PM 1 0 Objective - w hat it m eans for Local Authorities Beth - PDF document

PM 1 0 Objective - w hat it m eans for Local Authorities Beth Conlan, John R Stedm an Current National Objectives The current national objective is Annual average 4 0 µg m - 3 by 2 0 0 4 2 4 hour objective of 5 0 µg m - 3 , not to be exceeded m ore than 3 5 tim es, by 2 0 0 4 1

DEFRA & Devolved Adm inistrations: AQS consultation An analysis of the costs and benefits of a m ore stringent AQS objective • The contributions to current ambient PM 10 concentrations from different sources • How these are likely to change in the future as a result of current policies (baseline) • The costs and benefits resulting from an illustrative package of possible additional policy measures Proposed Objectives To be achieved by the end of 2 0 1 0 : • UK except London and Scotland: 24-hour mean of 50 µ gm -3 not to be exceeded more than 7 times per year and an annual mean of 20 µ gm -3 • for London: 24-hour mean of 50 µ gm -3 not to be exceeded m ore than 10-14 times per year and an annual mean of 23-25 µ gm -3 • for Scotland, a 24-hour mean of 50 µ gm -3 not to be exceeded more than 7 times per year and an annual mean of 18 µ gm -3 2

Today’s Presentation: • Predicting PM 10 concentrations in 2010: comparison with EU indicative Stage 2 limit value of 20 µ gm -3 – Site specific receptor m odelling and projections of current, historical and future concentrations – Maps of current and future concentrations • Costs of measures • Analysis of the health and wider environm ental benefits of reductions in concentrations • Implications for Local Authorities Pow er Stations APEG: recap Contributions to PM10 at London Bloomsbury: 1999 Contributions to PM10 at London Bloomsbury: 2010 Primary 22% Primary Other 33% 35% Other 46% Secondary_UK 16% Secondary_European Secondary_UK Secondary_European 16% 16% 16% Primary: Primary: 63% Traffic 42% Traffic 37% Stationary 58% Stationary 3

Baseline scenario ( current policies) • Traffic activity: – NRTF 10 year plan ‘plan scenario’ for England and Wales, Transport Delivery Plan for Scotland, NRTF (1997) for Northern Ireland • Traffic technology assumptions: – Diesel car sales, Cleaner fuels, Early Euro IV, Particulate traps • Stationary sources from EP68 (DTI, 2000) • Secondary from a com bination of rural measurements (sulphate and nitrate) and models (1997 and 2010 NECD) I llustrative package of possible additional m easures • Traffic measures: – Particulate traps (2006) – ‘Zero S’ fuels (2005) – Retrofits (2001-2004, illustrated for London) • Stationary source measures – Industry (filters, ESP, fuel switch) – Domestic (fuel switch) – Commercial and Public Buildings (filters) 4

Site specific projections Enable us to m ake a rapid assessm ent of the im pact a range of policies on concentrations in all years APEG Receptor Model: PM 10 = primary + secondary + ‘other’ primary combustion PM 10 from NO x measurements ! secondary PM 10 from sulphate measurements ! ‘other’ is the residual ! regression analysis: PM 10 = A.NO x + B.Sulphate + C London Bloom sbury 1 9 9 6 120 secondary contribution 100 primary contribution coarse contribution 80 ugm-3 60 40 20 0 01/01/96 09/02/96 18/03/96 22/04/96 27/05/96 04/07/96 08/08/96 12/09/96 17/10/96 21/11/96 5

Baseline Projections • Primary particles: – NAEI 1 km emissions maps to determine the sectors contributing to local primary PM 10 using an ADMS based dispersion matrix, then project each sector both forwards and backwards in time • Secondary particles • No change in coarse particle concentrations PM 1 0 LONDON Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at London Bloomsbury 45 40 Annual mean concentration (ugm-3, gravimetric) PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year With a 1.3 factor applied to TEOM measurements 6

PM 1 0 LONDON Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at London Bloomsbury 45 PM10_1996_projection 40 PM10_1997_projection PM10_1998_projection PM10_1999_projection 35 Measured_PM10 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year With a 1.3 factor applied to TEOM measurements PM 1 0 BELFAST Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at Belfast Centre 45 PM10_1996_projection 40 PM10_1997_projection PM10_1998_projection 35 PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year 7

PM 1 0 SUTTON Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at Sutton Roadside 40 PM10_1997_projection 35 PM10_1998_projection PM10_1999_projection 30 Measured_PM10 25 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year Maps of estim ated background concentrations Built up from components, each of which can then be projected forwards to 2010: • primary: empirical dispersion coefficient derived from measurement data, ADMS and NAEI • secondary: maps of measured rural sulphate 8

Annual m ean sulphate ( µ µ µ µ gSO 4 m -3 ) Annual m ean sulphate ( µ µ µ µ gSO 4 m -3 ) 9

Maps of estim ated background concentrations Built up from components, each of which can then be projected forwards to 2010: • primary: empirical dispersion coefficient derived from measurement data, ADMS and NAEI • secondary: maps of measured rural sulphate • regional coarse: constant (about 10 µ gm -3, gravimetric) Base year m aps Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2 10

2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2 2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps: Roadside concentrations Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2 11

2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps: London ( 1 9 9 9 base year) Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2 Cost of m easures in I llustrative scenario in 2 0 1 0 • Total annualised cost: £785m - £1,115m • Range reflects particular uncertainty in cost of particulate traps for cars • Stationary source measures only: £219m • Stationary measures more effective at reducing background concentrations, traffic measures more effective at the roadside 12

Reductions in PM 1 0 concentrations in 2 0 1 0 Relative to baseline (current policies) • Change in population weighted annual mean background concentration: 0.751 µ gm -3 • Reduction in the number of urban major road links exceeding an annual mean of 20 µ gm -3 from 34% to 19% of the total number of road links (16% to 3% outside London) Health benefits: Chronic ( Long term ) UK population 2010 to 2110: • Gain of 278,000 to 508,000 life years. 81,000 to 212,000 after discounting (range reflects uncertainty in lagtime between exposure and effect) • Considerable uncertainty, therefore sensitivity analyses: – zero chronic effects (acute only) – range of coefficients – different cohorts 13

Health benefits: Acute ( Short term ) UK population 2010 to 2110: • 25,200 fewer respiratory hospital admissions (additional or brought forward) • 4,820 fewer deaths brought forward and 3,690 fewer respiratory hospital admissions (additional or brought forward) due to reductions in SO 2 Non-Health benefits UK 2010: • £52.3m reduction in building soiling • £0.9m reduction in material corrosion caused by SO 2 • loss of £0.9m due to decrease in SO 2 inputs to crops • Potential health benefits much greater 14

I m plications for Local Authorities • Next round of Review and Assessment may focus on 2010. • Planning Applications will need to follow. • Technical Guidance is being updated to facilitate • National policy work does NOT include local road junctions 15