Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment November 9, 2016 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment November 9, 2016 1

Discussion Points  Enrollment and Demographics Discussion (Part 1) • Planning Areas • Past Enrollment • Baseline Data • Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM) • Model Components • Issues and Assumptions  Development Discussion (Part 2) • What is going on with development  Enrollment Projections Discussion (Part 3) • District • Elementary • Secondary  Next Steps (Part 4) 2

Planning Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP V ISUALIZING S UCCESS Educators  Founded in 2003 Clay Guthmiller Education Planner  Professional educational planning firm Jay Harris Education Planner  Expertise in multiple disciplines David Stoakes Education Planner, Ed.D.  Over 20 years of planning experience Susan Swift Education Planner, Ph.D.  Over 80 years of education experience GIS Analyst  Over 20 years of GIS experience Tyler Link GIS Analyst  Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Brandon Sylvester Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and North GIS Analyst Dakota  Projection accuracy of 97% or greater 3

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Bismarck Public School District • Administration County, City & Others • Burleigh County • City of Bismarck • City of Lincoln • Census Bureau/ESRI • Realtors • Developers • Assessor 6

• Projected Enrollment will increase over the next five years to over 14,000 K-12 students (+12.6%) • Capacity Challenges: - Tweaked out all efficiencies of available capacity - Elementary: within 200 students district-wide elementary capacity - some schools will have challenges (Highland Acres, Liberty, Lincoln, Northridge, Solheim, Sunrise) - Middle School: all middle schools beyond capacity - High School: over district-wide high school capacity – some schools will have challenges (Century) • Development Continues - The district is likely to deal with inadequate facility space in locations where the greatest development is slated to happen 7

District Map – Zoomed In • District Boundary (purple) • City Limits (Bismarck and Lincoln) • Major Streets • Major water features • City Boundaries 8

High School Attendance Area Map • District Boundary (purple) • Major Streets • Major Parks • High School Attendance Areas - Legacy High (Yellow) - Century High (Green) - Bismarck High (Pink) 9

Middle School Attendance Area Map • District Boundary (purple) • Major Streets • Major Parks • Middle School Attendance Areas - Horizon (Yellow) - Simle (Green) - Wachter (Pink) 10

Elementary Attendance Area Map • District Boundary (purple) • Major Streets • Major Parks • Elementary Attendance Areas 11

Planning Areas • By Land Use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) • By Residential Density (single-family, mobile, home, duplex, apartments) • By Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks) • By Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets) • By ES Attendance Area • By MS Attendance Area • By HS Attendance Area • Over 900 planning areas 12

Planning Area Detail Map • Show the power of GIS information – zoomed into Highland Acres • See where students are located in relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels • Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to the parcel 13

This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects. Built-Out Developing Where: 14

• Cohort Growth Students & People Development • External Growth Streets Attendance Areas • Kindergarten Change City County • Economic Scenarios 15

Enrollment By Grade Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2005/06 672 703 760 731 771 732 747 845 791 874 920 904 932 10,382 2006/07 809 722 751 797 775 826 775 798 865 814 869 891 849 10,541 2007/08 769 830 735 773 809 805 841 828 804 893 816 866 865 10,634 2008/09 841 773 834 758 800 815 824 856 835 852 882 806 826 10,702 2009/10 820 820 766 836 750 807 815 837 872 847 810 844 814 10,638 2010/11 850 823 827 780 839 756 806 855 839 909 866 824 878 10,852 2011/12 936 848 850 833 787 851 767 819 837 852 917 854 833 10,984 2012/13 966 969 875 870 852 826 846 803 828 879 878 890 862 11,344 2013/14 1,001 974 991 918 891 864 844 872 806 853 914 877 885 11,690 2014/15 991 1,035 983 1,020 927 916 891 866 888 864 849 923 841 11,994 2015/16 1,003 1,016 1,041 1,018 1,026 941 932 924 899 936 874 868 895 12,373 2016/17 997 1,007 1,008 1,056 1,023 1,034 973 948 940 983 924 894 856 12,643 Source: Bismarck Public School District Pig in the Snake Effect Largest class in 2016/17 – 3 rd grade (1,056) • Smallest class in 2016/17 – 12 th grade (856) • • Graduating senior class smaller than the next year incoming Kindergarten class Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School 16

Change By Grade from the Previous Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2005/06 2006/07 137 50 48 37 44 55 43 51 20 23 -5 -29 -55 2006/07 2007/08 -40 21 13 22 12 30 15 53 6 28 2 -3 -26 2007/08 2008/09 72 4 4 23 27 6 19 15 7 48 -11 -10 -40 2008/09 2009/10 -21 -21 -7 2 -8 7 0 13 16 12 -42 -38 8 2009/10 2010/11 30 3 7 14 3 6 -1 40 2 37 19 14 34 2010/11 2011/12 86 -2 27 6 7 12 11 13 -18 13 8 -12 9 2011/12 2012/13 30 33 27 20 19 39 -5 36 9 42 26 -27 8 2012/13 2013/14 35 8 22 43 21 12 18 26 3 25 35 -1 -5 2013/14 2014/15 -10 34 9 29 9 25 27 22 16 58 -4 9 -36 2014/15 2015/16 12 25 6 35 6 14 16 33 33 48 10 19 -28 2015/16 2016/17 -6 4 -8 15 5 8 32 16 16 84 -12 20 -12 3-Yr Avg -1.3 21.0 2.3 26.3 6.7 15.7 25.0 23.7 21.7 63.3 -2.0 16.0 -25.3 3-Yr Wavg -0.7 16.0 -0.5 24.0 6.0 12.8 25.8 22.7 21.7 67.7 -3.3 17.8 -21.3 Source: Bismarck Public School District Changes: Largest average class increase – 8 th to 9 th grade (+63) • Largest average class decrease – 11 th to 12 th grade (-25) • • Propensity to have cohort increase students from year to year in nearly all grades Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School 17

In-Migration Map – Zoomed In • 2016/17 students who are in 1st through 12th grade that were not attending the district in 2015/16 as kindergarten through 11th grade • Who is new to the District that was not attending the previous year • Is it related to a particular type of Development (SF, MF, Dup)? • Is it related to perceptions of a school building? • 2014/15 : 1,024 new students • 2016/17 : 962 new students 18

Out-Migration – Zoomed In • students attending the district in 2013/14 who were in kindergarten through 11th grade that are not attending in 2014/15 as 1st through 12th grade • Who was in the District that is not attending the current year • Is it related to a particular type of Development (SF, MF, Dup)? • Is it related to perceptions of a school building? • 2014/15 : 839 students no longer attending • 2016/17 : 820 students no longer attending 19

Known Information • Current Enrollment is closing in on 13,000 students • New residential permits greater averaging more than 400 units per year • 2016 Average Household Size is 2.3 • 2016 Census Population within Bismarck Public Schools over 90,000 in 2010 under 80,000 • 2016 Census Female Population over 51% • 2016 Census Household Annual Population Rate increase of about 2.4% Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online from Census Data Other things to Consider • Building Permits – New Residential Development is anticipated to be very vibrant • Average Household Size should increase with younger families relocating to Bismarck • Younger aged households have a greater propensity for school aged children • Economic outlook is anticipated to be very good 20

Census Map (Children Ages 0-4 in 2021) • Density weighted by land area of each Census Block Group • Dark Red has the greatest density, Light Orange has the least • This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment • Census data underestimates growing areas 21

Census Map (Female Ages 15-59 in 2021) • Density weighted by land area of each Census Block Group • Dark Red has the greatest density, Light Orange has the least • This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment • Census data underestimates growing areas 22