Permian Basin Regional Freight and Energy Sector Transportation Plan Stakeholder Forums, Round 2 Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 June 2020
Meeting Overview MEETI TING G Gather insight, input and feedback directly from the users of the PURPOS RPOSE system on identifying strategies and recommendations for addressing the freight network infrastructure operations, issues and challenges Why Are We Here? Agenda Key Findings to Date Addressing Freight Transportation Needs Schedule and Next Steps Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 3
Plan Development Approach - WE ARE COLLECT DATA, ANALYZE FREIGHT HERE REVIEW MATERIALS, SYSTEM - COMPLETED IDENTIFY BEST CONDITIONS AND PRACTICES PERFORMANCE STAKEHOLDER STAKEHOLDER ASSESS CURRENT WORKSHOPS WORKSHOPS AND FUTURE NEEDS (ROUND 1) AND (ROUND 2) AND INTERVIEWS OUTREACH REGIONAL FREIGHT DEVELOP FREIGHT DEVELOP FREIGHT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS STRATEGIES Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020
Forum Overview Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020
Round 2- Series of Five Meetings 1 Ener ergy Sec ector P Per erspective 2 Sand Per erspective e e e 3 Car arriers and and H Hau aulers Perspective 4 Rural C Community ty Perspec pecti tive e 5 Urban A Area ea P Per erspe pective Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 6
How Will Input Be Used Summer mmer 2019 M Meet etings gs Today’ y’s M Meeting Regional nal Need eeds Freig ight Strategie ies & & Recommend ndat atio ions ns Assessment Netwo work Input on mobility, Identified roadways Input on short, medium, and long-term safety, truck to be included on infrastructure, policies, programs and parking and other network operational recommendations needs Finalized Permian Input on prioritization criteria Refined freight Basin Highway transportation Develop prioritized recommendations for the Freight Network needs assessment final plan Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 7
Key Findings to Date Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020
Key Findings to Date Commo mmodit dity San Sand an and d Needs Flows Wat ater F Flows ws Assessment Overview of Estimates of System base year and truck trips conditions and forecasts generated from performance sand and water Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 9
Key Data in Commodity Flow Analysis IHS Markit TRANSEARCH – 2015 base year projected out to 2018 – 2045 forecast year projected out to 2050 Modeled based on US Census Commodity Flow data, private bill of lading data, and economic modeling Includes tonnage and value Supplemented with water and sand estimates – Enverus – MOTRAN – Stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 10
Overview of Total Commodity Flows in the Permian Basin Total Tonnage and Value 1800 18 00 1, 1,62 627.1 16 1600 00 1400 14 00 20 2018 18 2050 20 50 1200 12 00 1, 1,076. 6.9 51% 51 100% 00% 1000 10 00 incre rease i in incre rease i in tonna nage value 800 00 600 00 400 00 200 00 76 76.9 38. 38.3 0 Millio Mi ions To Tons Billi llion ons $ $ Source: CS analysis based on Transearch, Enverus and stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 11
Overview of Commodity Flows by Mode in Permian Basin Total Tonnage by Mode, 2018 Total Tonnage by Mode, 2050 <1% 7% <1% <1% <1% 7% Truck Truck <1% <1% Rail Rail Air Air Pipeline Pipeline Mixed Modes Mixed Modes 92% 92% Total Value by Mode, 2018 Total Value by Mode, 2050 <1% <1% 30% Truck Truck 23% Rail Rail 2% Air Air 2% Pipeline Pipeline 10% Mixed Modes 61% 64% Mixed Modes 7% Source: CS analysis based on Transearch, Enverus and stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 12
Permian Basin Top Commodities by Value Top Commodities by Value, 2018 and 2050 Crude Oil Machinery Exc Electrical Chemicals/Alllied Non-metalic Minerals Petroleum/Coal Valu lue of of fre freight d dri riven b by Secondary Moves great ater c commodit dity m mix for 2050 ene nergy a and nd no non-energy Electrical Mach/Equip/Supp sector 2018 Farm Fabricated Metal Transportation Equipment Other 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Billion Dollars Source: CS analysis based on Transearch, Enverus and stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 13
Permian Basin Top Commodities by Tonnage Top Commodities by Tonnage, 2018 and 2050 Brine Water 642 million tons or 154 billion barrels Fresh Water 243 million tons or 58 billion barrels Crude Oil Non-metalic Minerals Sand 36.8 million tons Volu olume of of fre freight Petroleum/Coal 2050 domin inat ated b d by low v value Clay/Concrete/Glass/Stone bulk c commodit ditie ies u used i in 2018 energ rgy s sector Waste/Scrap Materials Farm Chemicals/Alllied Other 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 Million Tons Source: CS analysis based on Transearch, Enverus and stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 14
Commodity Flows: Estimating Sand and Water Flows Estimate Total S al Sand C Consumed (Attrac acted) b by County Total sand and fresh water Estimate Total S al Sand a and W Water M Moves b by County consumed and produced water in 2018 is estimated from the Enverus data on total Distribu bute P Prod oductions t to County-level production is proppant for each well Attractions at at the C e County L Level proportional to the total annual operating capacity of mines Estimate is 36.8 million tons located in the county Total tonnage is distributed using a of sand in 2018 gravity model derived from the Total annual operating capacity is Estimate is 243 tons of fresh Statewide Analysis Model version 4 estimated to be 62.9 million tons water and 642 tons of - Winkler County is estimated to produced water County-to-county flows are contain about 73% of capacity balanced using iterative proportional fitting Water generation and disposal is based on location of wells and deposal sites and assumptions on mode Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 15
Estimating Sand and Water Truck Trips Assumes 23 tons per truck for sand, 21 tons per truck for fresh and produced water and one empty trip for every loaded 90 percent fres esh water transported by pipeline, 10% by truck 60 percent produ duced w d water er transported by pipeline, 40% by truck Annual T al Total T al Truck T Trips Annual L al Load aded Truck T Trips (Loaded + + Empty ty) Commo mmodity (thousands) s) (thousands) s) Avg. g. D Daily Truc uck T Trips ps Sand 1,600 3,200 8,770 Fresh W Water 1,540 3,080 8,440 Produced W Water er 16,320 32,640 89,415 To Total 19,460 38,920 106,625 Source: Enverus Drillinginfo Database, 2020; FracFocus Database, 2020; New Mexico Energy, Minerals, and Natural Resources Department: Oil Conservation Division, County Production and Injection Summary by Month for Eddy and Lea Counties, 2020; Texas Water Development Board, Groundwater Database, 2020; Texas Water Development Board, Submitted Drillers Report Database, 2020; New Mexico Office of the State Engineer, Points of Diversion Geospatial File, 2020; Texas Railroad Commission, H-10 Reports, 2020; Cambridge Systematics, Inc. analysis. Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 16
Needs Assessment Criteria Congestion MOBIL ILIT ITY A AND Truck travel time reliability RELIABIL ILIT ITY Overlay f y fac actors on Freight bottlenecks Frei eight S System em Truck involved crashes Designation score SAFETY SA Lane conditions Rest areas and truck parking Comb mbined ed score e of Pavement conditions factors and relat ative FREIGHT A T ASSET T UTILIZ IZATIO ION A AND Bridge load restrictions and conditions freig ight importance to PRES ESER ERVATION Vertical bridge clearance get et h high, medi dium, m, and low n needs eds score Frontage roads RU RURAL RO ROADS Number of Lanes Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 21
Mobility and Congestion Needs Urban areas, especially I-20 between Midland and Odessa Rural areas, especially: – U.S. 285 in Reeves County – U.S. 87 in Howard County – U.S. 385 south of Odessa – FM 652 from 62 into New Mexico Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 22
Safety Needs I-10 and I-20 and throughout the PB US Highways – 285 and 385 State Highways – 128, 158, 285 and 302 652 FM 652 Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 23
Rural Highway Improvement Needs Frontage Roads – No frontage roads – Two-way frontage road Two-lane roads – Tier 1 PBHFN – Tier 2 PBHFN Stakeholder input Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 24
Needs: Truck Parking Trucks Par Parked o on Sh Shoulders/Ram amps, p per m mil ile Trucks P Park rked, p per s r square m mile Priori ority of of Need, p per rou route 2020 Statewide Truck Parking Study available at: https://www.dot.state.tx.us/move-texas- freight/studies/ Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) truck GPS data Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020 25
Developing Strategies and Recommendations Permian Basin Stakeholder Forums June 2020
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