European ecosystems in alternative future worlds Tim Carter - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France European ecosystems in alternative future worlds Tim Carter Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Aim of this presentation To illustrate four common steps in the development of scenarios, namely: 1. Devise the focal questions of the scenarios 2. Construct scenario storylines 3. Quantify scenario elements 4. Regionalise scenarios (optional) 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France 1. Focal questions: Contrasting objectives; contrasting scenarios

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Examples of global and regional scenarios Illustration only, not to be cited Scenarios Orientation Target audience Notable feature Global GSG Academic Research Path-setting GEO-3/GEO-4 Sustainable Policy Illustrative development SRES Climate change Research/policy Pervasive MA Ecosystem services Awareness Multi-scale raising/policy Shell/WBCSD Environment Business Abstract WWV Water Policy Precautionary Regional ESPON/FARO Spatial planning EU policy-makers Prescriptive ATEAM/ALARM Ecosystems Research Exploratory 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios � Focus: plausible future changes in ecosystems, in the supply of and demand for ecosystem services, and in the consequent changes in human well-being � Key concerns: identified through a survey of user needs and interviews with decision-makers and leaders. Included: • globalization • leadership • poverty and inequality • technology • local flexibility • surprises 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: conceptual framework Source: MEA, 2003 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France 2. Storylines: Narrative descriptions of future worlds

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) storylines Global Orchestration Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden Nelson et al., 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Global Orchestration The Global Orchestration scenario depicts a worldwide connected society in which global markets are well developed. Supra-national institutions are well placed to deal with global environmental problems, such as climate change and fisheries. However, their reactive approach to ecosystem management makes them vulnerable to surprises arising from delayed action or unexpected regional changes. Nelson et al., 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Order from Strength The Order from Strength scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, and paying little attention to the common goods, and with an individualistic attitude toward ecosystem management. Nelson et al., 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Adapting Mosaic The Adapting Mosaic scenario depicts a fragmented world resulting from discredited global institutions. It sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the strengthening of local institutions. Investments in human and social capital are geared toward improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and management, resulting in a better understanding of the importance of resilience, fragility, and local flexibility of ecosystems. Nelson et al., 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France TechnoGarden The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and on highly managed and often-engineered ecosystems to deliver needed goods and services. Overall, eco-efficiency improves, but it is shadowed by the risks inherent in large-scale humanmade solutions. Nelson et al., 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Some other storylines

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Global Scenarios Group (GSG): Three archetypal scenarios of the future � Conventional Worlds: current trends play out without major discontinuity and surprise in the evolution of institutions, environmental systems and human values. � Barbarization: fundamental social change occurs, but is unwelcome, bringing great human misery and collapse of civilized norms. � Great Transitions: fundamental social transformation but to a new and arguably higher stage of human civilization. Gallopin et al ., 1997 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Scenarios structure with illustrative patterns of change Conventional Worlds Reference Policy Reform Barbarization Breakdown Fortress world Great Transitions Eco- communalism New sustainability paradigm Gallopin et al ., 1997 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook Four storylines (GEO-3 and GEO-4): � Markets First � Policy First � Security First � Sustainability First Source: UNEP, 2007 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France GEO-4 Sustainability First The dominant characteristic of this scenario is the assumption that actors at all levels – local, national, regional and international, and from all sectors, including government, private and civil – actually follow through on the pledges made to date to address environmental and social concerns. This implies behaviour that honours not only the letter, but also the spirit of these promises. Source: UNEP, 2007 4.9.2008

IPCC* Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): Scenario framework and change drivers Environmental emphasis A1 storyline: B1 storyline World: market-oriented World: convergent Economy: service and information Economy: fastest per capita growth Population: 2050 peak, then based; lower growth than A1 decline Population: same as A1 Governance: strong regional Governance: global solutions to interactions; income convergence economic, social and environmental Regional emphasis sustainability Technology: three scenario groups: Technology: clean and resource- A1FI : fossil intensive efficient Global Integration A1T :non-fossil energy sources A1B : balanced across all sources A2 storyline B2 storyline World: differentiated World: local solutions Economy: intermediate growth Economy: regionally oriented; Population: continuously increasing lowest per capita growth Population: continuously increasing at lower rate than A2 Governance: local and regional Governance: Self-reliance with preservation of local identities solutions to environmental protection and social equity Technology: slowest and most fragmented development Technology: More rapid than A2; less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1 Economic emphasis Based on Nakicenovic et al., 2000 *Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 Open Doors Low Trust Globalisation A pragmatic “know me” world. A legalistic “prove it to me” world. Flags A dogmatic “follow me” world. Shell International Limited, 2005 4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Some common elements of storylines: mixing and matching

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Comparison of selected global scenarios Raskin et al., 2005

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France Comparison of selected global scenarios Illustration only, not to be cited /4 MA Global Orchestration TechnoGarden Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic GEO-4 Global Environmental Outlook, MA Millennium Modified and updated from Raskin et al., 2005 Ecosystem Assessment

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France 3. Quantified scenario elements

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France How can we quantify scenarios? � Define exogenously (e.g. from published projections – often indirect drivers) 4.9.2008