Peel Valley Works and Drought Update March 2020 Dungowan and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Peel Valley Works and Drought Update March 2020 Dungowan and Tamworth Adrian Langdon Meredith Abrams Executive Manager, Community Engagement Officer System Operations Andrew Scott David Hogan Operations Manager Head of Engagement and Communications Nathaniel Selladurai Carl Butcher Peel Valley Pipeline Project manager Project Manager –Drought Projects

Overview Introduction from Tamworth Regional Council • Overview • Latest drought outlook • What has happened since we were here • - Key actions - Progress on emergency drought works - Next steps New pipeline from Chaffey to Dungowan • - Pipeline progress update - Expected Completion - What happens next Water carting – for domestic needs • How to keep updated • Next steps • Questions • 2

Peel / Namoi system 3

Drought Outlook 4

36 month rainfall deficiency to the end of January 2020 5

12 Month Temperatures 6

12 Month Temperatures 7

Soil moisture deficiencies April 2018 - December 2019 8

February Rainfall 9

Rainfall – February 2020 10

NSW temperatures 12

Soil moisture deficiencies February 2020 13

Drought of Record – 24 Months Valley Previous Drought of Period Last 24 months Record Inflows Inflows (GL) (GL) Glen Lyon 7 1992-94 33 Pindari 45 1918-20 25 Copeton 53 1918-20 107 Keepit 57 2001-03 25 Split Rock 8 1956-58 7 Chaffey 13 1964-66 6 Burrendong 246 1937-39 107 Hunter 68 1939-41 24 14

Drought of Record – 36 Months Valley Previous Drought Current Current Drought of Period Drought Drought Record Inflows Inflows Period (GL) Months (Yrs) (GL) (GL) Glen Lyon 44 1992-95 32 32 Pindari 142 1992-95 82 31 Copeton 218 1992-95 209 31 Keepit 157 1992-95 100 36 Split Rock 22 1925-28 21 36 Chaffey 26 1964-67 19 36 Burrendong 581 1944-47 186 36 Hunter 129 1939-42 49 36 15

Rain has been great but ……long way to go right across NSW ! As at end of Feb 2020

Drought Stages August 2019 Stage 3 October 2019 Stage 4 March 2020 (still here) 17

State drought policy – updated 18

The latest data INFLOWS and RELEASES 19

Peel system inflows 300 250 200 Inflow (GL) 150 100 50 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Chaffey Dam inflow D/s Tribs Chaffey Dam inflow (avg) D/s Tribs(avg) 20

Peel Valley Inflow and Storage Volume 600 100000 500 80000 1 st of Jan 2017, Inflow and demand (ML/d) Year-17-18, irregular 400 dam volume was inflow upstream, Storage Volume (ML) 102 GL which was not enough to meet 60000 even Tamworth’s If there was no dam, water min demand supply issues would have 300 occurred from early 2017 40000 200 20000 100 Tamworth From 1 st of Jan 18 council min onwards, almost demand: 20 no inflow till March ML/d 20 0 0 1/1/2016 0:00 7/19/2016 0:00 2/4/2017 0:00 8/23/2017 0:00 3/11/2018 0:00 9/27/2018 0:00 4/15/2019 0:00 11/1/2019 0:00 419081 - PEEL RIVER AT TAROONA (U/S Tamworth) ML/d Tamworth daily demand (min) ML/d Storage Volume (ML)

Chaffey Dam Inflows Inflow (GL) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -5 0 5 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 (GL) Mean Monthly Inflow (GL) Actual Monthly Inflow Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 22

Where the Water Went May 2019 WaterNSW Namoi Valley Water Ops Report 23

Peel End of System Flows 2017 to 2020

End of System Flows 25

Chaffey to Tamworth Peel River gains and losses since 2001

Groundwater Depth (m) Groundwater table -11.5 -10.5 -9.5 -8.5 -11 -10 -9 -8 1/07/2010 1/10/2010 1/01/2011 1/04/2011 1/07/2011 1/10/2011 1/01/2012 1/04/2012 1/07/2012 1/10/2012 1/01/2013 1/04/2013 1/07/2013 1/10/2013 1/01/2014 1/04/2014 1/07/2014 1/10/2014 1/01/2015 1/04/2015 1/07/2015 1/10/2015 1/01/2016 1/04/2016 1/07/2016 1/10/2016 1/01/2017 1/04/2017 1/07/2017 1/10/2017 1/01/2018 1/04/2018 1/07/2018 1/10/2018 1/01/2019 27 1/04/2019

Climate Outlook

Drought forecast summary While there has been good rain – over 90% of the State is • still drought declared Recent rain events have been predominately below most • regional storage catchments. Outlook from BOM was for drier than average conditions • and above average temperatures. However latest forecast suggest some normalisation of weather and forecasts of average temps and rainfall. Three weeks of good rainfalls doesn’t break a “worst on • record” 3 year drought. Soil Moisture deficits have improved. • 30 Water NSW

So what does all this mean for Chaffey Dam storage levels, water for critical human needs and Peel River flows? 31

Peel Valley storage forecast Peel Valley forecast storage volume 40 July 2019 35 Nil access to GS & ECA 0.682 GL/month TWS & Storage capacity (GL) 30 HS demand Early June 21 25 Cease to Flow 20 Apr 21 15 Deep storage access 10 5 0 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Dead Storage Zero Inflow Actual 33

Storage forecast Chaffey Dam - forecast storage volume (chance of exceedance) 100 80 Storage capacity (GL) 60 40 20 34 0 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE No Inflow actual

Temporary weir and new permanent pipeline Carl Butcher – Manager Major Projects

PEEL RIVER DROUGHT WORKS Stage 1 Temporary Weir Stage 2 Permanent Pipeline 36

Project Update Key Facts This project will ensure Tamworth does not run out of water • based on current low inflow patterns Even under zero inflow patterns – will ensure we extend water • for critical human needs from months to well into next year Give confidence and certainty as far as practical in current • drought conditions. Had this project not been funded by the NSW Government • and delivered by WaterNSW, Tamworth could have been in a very serious situation within months. We have avoided that situation • 37

Project Update Key Facts More than 17.5kms of a new permanent pipeline has been laid – • 90% complete Project has injected more than $1.3 million into the community, • engaged 30 local businesses and recruited a workforce comprising one-third of local workers including tradesmen, truck drivers, fencers and heavy machine operators. The temporary weir, pipeline and pumps have been operational • since December 2019 WaterNSW is working closely with Tamworth Regional Council, • Department Planning, Infrastructure and Environment (Water), Department of Primary Industries (Fisheries). 38

Stage 1 Temporary Weir Construction

Stage 1 Temporary Weir Construction

Temporary Pumpstation

PEEL RIVER DROUGHT WORKS STAGE 2 New permanent pipeline

Stage 2 – Permanent pipeline Stage 2 – Construction of a permanent pipeline 18.2 km permanent pipeline from Chaffey Dam to • Dungowan Town (and connecting to the existing pipeline owned by TRC.) The majority of the route is along existing road easements • and land within the Chaffey Dam property boundary. Community consultation with neighbouring landholders. • Pipeline was sized to meet Tamworth’s future growth. •

Stage 2 – Pipeline Route DPL Connection Point Chaffey Dam

Stage 2 – Pipeline Construction

Stage 2 – Pipeline Construction

Stage 2 – Pipeline Construction

Stage 2 – Pipeline Construction

Key Challenge - Time Traditional timeline for a project such as this Total Project Delivery Time = 2 to 2.5 Years Initiation – 3 months Business case and financial approvals Resource allocation – 3 CRITICAL PATH ACTIVITIES months Stakeholder Coordination, Design and Funding and Approvals – 3 Scope Development – 6 Months Months Planning and Environmental Approvals – 9 Months Route Selection, Land Identification and Acquisition – 12 Months Procurement – 3 Detailed Design – 3 Tender – 3 Months Months Months - Planning and approvals Construction – 6-9 Months - Route selection Market - Acquiring land and access Engagement Commission – 1-2 Months Execution phase Project Close – 1-2 Months