LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day and Recidivism Rates Projections, Costs Per Day, and Recidivism Rates PRESENTED AT THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON CRIMINAL JURISPRUDENCE HEARING LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF MARCH 2015
Correctional Population Projections: Overview Overview C Correctional population projections are produced to serve as a ti l l ti j ti d d t basis for biennial funding determinations. Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices. Subsequent shifts in these factors will be incorporated into future LBB projections LBB projections. The LBB simulation model incorporates these factors into the p population projections and tracks offender movement into, through, and out of the criminal and juvenile justice systems. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 2
Adult Correctional Projections: Overview Population projections consider: Total Adult Population in Texas Total Adult Population in Texas Arrests Court Activity Court Activity Considerations and Approvals from the Board of Pardons and Paroles Admissions Length of Stay Qualitative Research Findings MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 3
Adult Correctional Projections: Populations j ■ Correctional Institutions ■ Parole ■ Community Supervision Average Felony Direct Misdemeanor Placements MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 4
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity p p g p y Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 170,000 165,000 Actual Population Fiscal Year 2010 160,000 154,283 Projected Population Projected Population Fiscal Year 2015 Fi l Y 2015 Fi Fiscal Year 2020 l Y 2020 155,000 150,476 152,710 150,000 145 000 145,000 140,000 Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity 135,000 130,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 5
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity p p g p y Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020 I NCARCERATION O PERATING C APACITY C OMPARED P OPULATION F ISCAL O PERATING TO P ROJECTED P OPULATION ( END - OF - MONTH Y EAR Y EAR C APACITY C APACITY D IFFERENCE D IFFERENCE P ERCENTAGE P ERCENTAGE YEARLY AVERAGE ) YEARLY AVERAGE ) 2015 150,476 152,760 2,284 1.5% 2016 151,306 152,760 1,454 1.0% 2017 151,550 152,760 1,210 0.8% 2018 152,025 152,760 735 0.5% 2019 2019 152 413 152,413 152,760 152 760 347 347 0 2% 0.2% 2020 152,710 152,760 50 0.0% Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of the sum of total unit capacities N t O ti it i 96 0 t f th f t t l it iti Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 6
Adult Correctional Projections: Parole Parole Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 100,000 88,053 87,588 81,220 81,220 80,000 Actual Projected 60,000 40,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 7
Adult Correctional Projections: Parole Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020 P ROJECTED A CTIVE A DULT P AROLE S UPERVISION F ISCAL P OPULATION Y EAR ( END - OF - MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE ) 2015 87,588 2016 87,646 2017 2017 87,751 87 751 2018 87,826 2019 2019 87,941 87,941 2020 88,053 Source: Legislative Budget Board. g g MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 8
Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Felony Direct Community Supervision Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 180,000 175,000 172,893 170,000 0,000 165,000 159,548 159,355 160,000 155,000 Actual Projected 150,000 145,000 145,000 140,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 9
Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision y y p Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020 P ROJECTED F ELONY D IRECT C OMMUNITY F ISCAL S UPERVISION P OPULATION Y EAR ( END - OF - MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE ) 2015 159,355 2016 159,485 2017 2017 159 440 159,440 2018 159,007 2019 2019 159,145 159,145 2020 159,548 Source: Legislative Budget Board. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 10
Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 120,000 111,716 110,000 99 401 99,401 96,723 100,000 90,000 Actual Actual Projected Projected 80,000 70,000 60,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 11
Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020 F ISCAL P ROJECTED M ISDEMEANOR Y EAR C OMMUNITY S UPERVISION P LACEMENTS 2015 99,401 2016 98,427 2017 98,184 2018 97,940 2019 2019 96 966 96,966 2020 96,723 Source: Legislative Budget Board. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 12
Qualitative Review ■ Interviews and focus groups with adult practitioners in selected counties and at professional conferences. Participants included: □ judges; □ prosecutors; □ defense attorneys; □ adult community supervision staff; □ adult parole staff; □ state agency personnel; and □ adult community supervision and parole offenders. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 13
Qualitative Review Adult Criminal Justice Findings ■ ■ Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable. Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable. ■ The felony community supervision population is higher risk and higher need. ■ Incarceration remains an attractive option over community supervision for certain offenders. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 14
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: Overview Overview The February 2015 Adult and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report provides costs per day per person for various adult and Report provides costs per day per person for various adult and juvenile correctional populations for use in funding determinations and to provide a basis of comparison among correctional programs and previously published cost figures programs and previously published cost figures. ■ Uniform costs are assessments of the total costs of operating a correctional facility or program and are reported as costs per day per person. ■ Costs ■ Costs per per day day were were calculated calculated for for various various Texas Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) populations and programs for fiscal years 2013 and 2014. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 15
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: Highlights Highlights TDCJ Population Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2014 Prison (systemwide) $52.64 $54.89 Parole Supervision Parole Supervision $3.87 $3 87 $4 04 $4.04 Community Supervision $3.13 $3.20 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 16
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: Overview Revocation Rates Report: Overview ■ Recidivism is a return to criminal activity after previous criminal involvement. ■ Each cohort is followed for three years. ■ This report uses the following measures to determine recidivism recidivism. □ Rearrest □ Reincarceration □ Revocation MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 17
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: Highlights Revocation Rates Report: Highlights Fiscal Year 2011 Adult Populations Adult Populations Rearrest% Rearrest% Incarceration/Reincarceration% Incarceration/Reincarceration% Prison 46.5 21.4 State Jail 62.0 30.7 Substance Abuse Felony Punishment 44.7 44.1 Facility In-Prison Therapeutic Community 48.1 23.1 Intermediate Sanction Facility 57.5 36.5 Fiscal Year 2014 Revocation Rates Felony Direct Community Supervision 15.6 % Parole 6.5 % Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Department of Public Safety. MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 18
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