Welcome Peter Nash & Todd Bond CZM Pty Ltd
The Project To undertake a climate change risk assessment and develop an adaptation plan for the Shire of Murchison
The Study Area
The Shire of Murchison • pastoral industry is the dominant land use and employer • 26 stations, 2 of these destocked and managed by DEC • no other industry • no “town”
The Project • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded by Federal Government
The Project • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded by Federal Government • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison)
The Project • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded by Federal Government • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison) • Pastoral industry is dominant employer and land use in Shire of Murchison, hence it became the focus of Project
The Project • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded by Federal Government • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison) • Pastoral industry is dominant employer and land use in Shire of Murchison, hence it became the focus of Project • LAPP is a prescribed risk assessment and adaptation planning process
Modeling Climate Change To be able to model climate change, we must predict how the world will look in the future
Modeling Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change � (IPCC) uses 40 different scenarios to model climate change
Modeling Climate Change The IPCC uses 40 different scenarios to model climate � change Each scenario considers different future demographic, � economic and technological factors likely to influence future emissions
Modeling Climate Change The IPCC uses 40 different scenarios to model climate � change Each scenario considers different future demographic, � economic and technological factors likely to influence future emissions This case study utilised the A1FI scenario for 2070 � (50 th percentile)
The A1FI Scenario The A1 Scenarios describe a future world of � - very rapid economic growth - a global population that peaks around 2050 and declines thereafter - and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
The A1FI Scenario The letters following the A1 indicate the level of � technological emphasis. FI means Fossil Intensive - a world that primarily uses oil, gas and coal to produce energy.
The A1FI Scenario • A1FI is most pessimistic scenario and is considered to be the upper limit of climate change impacts
The A1FI Scenario • A1FI is most pessimistic scenario and is considered to be the upper limit of climate change impacts BUT global climate parameters are currently tracking in line with A1FI projections
Timeframe • All climate change projections in the case study are for 2070
Timeframe • All climate change projections in the case study are for 2070 • Projected changes in climate parameters (rainfall, temp, extreme events etc.) are relative to a 1990 baseline.
A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall Projections for Temperature & Rainfall
A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall Annual and seasonal projected temperature and rainfall change by 2070 for the scenario A1FI (high emissions) using the 50th percentile. Source CSIRO (2007).
A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall • The CSIRO has refined (downscaled) projections for all Australian capital cities and some regional centres • In WA, Perth is the only place we have downscaled data for.
For Murchison? Variable Season Perth Darwin Alice Murchison Springs Temperature ( � C) Annual +2.7 +3.2 +3.7 (+) 3 – 4 Summer +2.9 +3.2 +3.8 (+) 3 – 4 Autumn +2.7 +3.3 +3.6 (+) 3 – 4 Winter +2.3 +3.2 +3.3 (+) 3 – 4 Spring +2.9 +3.3 +4.1 (+) 3 – 4 No. of days above 35 � C Annual 53.8 226.8 155.1 Increase ( currently ( currently ( currently ( currently 28.1 ) 10.8 ) 89.6 ) 105.7 ) Rainfall (%) Annual -19 -1 -17 (-) 10-20 Summer -12 +1 -11 (-) 10-20 Autumn -12 0 -12 (-) 5-10 Winter -22 -13 -25 (-) 20-40 Spring -27 -15 -26 (-) 20-40 Climate change projections for Murchison and the nearest locations for which downscaled CSIRO data is available (A1FI, 2070, 50 th percentile). Source CSIRO (2007) & BoM (2009).
For Murchison? Murchison Projected, Variable Season Murchison Current 2070 (average) (average, rounded to nearest whole number) Temperature ( � C) Annual 30.1 ~ 33 - 34 (daily maximum) Summer 38.1 ~ 41 - 42 Autumn 30.5 ~ 33 - 34 Winter 21.6 ~ 25 - 26 Spring 30.2 ~ 33 - 34 Rainfall (mm) Annual 244.7 196 - 220 Summer 70.2 57 – 63 Autumn 81.9 66 - 74 Winter 76.3 46 - 61 Spring 18.6 12 - 15 Current average temperature and rainfall for Murchison compared to that projected for Murchison in 2070 (A1FI, 50th percentile). Source CSIRO (2007) & BoM (2009).
Moving Murchison Is there anywhere in the WA rangelands now that is similar to Murchison in 2070?
For Murchison? Monthly rainfall average of locations with a similar annual rainfall to that projected for 2070 under the A1FI scenario (50%) for the Shire of Murchison
A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather Projections for Extreme weather
A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather Cyclones: • may be more frequent • a higher proportion will more severe • will be born further south and may dissipate further south
A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather Rainfall intensity: • rainfall events will be less frequent but of higher intensity
Observed Climate Change in Australia Observed Climate Change
Observed Climate Change in Australia Since 1960, the following changes have been recorded: • mean temp increased by 0.7 0 C (Murchison is rising by 0.1-0.15 0 C/ decade)
Observed Climate Change in Australia Since 1960, the following changes have been recorded: • mean temp increased by 0.7 0 C (Murchison has risen by 0.1-0.15 0 C/ decade) • rainfall is declining in SW & SE Australia (Murchison has declined by ~5mm/ decade)
Observed Climate Change in Australia Possible Impacts of Climate Change in the Rangelands
Possible Impacts of Climate Change Changes in flora and fauna communities:
Possible Impacts of Climate Change Changes in flora and fauna communities: • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species
Possible Impacts of Climate Change Changes in flora and fauna communities: • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of important grazing species
Possible Impacts of Climate Change Changes in flora and fauna communities: • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of important grazing species • possible increase in pest species (flora and fauna)
Possible Impacts of Climate Change Changes in flora and fauna communities: • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of important grazing species • possible increase in pest species (flora and fauna) • feed production from important grazing species likely to decline
More On Biodiversity Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:
More On Biodiversity Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries: Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia , freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002)
More On Biodiversity Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries: Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia , freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002) Some plant species (e.g. members of the Dryandra genus) are limited to very specific soil types and bio-climactic modelling suggests that a global temperature rise of as little as 1 0 C could seriously threaten these species (NRMMC, 2004).
More On Biodiversity Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries: Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia , freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002) Some plant species (e.g. members of the Dryandra genus) are limited to very specific soil types and bio-climactic modelling suggests that a global temperature rise of as little as 1 0 C could seriously threaten these species (NRMMC, 2004). Many species of Western Australian frogs, mammals and plants could become restricted to small areas, or could disappear altogether, with a warming of only 0.5 � C (NRMMC, 2004).
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