/canada or www.nanosresearch.com For interviews contact: Nik Nanos FMRIA Chairman, Nanos Research Group Ottawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237 Washington DC (202) 697-9924 nnanos@nanosresearch.com 9

Methodology 10

Methodology The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians. A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending February 1, 2019. The following questions are used for the index calculations: - Thinking of your personal finances, are you better off, worse off, or has there been no change over the past year? (Overall Confidence Index and Pocketbook Sub-Index) - Would you describe your job, at this time, as secure, somewhat secure, somewhat not secure, or not at all secure? (Overall Confidence Index and Pocketbook Sub-Index) - In the next six months, do you think the Canadian economy will become stronger, weaker, or will there be no change? (Overall Confidence Index and Expectations Sub- Index) - In the next six months, do you believe that the value of real estate in your neighbourhood will increase, stay the same or decrease? (Overall Confidence Index and Expectations Sub-Index) 11