ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT Training Workshop and Inception Seminar, Bangkok, 3-8 th Feb 2019 Pilot River Basin Methodology and Action Plan
Outlines - RBP introduction - Disaster’s Profile - Disaster Risk Management System and Challenge - Objective of RBP - Methodology - Activities Plan - Expected Outputs/ Outcomes - Expectation for Capacity Building ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
3 RBP Introduction <Legend> : River Basin Boundary : Canal and Drainage Channel : Embankment of Moe Yin Gyi Lake Table. Characteristics of Bago River Basin Item Value Main river length About 210 km About 5,300 km 2 Catchment area Main river Bago-Sittaung Canal, Irrigation structures drainage channel system, Dams, Flood shortcut channel, Dikes Floods happen in downstream low-lying area not only by Bago river but also by rainfall accumulation in low-lying Elevation (m) 0 depression. 10 20 Tidal fluctuation affects the water level of 30 50 100 Bago river up to the middle stream by 200 500 backwater effect. 1000 ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
4 Disasters’ profile Natural Disasters in Myanmar • 2006 Apr Cyclone Mala • 2008 May Cyclone Nargis • 2010 Oct Cyclone GIRI • 2011 Mar Tarlay Strong Earthquake • 2011 JJA Heavy Rain & Floods • 2011 Oct Pakokku Flash Flood • 2012 JJA Lower/NE Myanmar Floods • 2012 Nov Shwebo Strong Earthquake • 2013 May Cyclone Mahasen • 2013 JJA Heavy rain triggered secondary hazards. • 2015 July Komen Cyclone • 2018 June Heavy rainfall (Mawlamyine) Mahasen, 2013 Mala, 2006 Akash, 2007 Nargis, 2008 Bijli, 2009 Giri, 2010 ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
5 Disasters’ profile Table. Flood damage record in 2018 (as of Sep 2018) Fig. Flood by Bago River ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
6 Disaster risk management system and challenges Challenges • How to spread the disaster risk information to local people (community level) • Communication problem between about 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
7 The objectives of RBP To set up methodology of flood hazard and risk assessment for the target river basin To demonstrate the methodology for better understanding and to create a guideline incorporating examples and opinions from AMS To disseminate the demonstrated methodology to apply the other river basins ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
8 Methodology for disaster risk assessment and mapping Runoff Model (with HEC-HMS) Flood hazards and risks will Input Output be analyzed with series of • Precipitation • River discharge hydrograph • Catchment area • Land use Data Storage System (with HEC-DSS) HEC software combining etc. • Soil type Impact of Climate Change runoff model, inundation Inundation Analysis Model (with HEC-RAS) model and damage model. Input Output • River cross section • Inundation depth • Manning’s N value • Inundation duration Outputs will be succeeded • Land use Flood Hazard Mapping • Discharge hydrograph etc. • Stage hydrograph as input of the next model. Flood Damage Analysis Model (with HEC-FDA) The impact of climate Input Output change will be incorporated • Population • Affected people • Property • Damage • Inundation depth Flood Risk Mapping to the increase of rainfall etc. • Inundation duration Figure. Flow chart of the methodology for and also sea level rise. disaster risk assessment and mapping ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
9 Activity plan • Data collection for flood inundation modeling by the end of April, 2019 • Case visits in the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan to learn best practices in the countries (in March, July and November, 2019 respectively) • Technical transfer on runoff modeling and flood hazard modeling through collaborative work in the field study in May, 2019 • Guideline will be developed in this project through RBP study, then the guideline will be shared with AMS. Finally, the guideline needs to be accepted by AMS incorporating their comments. ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
10 Expected outputs/outcomes • Flood hazard map and risk map for Bago river basin • Enhance the data based management system through collaborative work for hydrological modeling • Flood hazard map and risk map can produce better planning for flood prevention and mitigation, and successively, save people, their livelihood, livestock, crops, etc. by implementing the plan. ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
11 Expectations for Capacity Building • Better understanding for the methodology of flood risk assessment and for the process of hydrological modeling and for the importance of observation data • Mutual learning among AMS through the activities in the project (field survey, case visit and workshops). ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT
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