The Path to Near-Zero Overview Overview Vehicle Emissions: Applying California’s Experience To China � California Dr. Alan C. Lloyd – Air Quality and Emission Reduction Strategy Chairman – Status of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Regulation – The California Fuel Cell Partnership California Air Resources Board – Reducing Climate Change Emissions from Vehicles And HARBIN � China Michael P. Walsh SHENYANG – Rapid Vehicle Growth BEIJING Consultant ÜRÜMQI TIANJIN – Environmental & Energy Impacts LANZHOU XI´AN SHANGHAI WUHAN – The Path Forward- Applying California’s Experience LHASA CHENGDU Beijing, China GUANGZHOU November 12-13, 2003 Air Pollution is Widespread Air Pollution is Widespread Motor Vehicles are Motor Vehicles are Dominant Emission Source Dominant Emission Source Days Over State Days Over State Ozone Standard PM10 Standard Mobile - 69% Industry & areawide Based on 2000 Monitoring Data 0-5 Days 6-50 Days 50-100 Days >100 Days 1
Many Vehicle Sources are Major Many Vehicle Sources are Major Emitters Emitters The Challenge The Challenge � 22 million cars in California Cars & LDT Larger Trucks Larger Trucks 43% � Average age of passenger cars is 10 75% Off- 6% Road 37% years Off- Road 19% � Average daily mileage of 35 miles 20% Cars & Reactive Organic Reactive Organic LDT Gases � California VMT continues to grow Gases Oxides of Oxides of Nitrogen Nitrogen ~2% per year 2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin 2010 - Los Angeles Air Basin What Has Happened Since What Has Happened Since The Low The Low- -Emission Vehicle/Zero Emission Vehicle/Zero 1990? 1990? Emission Vehicle Solution Emission Vehicle Solution � Batteries fell short – performance � Analysis in 1990 showed that – cost conventional technology would not be sufficient � Conventional technology over-achieved (matched battery vehicle charging � Some part of the fleet had to emit emissions) near “zero” levels � New near-zero emission technologies � LEV/ZEV program adopted introduced – hybrids – gaseous fuels 2
ZEV Regulation Restructured in ZEV Regulation Restructured in Evolution of ARB Auto Controls Evolution of ARB Auto Controls 2003 for More Flexibility 2003 for More Flexibility Implementation: 1994 - - 2010 2010 Implementation: 1994 Near-Zero Conventional Low Emission Vehicle I 10 % Mandate 0.7 6 % Vehicles (Path 1) Cleaner Gasoline 0.6 >0 - 2 % Battery Electric 0.5 g/mile HC + NOx H2 Fuel Cell Low Emission Vehicle II 0.4 (Path 3) Goal:Zero 0.3 2 - 4 % 2 % Clean Hybrids 0.2 (Path 2) 0.1 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Vehicle Production Scenario Path 1: Near Path 1: Near- -Zero Emission Zero Emission Vehicle Production Scenario Conventional Vehicles Conventional Vehicles (example) (example) 1200000 ZEV Hybrids 1000000 � Near zero exhaust emissions Near-Zero � Zero evaporative emissions 800000 � 15 year/150,000 mile warranty 600000 � On-board diagnostics � 140,000 sales in 2003 400000 � 200,000 sales in 2004 200000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Model Year 3
Path 2: Hybrid Electric Path 2: Hybrid Electric Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Toyota Prius Hybrid � Three models now available “ ZEV enabling” technology: � More models coming • electric drive train • batteries � ~ 20,000 sales • power management expected in 2005 Honda Civic Hybrid Lexus 400 H Hybrid (coming soon) Incentives for Near- Incentives for Near -Zero Emission Zero Emission Path 3: Battery Electric and Path 3: Battery Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles � Extra regulatory incentives (credits) � Full size battery electric encourage “strong” hybridization � Neighborhood electric � Incentives based on: – system voltage � Fuel cell – power output of the electric motor � Short term incentives for 42-volt systems 4
Full Full- -Sized Battery Electric Sized Battery Electric Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles � Over 2,500 25 mph top speed sold or leased limited range � Cost and 2-4 passengers range issues shifts focus: Over 8,000 sold – smaller or leased in vehicles response to ZEV – fuel cells regulation Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Benefits Hydrogen Fuel Cell Benefits � Promising technology � No direct smog-forming or greenhouse � Significant cost, gas emissions manufacturing and � Potential for extremely low lifecycle performance challenges (“well to wheel”) emissions � Volume production � Better fuel economy, greater efficiency expected 2010 or later � Quiet and smooth operation 5
California Fuel Cell California Fuel Cell Transition to Fuel Cells Transition to Fuel Cells Partnership Partnership � Prototype fuel cell vehicles now � Promotes fuel cell being demonstrated vehicle commercialization � Infrastructure � California Fuel Cell Partnership � Safety � Public Education Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cell Vehicles - - Today Today Fuel Infrastructure Fuel Infrastructure • Liquid H 2 storage • Delivers gaseous hydrogen at two pressures: •3600 psi & 5000 psi • Fill time < 4 minutes 41 cars 2400+ fueling events Over 122,000 miles 5,000+ riders/drivers 6
Climate Change is a Major Climate Change is a Major Global Climate Change is a Global Climate Change is a Concern for California Concern for California Major Challenge Major Challenge Health Air Quality - Respiratory Illness Weather-related Mortality Infectious and Tropical Diseases � May be an opportunity for hybrid Agriculture Climate Changes Crop Yields Irrigation Demands vehicles Temperature Forests Increase Forest Composition � Technology mix will depend on fuel Geographic Range of Forests Precipitation Forest Health and Productivity Patterns and cell progress Water Resources Extremes Water Supply Water Quality Sea Level Competition for Water Rise Coastal Areas Erosion of Beaches Inundation of Coastal Wetlands Additional Costs to Protect Coastal Communities Source: Anne Grambsch, 1998 Species and Natural Areas Loss of Habitat and Species Transportation is California’s Hotter Days Lead to Higher Hotter Days Lead to Higher Transportation is California’s Emissions and More Smog Largest Source of CO 2 Emissions and More Smog Largest Source of CO 0.30 2 0.25 Electricity h Los Angeles Commercial 0.20 Generation Ozone Levels Ozone (ppm) 4% (1995-1998) ) 16% 0.15 Industrial h 10 warmest 13% years of the California Ozone Standard 0.10 last century all occurred Residential 0.05 within the last Transportation 9% 15 years. 58% 0.00 40 60 80 100 120 Temperature ( o F) Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 7
Climate Change Legislation in Climate Change Legislation in Climate Change Regulation Climate Change Regulation California California � Regulations will provide flexibility, � Achieve maximum feasible and cost- not mandate specific technology effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light � Hybrid vehicles will compete with trucks other emerging technologies � Hybrid’s role will depend on � 2009 and later model years developments in conventional and fuel cell technology - but increased sales seems certain Where Do We Stand in China? Long Long- -Term Vision Term Vision Outline: � The ultimate goal remains - HARBIN Vehicle Trends & Forecasts Associated Problems zero-emission technology SHENYANG BEIJING Air Pollution ÜRÜMQI � Must be energy-efficient; TIANJIN Global Warming LANZHOU Oil Imports reduced climate impact XI´AN SHANGHAI Advanced Technologies Could WUHAN LHASA CHENGDU � California is taking the Help Solve These Problems GUANGZHOU necessary steps now 8
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