Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software Michael Mace, April 7, 2009 mike@rubiconconsulting.com @ g
About Rubicon • Help high tech organizations win markets through business and market strategy g gy – Since 1999 – Practices: define, deliver, defend, optimize Software ecosystems Page 2
About me • Macintosh software developer • Apple Apple – Director of Mac platform marketing – Director of customer & competitive analysis – Director of customer & competitive analysis • Palm/PalmSource – VP of product planning VP of product planning – Chief competitive officer Software ecosystems Page 3
Everybody wants a platform Software ecosystems Page 4
Where did this "platform" thing Where did this platform thing come from in the first place? Software ecosystems Page 5
Agenda • A quick history of software platforms • What makes a platform win? What makes a platform win? • Where will the industry go next? Software ecosystems Page 6
W We remember hardware better b h d b tt than software • What's the first first electronic computer? p • ENIAC 1946 • ENIAC, 1946 Software ecosystems Page 7
What was the first business computer? Software ecosystems Page 8
J. Lyons & Co. Software ecosystems Page 9
J. Lyons & Co. • 30,000 employees • 150m meals a year 150m meals a year • 36 miles of Swiss roll a day • ...all on paper Software ecosystems Page 10
1951: The first business computer • Lyons LEO, 1951 – Paid Cambridge $5k – 5,000 square feet, 4k of memory 5 000 sq are feet 4k of memor weighing half a ton –Payroll, inventory, order management... • Processed an employee's wages in 1.5 seconds (vs. 8 minutes) • Lyons spun out as a L computer company David Caminer, the first business app programmer / systems analyst Software ecosystems Page 11
Software was synonymous with hardware with hardware • First verified use of term "software" software • John Tukey, 1958 – Statistician Statistician • Princeton and Bell Labs – Helped design the U2 – Popularized the term "bit" Software ecosystems Page 12
What was the first third party app? Software ecosystems Page 13
The first third-party app • Applied Data Research Autoflow, 1964 – An automatic flowcharting program • Also the first patented software – RCA first then IBM – RCA first, then IBM – IBM: free clone – US government antitrust suit, 1969 – January 1, 1970: IBM unbundles Software ecosystems Page 14
The first third-party app • Martin Goetz – Project Manager, Project Manager Autoflow – Holder of first software patent • Mike Guzik – Lead programmer, Autoflow Computerworld, June1968 Software ecosystems Page 15
1970s: Rise of the killer app Software ecosystems Page 16
1979: VisiCalc • "Visicalc could some day become the software tail become the software tail that wags (and sells) the personal computer dog." p p g – Ben Rosen, later the founder of Compaq, writing as an Dan Bricklin at the Dan Bricklin at the analyst with Morgan Stanley l t ith M St l West Coast Computer Faire, May 1979 Software ecosystems Page 17
1980s: Separation of OS from hardware • August 1980 – IBM signs Microsoft to supply the OS for to supply the OS for its new computer • August 1981 – IBM PC ships • 1982 – Microsoft licenses Microsoft licenses MS-DOS to 50 hardware manufacturers Software ecosystems Page 18
Agenda • A quick history of software platforms • What makes a platform win? What makes a platform win? • Where will the industry go next? Software ecosystems Page 19
The web discovers APIs • Mashups Software ecosystems Page 20
Mobile discovers APIs One-year growth in registered developers • Intense interest due to 25,000 recent successes of a recent successes of a certain mobile device 20,000 15,000 15 000 10,000 5,000 0 0 Software ecosystems Page 21
Mobile discovers APIs One-year growth in registered Palm developers • Intense interest due to 25,000 recent successes of a recent successes of a certain mobile device 20,000 15 000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 1998 1999 Software ecosystems Page 22
"That's unfair" Software ecosystems Page 23
Reality: Most platforms fail Software ecosystems Page 24
Definition of failure depends on your goal on your goal Need for developers – Give me a marketing boost over Don't care Don t care the competition h i i – Get developers to add features Care somewhat C h t I don't have time to develop – Address user problems and sub- dd ess use p ob e s a d sub Care a lot markets that neither of us could have tackled alone Software ecosystems Page 25
What motivates developers? Software ecosystems Page 26
How platforms fail Almost Apps hard to find impossible to Store financials outrageous g monetize Inconsistent APIs (raises cost) Very hard to get on device Software ecosystems Page 27
The PC and Windows • The Rise – IBM drives belief in large user base IBM drives belief in large user base – Hardware architecture permits powerful apps (for the time) – Open APIs Open APIs – Clone licensing drives additional growth; virtuous circle • The Decline – Microsoft preys on successful software developers – Intel and Microsoft can't coordinate innovation Software ecosystems Page 28
The less friction, the more apps • Easy to develop – Powerful APIs, great documentation and support, uses Powerful APIs great documentation and support uses existing tools/languages, easy to debug • Easy to sell asy to se – No artificial barriers, easy discovery, marketing, installation, billing, reasonable financials • Large user base – Or the belief that it'll get large Software ecosystems Page 29
Pluses and minuses of iPhone ecosystem ecosystem Strength Weakness App functionality A f i li APIs Very capable limited Develop- p Familiar if you're a Mac y Nonstandard; Java and developer Flash missing ment Arbitrary screening by Store Built in, pretty good terms Apple price pressure Apple, price pressure Perception of world (Will it continue to User base domination, high traffic seen grow?) by websites by websites Software ecosystems Page 30
The ultimate ecosystem doesn't yet exist doesn t yet exist • Advantages of an integrated platform Advantages of an integrated platform – Great discovery, billing, support, APIs • Advantages of web app development Advantages of web app development – Lots of Ajax-style tools, instant deployment, huge user base, write once run anywhere Software ecosystems Page 31
Agenda • A quick history of software platforms • What makes a platform win? What makes a platform win? • Where will the industry go next? Software ecosystems Page 32
Opportunity in disaggregation 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s • Computers • Software that lets computers do multiple tasks • Independent software • OS platforms separated from hardware hardware • Platforms separated from OS Software ecosystems Page 33
"The Network is the Computer" Application � Windows � PC hardware Application � Solaris Solaris or Java � Sparc servers Software ecosystems Page 34
Problems • Latency • Richness of APIs Richness of APIs • Access to on-device features and data • Mobile makes it worse – Limited bandwidth – High latency – High cost – Limited capacity – Limited coverage – Battery life Software ecosystems Page 35
Next: The OS disaggregates Application Local OS Local hardware Software ecosystems Page 36
The Meta-Platform is the Computer Cloud servers Cloud components Application L Local OS l OS Local hardware Local hardware Software ecosystems Page 37
Remember • If you're a developer – Which platform gives me the best long-term business "Which platform gives me the best long term business proposition?" • If you're a platform vendor you e a p at o e do – "How can I create a better ecosystem than the other guy?" • Opportunity: Disaggregating the OS – Balancing local and cloud OS services Software ecosystems Page 38
Discussion • mike@rubiconconsulting.com • http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com http://mobileopportunity blogspot com Software ecosystems Page 39
Win Markets T Trusted Advisors to high-tech firms seeking d Ad i hi h h fi ki to transform their visions into strategies, strategies into plans, and plans into results. Practices: Define / Design / Defend / Optimize Software ecosystems Page 40
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