Planning for the Future: 2015-16 Enrollment Report & BOE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Planning for the Future: 2015-16 Enrollment Report & BOE Approved Attendance Areas for 2016-17 December 2015 1

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Planning Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP Ryan McKay Senior Planner, AICP  Founded in 2003 Educators  Professional educational planning firm Diane DeBacker, Ed.D. Education Planner  Expertise in multiple disciplines Clay Guthmiller Education Planner Jay Harris  Over 20 years of planning experience Education Planner David Stoakes Education Planner, Ed.D.  Over 80 years of education experience Susan Swift Education Planner, Ph.D.  Over 20 years of GIS experience GIS Analyst  Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Tyler Link and North Dakota GIS Analyst  Projection accuracy of 97% or greater 3

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3 Key Items About the District • Enrollment is projected to increase over the next five years by nearly 560 students (Pre-K Included) (80 to 135 student increase annually) • Capacity Concerns: Current concerns at nearly every facility. However, as the facility master plan improvements are realized and as the Committee progresses through the scenario development, the capacity challenges will be lessened • There is considerable opportunity for future growth in the District area. The development of this vacant land will have a significant effect on future enrollment 6

District Map • District boundary is a purple line • Solid colors represent city jurisdictions: • Platte City (green) • Kansas City (blue) • Parkville (light green) • Major Streets • Major water features 7

2015/16 Attendance Areas • District Boundary (purple line) • Attendance Areas • North Feeder (tan) • South Feeder (green) • Major Streets • Major water features 8

Planning Areas • Planning Area (green lines) • Created by: • Existing Attendance Areas • Natural Features • Manmade Features • Type of Development (SF, MF, Dup) • Nearly 350 planning areas 9

Planning Areas (Detailed) • Zoomed into Rising Star Elementary • Show the power of GIS information • See where students are located in relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels • Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to the parcel 10

Sophisticated Forecast Model Built-Out This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an Developing accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better Where: understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects. 11

Model Components Students & People Development • Cohort Growth • External Growth Streets • Kindergarten Change Attendance Areas • Economic Scenarios City County 12

Past School Enrollment Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2003/04 208 194 188 174 197 199 186 198 191 185 163 145 167 2,395 2004/05 229 207 211 200 191 207 202 199 214 200 186 169 148 2,563 2005/06 224 231 204 223 204 188 215 208 217 222 204 189 171 2,700 2006/07 223 227 234 222 218 223 197 216 212 219 216 209 172 2,788 2007/08 241 236 231 241 229 223 237 203 226 222 229 214 197 2,929 2008/09 283 258 262 238 253 246 244 241 226 238 234 236 214 3,173 2009/10 294 292 255 262 252 262 262 247 254 235 246 247 222 3,330 2010/11 314 294 309 267 283 263 286 267 265 260 244 256 248 3,556 2011/12 306 309 306 313 267 293 279 283 276 280 252 247 252 3,663 2012/13 302 301 312 310 312 292 295 278 292 267 283 239 240 3,723 2013/14 311 310 299 315 314 319 297 293 282 298 263 263 236 3,800 2014/15 292 319 310 307 325 315 320 303 299 292 286 255 270 3,893 2015/16 339 291 328 312 314 343 317 306 305 292 294 265 259 3,965 Source: Platte County School District Pig in the Snake Effect Largest class in 2015/16 – 5 th (343) • Smallest class in 2015/16 – 12 th grade (259) • Oink? • Graduating senior class will likely be smaller than the next year incoming Kindergarten class The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th grade The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School 13

Past School Enrollment Change K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th From To K 21 -1 17 12 17 10 3 13 16 9 1 6 3 2003/04 2004/05 -5 2 -3 12 4 -3 8 6 18 8 4 3 2 2004/05 2005/06 -1 3 3 18 -5 19 9 1 4 2 -6 5 -17 2005/06 2006/07 18 13 4 7 7 5 14 6 10 10 10 -2 -12 2006/07 2007/08 42 17 26 7 12 17 21 4 23 12 12 7 0 2007/08 2008/09 11 9 -3 0 14 9 16 3 13 9 8 13 -14 2008/09 2009/10 20 0 17 12 21 11 24 5 18 6 9 10 1 2009/10 2010/11 -8 -5 12 4 0 10 16 -3 9 15 -8 3 -4 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2012/13 -4 -5 3 4 -1 25 2 -1 9 -9 3 -13 -7 9 8 -2 3 4 7 5 -2 4 6 -4 -20 -3 2012/13 2013/14 -19 8 0 8 10 1 1 6 6 10 -12 -8 7 2013/14 2014/15 47 -1 9 2 7 18 2 -14 2 -7 2 -21 4 2014/15 2015/16 12.3 5.0 2.3 4.3 7.0 8.7 2.7 -3.3 4.0 3.0 -4.7 -16.3 2.7 3 - Yr Avg 18.7 3.5 4.2 4.2 7.5 10.5 2.2 -5.3 3.7 0.8 -3.7 -16.5 3.8 3 - Yr Wavg Source: Platte County School District Examining the Trends • Largest average class cohort increase – Kindergarten (12 students) Largest average class cohort decrease – 10 th to 11 th grade (16 students) • • Propensity to have each cohort increase students from year to year in most grades The above enrollment totals are Kindergarten to 12th grade The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School 14

Student In-Migration • 2015/16 students who are in 1 st through 12 th grade that were not attending the District in 2014/15 as Kindergarten through 11 th grade • Who is new to the District that was not attending in previous years? • Is it related to changes in the community? • New Students in 2015/16 • ES : +276 • MS : +99 • HS : +102 • District : +477 15

Student Out-Migration • Students attending the District in 2014/15 who were in Kindergarten through 11 th grade that did not attend in 2015/16 as 1 st through 12 th graders • Who was in the District that is not attending now? • Is it related to perceptions of a school building? • Is it related to changes in the community? • No Longer Students in 2015/16 • ES : -272 • MS : -115 • HS : -92 • District : -479 • Net Migration : -2 16

Student Heat Map • Red areas depict highest, gray as lowest student density • Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points • Illustrates by student address where there is the greatest clustering of students • This type of analysis can help with understanding student population and geographic proximity to schools • The greatest density with point data tends to be in higher density developments and mobile home parks • This map is the start to understanding future facility locations 17

Development Trends 1,400 1,200 Change From Previous Year 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2009 to 2010 to 2011 to 2012 to 2013 to 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Population Change 1,035 1,094 1,157 1,217 336 426 366 372 Enrollment Change 141 244 157 226 107 60 77 93 Certificate Occupancy 400 217 142 104 78 138 182 109 Source: Platte County, Platte County R-3 School District, and RSP The above numbers reflect census population change, District enrollment change, and Certificate of Occupancies issued each year.

Student Density Change (11/12 – 15/16) • Depicts number of students per square mile within a planning area from 2011/12 to 2015/16 • Orange areas experienced an increase since 2015/16; green areas a decrease • White areas had no net change of students 2015/16 • Several older areas of the community are experiencing a “ regreening ” effect • As new developments come online, there will be even greater changes in those type of development. 19

Residential Year Built • Is development changing – will it impact enrollment and use of facilities? • Will households be able to afford the types of housing stock being built? • What housing products will be built (SF, MF, smaller or larger)? • Will the development continue as initially planned? • Colors of dots represent specific years according to Platte County, Clay County and City of Kansas City. • Map represents conditions as of early 2015 (not all the data was available for 2015) 20

Median Home Value • Based on Census & ESRI data estimates by RSP Planning Area. Some areas not as up to date as others • Home values likely correlated to socio-economic status • Areas shaded in orange and red have the greatest Median Home Value • Areas shaded in gray/light purple have the least Median Home Value 21