Path Dependency and Climate Change - A New Action Model A Path - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Path Dependency and Climate Change - A New Action Model A Path Dependency Approach - On Climate Change, Social Stress, and Violent Conflict By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

On Climate Change, Social Stress, and Violent Conflict (1) • How does climate change influence society? • Do actors or groups of actors react in social stress or even violent conflict? • And how can it be predicted, prevented or what intervention strategies can be used during occurrence? By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

On Climate Change, Social Stress, and Violent Conflict (2): On Agents • How are agents affected • How does climate change influence society? by climate change? • Do actors or groups of • How do agents make their action decisions actors react in social stress or even violent when affected by climate conflict? change? • And how can it be • How can a problem- predicted, prevented or solving process look like what intervention for successfully strategies can be used addressing problems of during occurrence? climate change? By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

A Problem-Solving Process Problem-Solving Process: Situational Modelling Situational Analysis Intervention and Evolving and Interpretation Executing Strategies Strategies By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

A Problem-Solving Process s t n e g A e r a t n e s e Problem-Solving Process: r p Situational Modelling Situational Analysis Intervention and Evolving and Interpretation Executing Strategies Strategies s t n s e t n g e A g s t A n e e r g a e A r a t n e e t r n s a e e s r p e t n r e p s e r p By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

A Problem-Solving Process s t n e g A r e t t a m Problem-Solving Process: Situational Modelling Situational Analysis Intervention and Evolving and Interpretation Executing Strategies Strategies s t n s e t n g e A g s t r A n e e t r t e g a t A m t a r m e t t a m By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

How Do Agents Act? Either • Automatic-Spontaneous or • Rational-Calculative or • Path-Dependent ? By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

What is path dependency? By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

Paul A. David: On Path Dependent Acting Agents “[..] while they are, as we now say, perfectly "free to choose," their behavior, nevertheless, is held fast in the grip of events long forgotten and shaped by circumstances in which neither they nor their interests figured.” (David 1985: 333) By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

The QWERTY-Keyboard Q Q W E R T Y U I O P A S D F By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

T-Y-P-E-W-R-I-T-E-R Q Q W E R T Y U I O P T Y P E W R I T E R T E R T Y P E W R I By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

What happens during following a path? Substantial Or routine rationality Some constancy By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

What happens during following a path? Substantial Just, follow rationality the routine By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

What happens during following a path? Use some Substantial Just, follow old routine rationality the routine New Situation! Create a new routine Adapt a new routine Execute action drafts of other decision instances By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

Ideal Type Path Dependent • Level 3: shaping the meta-patterns: Recognize decision instances / drafts, execute decision process drafts • Level 2: containing patterns: external decision criteria instances are good; routines are good; institutions / (e.g. Values, norms) standards are right • Level 1: containing drafts action drafts as preversion for later action action By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009

A Problem-Solving Process h t a P y c n e d n e p e s r d e t Problem-Solving Process: t a m Situational Modelling Situational Analysis Intervention and Evolving and Interpretation Executing Strategies Strategies h h t t a a P y P y h c c t n n a e e P y d d c n n n e e e p p d s s e e n d r d r e e e p t t t t e s a a d r m m e t t a m By Jasmin Kominek KlimaCampus Conference Hamburg, 2009