Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Inc. 1 2 2 E A S T 4 2 n d - PDF document

Telephone: (212) 867-0052 PI R 1 N C: Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Inc. 1 2 2 E A S T 4 2 n d S T R E E T New York, N. Y. 10168 CITGO CORPORATION PRESENTATION JUNE 28, 1983

(Million Barrels Per Day) 1902 1903 1981 Annual Annual Annual QA . Avg . Horldtl) Oil Demand 02 Q2 fli fll 02 £2 DA fll fll JQ1 15.2 15.3 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.5 United States 17.0 15.5 15.5 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.1 11.7 12.7 11.4 12.2 Western Europe 14.2 13.7 11.9 13.0 12.6 11.4 13.3 12.0 ' 11.9 13.8 •13.0 5.2 4.1 '4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.C 4.3 Japan 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.9 Other 1 1 . 2 12^1 1 1 . 2 ll.fi 11,6. 11*2 1 1 . 5 llai 45.2 43.4 44.7 50.0 47.8 44.6 43.8 45.7 45.5 43.3 46.9 Total 45.3 45.2 48.4 47.3 Korld Oil Supplies United States (2) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 • 10.8 10.0 10.0 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.0 Mexico 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.G 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3-'.0 3.1 3.0 Uorth Sen 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.0 Othor(3) JL^S 6.5 ,6.6 _JLfi JL.fi _J_.Q JL.1 llon-OPEC 22.1 ?.3 J . n 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.7 23.1 ?.3.5 23.7 23.9 2 A '.2 Communist Met Exports 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1. 1.6 OPECi Crude 24.8 23.2 20.8 21.1 19.4 22.5 17.3 18.0 19.2 18.5 15.2 15.9 17.4 20.1 17.1 1!GL _o.n -JU-Q -Ixfi . 0.9 JLJL JLJ1 -0.^1 25.8 24.2 20.4 Tr.o 21.0 22.1 23.5 IB. 2 18.9 20.1 19.4 15.9 16.7 IP. 3 P.I.I Total Supplies 49.0 47.0 45.3 45.7 47.0 44.2 42.8 43.7 45.5 44.1 41.0 42.0 43.0 46.9 43.4 Comncrcinl/Strategic Inventory Change -1.0 +2.5 -3.6 ' +0.1 -2.7 -0.3 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1'.4 -4.2 -1.3 H O . 4 -1.3 1) non-communist world. 2) Includes processing gain. 3) Includes cynthetic and process gain outcide the United States. llotot Ruin of parto may not equal total owing to rounding

NON-COMMUNIST WORLD OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE. 1978-1990 (MILLION BARRELS PER DAY) 1978 1982 1985 1990 CONSUMPTION 51,5 45,4 /47.0 49,4 OTHER ,ADJUSTMENTS A) -0,1 -1,3 +0,3 +0,2 TOTAL NCW REQUIREMENTS 51,4 44.1 47,3 49,6 NON-OPEC SUPPLIES B) 20.8 24.7 25,9 25,9 OPEC NGL PRODUCTION 0,7 0,9 1,4 1.6 REQUIRED OPEC CRUDE OUTPUT 29,9 18.5 20.0 22.1 A) INCLUDES CRUDE OIL STOCKPILING REQUIREMENTS, INVENTORY CHANGES AND UNACCOUNTED FOR CRUDE LOSSES, B) INCLUDES U,S, PROCESSING GAIN, NET OIL EXPORTS FROM COMMUNIST COUNTRIES AND NGL PRODUCTION, SOURCE: HISTORICAL DATA, U,S, DOE AND "BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY", PROJECTIONS ARE THOSE OF PIRA,

POSSIBLE DISTRIBUTION OF OPEC PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY IN 1985 COMPARED WITH 1980-1981 ACTUALS (MILLION BARRELS PER DAY) ACTUAL 1981 1982 1985 ACTUAL 1980 MIDDLE EAST SAUDI ARABIA 9.7 9,6 6,3 4,9 KUWAIT 1,4 0,9 0.7 1,0 NEUTRAL ZONE 0.5 0,4 0,2 0,3 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1.7 1.5 1,2 1,3 QATAR 0.5 0.4 0,3 0,3 IRAQ 2.6 0,9 0,9 1.5 1,3 2,0 IRAN 15.1 17,9 11,7 12,9 AFRICA LIBYA 1,8 1.1 1,1 1,3 ALGERIA 0.9 0,8 0,7 0,7 NIGERIA 2.1 1.4 1,3 1,5 0,2 0,2 0.2 GABON 0.2 5.0 3,5 3.3 3,7 OTHER VENEZUELA 2,2 2,1 1.9 1,8 INDONESIA 1,6 1,6 1,3 1,4 ECUADOR 0,2 0,2 0.2 0.2 4,0 3.9 3,4 3,4 TOTAL CRUDE 26,8 22,5 18.4 20,0 NGL PRODUCTION 0,8 1,0 0,9 1.4 27,6 23,5 19,4 23.7

OPEC SHARE OF WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND % DEMAND OPEC PRODUCTION 1982 . 19.4 42,7 23.5 1 9 8 1 50.0 1980 27.3 55.2 1979 31,4 60.4 OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY i MAXIMUM CURRENT SUSTAINABLE AVAILABLE CEILING TOTAL 34,740 23,670 17,500 ALGERIA 900 900 725 ECUADOR 225 225 200 GABON 150 150 150 INDONESIA 1 , 6 5 0 1 , 6 5 0 1 , 3 0 0 IRAN 5,500 3,200 2 , 4 0 0 IRAQ 3,500 900 1,200 KUWAIT 2 , 5 0 0 1 , 2 5 0 1 , 0 5 0 LIBYA 2,100 1 , 7 5 0 1,100 « N.Z, 600 600 NIGERIA 2 , 2 0 0 2 , 2 0 0 1,300 QATAR 600 600 300 SAUDI ARABIA 1 0 , 0 0 0 7 , 0 0 0 5 , 0 0 0 U.A.E, 2,415 1,245 1 , 1 0 0 VENEZUELA 2,400 2,200 1,675 IN SAUDI ARABIA & KUWAIT *N.7. INCLUDED

GROWTH IN U.S. ENERGY DEMAND BY END-USE SECTOR (PERCENT PER YEAR GROWTH) 1965/1973 1973/1978 1978/1980 1 SECTOR RESIDENTIAL/ / COMMERCIAL 0,4 3,6 -2,4 1,0 0,3 INDUSTRIAL 3,0 -1,2 -2,1 -0,7 1,3 TRANSPORTATION 2,0 -2.9 ION 5,1 -0,4 -0.7 NET ENERGY Y 3,8 0,3 -2,4 0.6 ELECTRICITY 7,5 3.2 2.3 1,3 2.3 :NERGY 4,3 0,8 -1,1 0,3 1,0 REAL GNP 3,9 2,5 1,5 2,3 2,8 ENERGY/GNP RATIOS NET/GNP 1,0 0.1 0,2 1,1 PRIMARY/GNP 0.3 0,2 0.4

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER DOLLAR OF GNP 1973-1990 __ ENERGY CONSUMPTION GNP ENER6Y/6NP (QUADRILLION BTU's) (BILLION 1972 $'s) (000 BTU's PER $) 1973 " 74,6 1,254 59.4 1979 78.9 1,479 53,2 1981 74,0 1,503 49,2 1985 74.8 1,645 45,5 1990 78,6 1,887 41,7

U.S. ENERGY DEMAND (MILLION B/D OIL EQUIVALENT) 1973 1979 1981 1985 1990 17,3 18,5 16,1 15,9 15,6 OIL 9,8 8,9 9,0 11,2 10,3 GAS 8,0 8,6 9,8 6,6 7.5 COAL 2,2 3,0 0,5 1,3 NUCLEAR 1,6 1,6 1,8 1,9 1,5 OTHER 37,1 39.2 36,9 37.4 39,3

U.S. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DEMAND. 1978-1990 LLION BARRELS DAILY) (Mi 1978 1980 1985 1990 1981 7,41 6,58 6,59 6,17 5,49 OLINE E FUEL OIL 3,44 2,86 2,83 2,97 3,17 FUEL OIL 3,02 2,49 2,09 1,97 1,80 FUELS 1,10 1,10 1,04 1,08 1,14 OTHER 3,88 3,98 3,52 3,74 4.04 TOTAL 18,85 17,01 16,06 15,93 15,64 AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE ( % PER YEAR) 1965/1973 1973/1978 1978/1980 1981/1985 1985/1990 MOTOR GASOLINE 2,1 4,5 -5,8 -1.6 -2.3 DISTILLATES 4,8 2,2 -8,8 1.2 1,3 RESIDUAL FUEL OIL 7,6 1,4 -9.2 -1.4 -1,8 - AVIATION FUELS 7,4 -0,2 1.1 1,1 OTHER 4,9 1,5 1,3 1,4 1.6 TOTAL 5,2 1,7 -5.0 -0.2 -0.4 NOTE: DATA AFTER 1980 ARE NOT DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH EARLIER DATA. ALSO, SUMS OF THE PARTS MAY NOT EQUAL TOTAL DUE TO ROUNDING. SOURCE: U.S. DOE; PROJECTIONS ARE THOSE OF PIRA,

MOTOR GASOLINE DEMAND PARAMETERS. 1981-1990 1982 1985 1990 PASSENGER CARS IN USE A) (MM) 108 ' 112 118 MILES DRIVE (Bit,) 1,115 1,200 1,325 PASSENGER CAR FUEL EFFICIENCY^ (MPG) 15,6 18,2 23,0 PASSENGER CAR FUEL USE (MMB/D) 4.64 4.33 3.77 OF WHICH: MOTOR GASOLINE 4,57 4,22 3,55 DIESEL FUEL 0,07 0,11 0.22 TOTAL MOTOR GASOLINE USE (MMB/D) PASSENGER CARS 4,57 . 4,22 3,55 OTHER VEHICLES 1.97 1.91 1.84 6,54 6,13 5.39 A) INCLUDES 800,000 DIESEL CARS IN USE IN 1981, 3 MILLION IN 1985, AND 7 MILLION IN 1990, B) ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST TENTH OF A PERCENTAGE POINT, SOURCE: PIRA

PIRA DISTILLATE FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION BY END-USE SECTOR. 1978. 1981 AND PROJECTIONS TO 1990 (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY) 1978 1981 1985 1990 RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL 1 , 4 6 1 756 712 633 INDUSTRIAL(I) 542 655 653 645 ELECTRIC UTILITY 200 50 70 92 TRANSPORTATION^) 1.229 1,368 1,535 1,800 TOTAL 3,432 2,829 2,970 3,170 (1) INCLUDES REFINERY FUEL, OFF-HIGHWAY DIESEL, OIL COMPANY AND MISCELLANEOUS CONSUMPTION OF DISTILLATE OIL, EXCLUDES PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK CONSUMPTION OF GAS OIL, (2) INCLUDES MILITARY, VESSEL BUNKERING, RAILROAD AND ON-HIGHWAY DIESEL CONSUMPTION, DISTILLATE DEMAND BY PAD REGION (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY) PAD 1978 1981 1985 1990 I 1 , 3 8 9 1,059 1 , 0 6 2 1 , 0 4 4 II 1 , 0 9 2 805 804 845 III 475 508 673 677 IV-V 477 457 531 604 TOTAL 3,432 2,829 2,970 3,170

RESIDUAL FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION BY END-USE AND PROJECTIONS TO 1990 (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY) 1978 1981 1985 1990 INDUSTRIAL 622 476 580 520 1,461 892 657 621 ELECTRIC UTILITY OTHER 3,023 2,088 1,972 1,805 TOTAL

TOTAL OECD ENERGY AND OIL INTENSITIES ANNUAL ANNUAL % CHANGE % CHANGE TE/GDP OIL/GDP 100,00 100,0 1973 -3.1 -0,6 96,9 99, 4 1974 -2,7 -3,5 93,5 1975 95,7 2,2 97,3 0,6 95,5 1976 95,6 -1,8 94,2 -1.3 1977 -0.8 93,2 1978 94,8 -1,1 93,8 -1,2 89,8 -3,7 1979 90,0 -4,0 82.0 -8,6 1980 -3.6 86,8 75,3 -8,1 1981 84.4 -2,8 71,5 -5,0 1982 SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA),

U.S. REFINER ACQUISITION COST OF CRUDE OIL $/BBL 1ST Q 2ND Q 3RD Q 4TH Q 1981 36,54 35.91 34.42 34.24 1982 33.05 31.20 31.53 31.78 1983 29.61