UNCLASSIFIED Counter Narcotics Strategies and Operational Realities May 2009 Peter D. Burgess Counter Narcotics Project Office UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Overview – Narcotics Trafficking • Operational picture – Counter ‐ narcotics Strategies • Concepts • Stakeholders – Operational Counter ‐ narcotics Support • Translating strategy to work • Holistic UNCLASSIFIED 2
UNCLASSIFIED Barbary Wars • 1789 –Drafting of US Constitution dodged by threat of piracy from Barbary Coast – Barbary Pirates (vassals to the Sultan) attacking US merchant ships trading with Ottoman Empire • 1794 ‐ Naval Act authorized construction of a Navy– – USS United States; USS Constellation; USS Constitution , USS Chesapeake, USS Congress, USS President • US ‐ Ottoman trade increased 4 ‐ fold after war – No. 1 valued import from Ottomans – Opium UNCLASSIFIED 3 UNCLASSIFIED Global Illicit Traffic FBI Presentation – Cairo Egypt April 09 UNCLASSIFIED 4
UNCLASSIFIED Cocaine Traffic North America Demand¹ European demand² • 450-530 m-tons • 350 m-tons • $30,000 wholesale • $47,000/kg wholesale • $119,000 retail • $93,000/kg retail • $60- 100 billion profit margin • $28-50 billion profit margin TB 500 240 M-tons • 1/3 by Air = 80,000 couriers AQIM 600 • 1/3 by Sea = 50-80 sailings € £ € £ • 1/3 by Land = 320 4x4 trucks FARC $ $ Al Shabab 300 240 M-tons • 80% by sea = 100 ship crossings • Crossing every 3 days Source Zone African Transit Zone • 20% by Air =80 aircraft sorties • 990 m-tons pure • 240 m-tons pure • $3,000/kg • Flight every 4 days • $15-22,000/kg • $2.97 billion • $3.6-5.3 billion UNODC, 2008 WDR : ¹ Demand pg 76, prices pg 49; ² Demand pg 77 ;³prices pg 82. UNCLASSIFIED 5 UNCLASSIFIED Heroin Traffic European Demand¹ Heroin Exports² • 350 - 400 m-tons • 820 m-tons • $31,000/kg wholesale • 60% via Pakistan (480 m-tons) • $67,000/kg retail • 100 M-tons via air/380 M-tons via Sea • $28-50 billion profit margin • 20% via Iran (160 m-tons) • 20% via Central Asia (160 m-tons) 850 2200 TB AQIM South Asia Margins • Buy 480m-tons @ $3,500/kg = $1.68B • Sell 480m-tons @ $12,000/kg = $5.76B • Margin = $4.08 billion • Pakistan Military budget $20.0B Al Shabab East Africa Demand³ • 40 m-tons • 1.2 million users • 400k daily users • $22,000/kg wholesale • $18,000/Kg retail • $-160.0m loss UNODC, 2008 WDR : ¹ users pg 56, prices pg 49; ² pg 47 ; Paris Pact Conference, Nairobi Sept 08. UNCLASSIFIED 6
UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors – East Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Dubai Nairobi Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 4,500,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • 500,000 m-tons cargo • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 72,700 aircraft sorties • 40,000 aircraft sorties J-Burg Mauritius Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 2,500,000 passengers • 12,500,000 passengers • 45,000 m-tons cargo • NA • 19,000 aircraft sorties • 150,000 aircraft sorties UNCLASSIFIED 7 UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors – North Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Casablanca Algiers Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 6,000,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 72,700 aircraft sorties • 72,700 aircraft sorties Cairo Tunis Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 10,800,000 passengers • 4,800,000 passengers • Not available • 276,800 m-tons cargo • 110,800 aircraft sorties • 72,700 aircraft sorties UNCLASSIFIED 8
UNCLASSIFIED Air Vectors – West Africa http://www.azworldairports.com/cfm/homepage.cfm Dakar Abidjan Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 1,000,000 passengers • 775,420 passengers • NA • 15,726 m-tons cargo • NA • 14,486 aircraft sorties Lagos Kotoka- Tema Annual Throughput Annual Throughput • 3,848,757 passengers • 636,114 passengers • 83,599 m-tons • 40,877 m-tons cargo • 74,650 aircraft sorties • 8,161 aircraft sorties UNCLASSIFIED 9 UNCLASSIFIED North African Smuggling Potential North African Wholesale Value Cocaine: 150 M-tons @ $30-40,000/Kg North African Lift = $4.5-6.0 Billion Requirements ~ 80 M-tons via commercial aircraft • 80,000 pax ~ 80 M-tons overland • 320 4x4 Hilux Trucks • ~ 80 M-tons via coastal vessel to Morocco • 40-80 vessels Potential West African Wholesale Value Cocaine: 240 M-tons @ $20,000/Kg = $4.8 Billion UNCLASSIFIED 10
UNCLASSIFIED West African Maritime Problem Set • Magnitude of trafficking – 100 illicit narcotics vessels – 60 illicit aircraft sorties • 2800 nm of coast line from Nigeria to Cape Verde – 33,600 sq nm of territorial waters – 560,000 sq nm of economic zone waters • Limited radar coverage • Limited maritime assets (patrol & intercept) – 700 Defender & Archangel class boats for 10,500 nm of US coast – Applying same ratio, West Africa requires 186 such boats – Approximately $200 million without support and sustainment UNCLASSIFIED 11 UNCLASSIFIED West African Resources CIA WFB 2009 UNCLASSIFIED 12
UNCLASSIFIED CN Strategy Stakeholders United Nations National Security Strategy National Strategy National Drug UN Conventions Combating Terror Control Strategy 1961, 1972, 1988 Paris Pact Other Govt DoS & US AID DoD DHS DoJ African Union Agencies Strategic Plan Nat'l Def Strategy Int Narcotics Nat'l Military Treasury CBP African Regional FBI Control Strat Strategy Organizations Commerce ICE DEA GWOT NEA & Africa US Coast Bureaus Strategy Others African States Guard AFRICOM RWOT AFRICOM Mission Plan Country Strat Inform Inform AFRICOM CNT Inform Inform Influence Strategy Influence Influence Influence UNCLASSIFIED 13 UNCLASSIFIED Counter Narcotics Strategy • Narcotics trafficking is a free enterprise system – Based on two forces: Market Demand and Supply Availability • All strategic efforts fall under two broad categories: Demand Reduction Supply Disruption • Prevention • Eradication – Public awareness • Alternative livelihood – Deterrence • Supply chain pressure – Drug Diversion – Interdiction • Intervention – Border security – Detection & screening – Customs – Treatment • Law Enforcement • Financial flow s UNCLASSIFIED 14
UNCLASSIFIED Trafficking Value Chain Activities 1988 Convention on Trafficking ‐ Offenses INVESTIGATION INTERDICTION Cultivation Organization delivery Production Management dispatch Extraction Financing dispatch in transit Manufacture Delivery transport Preparation Brokerage importation Possession manufacture, transport exportation or distribution of Offering equipment, materials or Offering for sale of substances used to Distribution cultivate, produce or manufacture Sale / purchase UNCLASSIFIED 15 UNCLASSIFIED DoD CD Support ‐ §1004 • Support requested “by an • Maintenance, repair, or appropriate official of a upgrading of equipment department or agency… • Transportation for counter ‐ that has counter ‐ drug drug activities responsibilities…” (NDAA 1004(a)(3)) • Establishment and – Have concurrence of US operation of bases of Ambassador to HN operations or training – Have concurrence of HN CD authority • Counter ‐ drug training; • Support US or HN Drug provision of necessary LEA or security forces materials & support with drug enforcement responsibilities • Establishment of C4I networks; to improve integration of law enforcement and military UNCLASSIFIED 16
UNCLASSIFIED Operational Elements Interdiction Operations Land Operations See it Detect & Monitor • Mobile Units/Check pts • Canine units Chase it Pursuit & Intercept • Intelligence & Investigation Catch it Law Enforcement • Prosecution Prosecute Judicial • Anti ‐ corruption Punish Justice Maritime Operations Border Control/Security • Airport interdiction • Detection & Monitor • Intelligence • Patrol/Intercept boats • Cargo/Passenger inspection • Intelligence • Coast watchers • Support facilities • Roaming patrols • Maritime agreements UNCLASSIFIED 17 UNCLASSIFIED Intelligence & Investigation • Legal authorities • Special investigation units • Organized crime/corruption • Financial Intelligence • Information fusion center • Prosecutorial investigation • JIATF ‐ South lessons learned – Best source of actionable information derived from LE – What is best source of LE information??? UNCLASSIFIED 18
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