Perspectives économiques, risques géopolitiques et tendances de marché Sylvain BARTHELEMY Directeur Général AFTE Bretagne-Normandie Rennes, octobre 2018
Qui sommes-nous ? Experts en économie et en finance, accompagnant les entreprises dans leurs stratégies à l’international. Outils d’aide à la décision à partir d’intelligence artificielle. Une société rennaise qui existe depuis 25 ans. 2
Pourquoi suivre le risque pays ? Perte Risque de Perte de Valeur Risque Tensions Compétitivit Actif & CA Réglementai Sociales é € re TAUX DE CHANGE ACTIVITE RISQUE Nouvelle Baisse des Concurrence PAYS Ventes PAIEMENTS Réglementat Risque ion Client Transfert Devises 3
Une période plus calme depuis 2017… … mais des chocs économiques tout de même ! CHANGE En 2018: Argentine -54% Turquie -37% Brésil -19% Russie -12% ACTIVITE En 2017: Moyenne croissance du Egypte -44% PIB des marchés Ouzbékistan -43% émergents proche de 4.5 Congo-Kinshasa -31% INFLATION Venezuela (-13.2%), En moyenne Congo-Brazzaville (-4.6%), proche de 3% Kuwait (- 2.5%)… et la Chine fait presque 7%, Argentine 26%, contre 14% en 2007 ! Nigéria 17%, Iran 10%, Turquie 18%, Ukraine 14% Congo-Kinshasa 42% Libye 28%, Egypte 24% Venezuela >1000% 4
Global Economic & Financial Outlook Présentation AFTE
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook 1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions US GDP growth Y/Y, in % Source: Datastream, TAC ECONOMICS 6
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook 1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions Contributions to US GDP growth (q/q annualized) 7
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook Schiller PE Index 8
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook 1- Timing the US cycle: market risks Size of US Corporate Bond Spread changes Size of S&P500 changes during US during US recessions (bp) recessions (%) Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 9
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook 1- Timing the US cycle: financial / real interactions August 2018 Entry into recession after a rapid slowdown 2 more hikes in Fed Fund rates in 2018 and reduction 2019Q4 or 2020H1? Monetary in Fed’s balance sheet Economic policy cycle reversal normalization Tighter financial Impact on conditions, demand and deteriorating confidence Dec. 2018 corp.balance sheets Negative Uncertain impact of profit growth Erase impact one-off cash and excess of fiscal repatriation by US corp. Sharp reversal in US equity valuation reforms on markets around mid-2019 lead to equity net profits 10y Treasury yield moving (potentially around -35%) reversal above 3.5% during 2019H1 and widening corporate spreads 2019Q2 or Q3? 10
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook US rising short- and long-term rates US Monetary Policy Reaction Function US 10-year bond yield model Source: TAC ECONOMICS, BEA, Datastream 11
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook Euro Zone Eurozone real GDP growth convergence (% y/y) Sources: Datastream, TAC ECONOMICS 12
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook Eurozone: resilience giving way to over-stretch and dependence Eurozone wages and consumption Eurozone capacity utilization Rate (%) Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 13
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook Eurozone: resilience giving way to over-stretch and dependence Eurozone Economic Climate Tracer 14
2018 Global Economic & Financial outlook Euro Zone Real GDP growth projections Average 2014-2016 vs 2017-2019 Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO 15
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Présentation AFTE
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Trade tensions: tariff issue or strategic confrontation? Growth in external trade improved since 2016, but global sentiment on trade has degraded, with growing actions on trade protectionism and expanding fear of “trade war”, a vicious circle of retaliatory measures with substantial impact on global trade flows. Special case for China. ST impact to remain low on volumes of trade, higher on inflation (+0.5 pp for headline US inflation), with strong resistance to trade restrictions. Risks are higher for 2019 when cyclical dynamics revert. Plausible estimates on global output range from large-but-manageable 0.5 to 1 pp subtraction to more systemic shock (above 3 pp) if and when other restrictive measures are applied in a more geo-economics / geopolitical rivalry context. In this background, regional trade integration is more likely to find its way, notwithstanding the current tensions within Nafta and other regional groupings. 17
Trade War: what are we talking about? A broader LT view: unavoidable slowdown in international trade dynamics LT trend in international trade: towards a plateau world export as % of world GDP since 1820 18
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Methodology Economic & Financial risks defined by 3 macro risks : currency risk, cross- border payment risk, and cyclical / activity risk, on 3 different time- horizons (<1 year, 1-3 years, 3-5 years) 2 measures for Economic & Financial risks: Economic & Financial Risk Ratings combine the information provided by 6 Fundamental Balances, with non-linear relations; measured on a continuous scale (0- 100 and A to D) and assess risks in “normal” circumstances Crisis Signals, provided by non-parametric / data-mining tools, assess the likelihood of systemic breaks and major crises Political Risk measured with Political Risk Ratings based on World Bank KKZ indicators, including broad governance indicators Risk-Related Cost of Capital (RRECC) through econometric modelling and including smoothed market price measures 19
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Methodology Country Groups Economic Risk Political Risk Growth Balance KKZ Methodology Three groups Real GDP, current account,… Voice & Accountability Major arbitrage markets Debt Balance Political Stability Commodity exporters External debt, FDI Regulatory Quality High number of past Liquidity Balance restructuring Short-Term debt, rfx level Government Effectiveness Exchange Rate Balance Currency valuation, rfx dynamic Rule of Law Cyclical Balance Control of Corruption Business cycle, monetary policy Banking System Balance Domestic credit, fx.refinancing 20 20 20
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Methodology Country Groups Economic Risk Political Risk Statistical Data Mining Calibration on Statistical 5 non-parametric combinations & Normalization models threshold effects Economic Risk Crisis Political Risk Group Ratings Signals Ratings Premium Country Risk Premium (RRECC), calibrated on JP Morgan’s EMBI 21 21 21
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs: risk materialization Economic & Financial Risk Rating Economic & Financial Risk Rating from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) Average for 100 EM countries By Country’s Size 22
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs China: plausible scenarios Where is GDP growth heading? Plausible scenarios based on TAC ECONOMICS set of recursive-Partitioning Models Source: TAC ECONOMICS 23
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Most vulnerable countries hit first: “dual deficit” Public Balance and Current Account Balance (2017, % of GDP) Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO 24
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks Exchange rate against USD average for 10KeyEM Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 25
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks Nominal Exchange rate against USD changes since Jan. 1, 2018 As of Sep. 28, 2018 Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 26
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Vulnerabilities + political issues + US tightening = speculative attacks Emerging Markets Inflation Average for 10 Key EM Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 27
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Monetary tightening under way in large EM Emerging Markets Policy Rate average for 10 countries weighted and not-weighted by GDP Source: TAC ECONOMICS, Datastream 28
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs 29
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Une croissance plus rapide des « émergents » Croissance du PIB (%) +3% à +4% Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO 30
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs GDP Growth Outlook Gross Domestic Product Growth Outlook (%) Source: TAC ECONOMICS, IMF/WEO 31
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Les pays à forte croissance économique Top 10 – Croissance du PIB Moyenne 2018-2019 (%) Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO 32
Vulnerabilities and risks in EMDEs Potentiel à 2025 de quelques « gros émergents » Investissement et Population en Age de Travailler Source : TAC ECONOMICS, FMI/WEO, Nations Unies 33
Merci de votre attention 34
For more information, please contact Morgane Lohézic Head of Development & Communication morgane.lohezic@taceconomics.com Béatrice Guillemot Business Development & Communication beatrice.guillemot@taceconomics.com or call TAC ECONOMICS at +33 2 99 39 31 40
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