Overview of June 2016 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections PRESENTED AT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORUM LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF SEPTEMBER 2016
Criminal Justice Forum Parameters • Diverse group of participants • Learning opportunity for all • Limited to the subject area • Criminal Justice Forums are an opportunity for various groups to come together to learn about and discuss current issues in criminal and juvenile justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 2
Feedback Form (Final Page of the Handout) SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 3
Agenda • Introduction • Adult Projections • Juvenile Projections • Upcoming Qualitative Research • Projections and the Budget • Question and Answer SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 4
Adult Projections: Overview The adult projections cover the following correctional populations: • Incarceration • Parole • Community Supervision o Felony Direct o Misdemeanor Placements SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 5
Adult Projections: Methodology How long will How many each adult stay adults will come in the criminal into the criminal justice system? justice system? SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 6
Adult Projections: Methodology On-hand population with a predicted Import these length of populations into stay/supervision A projected Simul8 and population is enter number of generated Admission expected population with a admissions predicted length of stay/supervision • The simulation model tracks offender movement into, through, and out of the criminal justice system. • Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 7
Adult Projections: Methodology Population projections consider: • Population trends • Arrest trends • Court trends • Admission trends • Length of stay/supervision trends • Legislative, policy, and practice changes SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 8
Adult Projections: Key Trends Texas Adult Arrests Texas Adult Population 1,200,000 25,000,000 1,027,482 20,200,000 1,000,000 20,000,000 18,700,000 820,942 CHANGE 800,000 +8.0% CHANGE 15,000,000 -20.1% 600,000 10,000,000 400,000 5,000,000 200,000 - 0 CY 2010 CY 2014 CY 2010 CY 2014 Note: Adults are defined as individuals age 17 and older. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas State Data Center; Texas Department of Public Safety. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 9
Adult Projections: Incarceration • The Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) administers adult state correctional facilities. • The projected state incarceration population includes offenders housed in: Prison o State jail o Substance abuse felony punishment facilities o SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 10
Adult Projections: Incarceration Admissions Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 74,232 73,988 80,000 71,713 71,325 69,066 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 11
Adult Projections: Incarceration Length of Stay (in years) Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 12
Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Incarceration Population and Internal Operating Capacity Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 Actual Population Fiscal Year 2011 160,000 155,967 155,000 150,000 Projected Population 145,000 Projected Fiscal Year 2016 Population 147,717 Fiscal Year 2021 140,000 147,701 135,000 Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity 130,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 N OTE : In September 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 4,316 beds from capacity as part of the budget reductions directed by the Eighty-third Legislature. In December 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 40 beds from capacity to accommodate wheelchair accessibility. In July 2015, TDCJ permanently added 5 beds to capacity at the Santa Maria Unit to accommodate the expansion of the Baby and Mother Bonding Initiative program. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 13
Adult Projections: Incarceration Fiscal Years 2016 To 2021 I NTERNAL O PERATING C APACITY I NCARCERATION I NTERNAL C OMPARED TO P ROJECTED P OPULATION F ISCAL O PERATING P OPULATION ( END - OF - MONTH Y EAR C APACITY D IFFERENCE P ERCENTAGE YEARLY AVERAGE ) 2016 147,717 152,765 5,048 3.4% 2017 147,683 152,765 5,082 3.4% 2018 147,668 152,765 5,097 3.5% 2019 147,659 152,765 5,106 3.5% 2020 147,739 152,765 5,026 3.4% 2021 147,701 152,765 5,064 3.4% Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of sum of total unit capacities. The TDCJ internal operating capacity includes beds temporarily removed from capacity and will differ from the internal operating capacity reported in the LBB’s Monthly Correctional Indicators report. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 14
Adult Projections: Active Parole • Statute determines who is eligible for parole and when • Board of Pardons and Paroles (BPP) determines whether: o Eligible prisoners are approved for release to parole o Parolees violated supervision terms and, if so, whether to revoke parole • The TDCJ Parole Division supervises parolees and notifies BPP of supervision violations • The projected parole population covers active parolees – parolees who have not absconded SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 15
Adult Projections: Active Parole Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 60,000 50,000 42,276 37,195 37,642 36,655 40,000 35,035 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 16
Adult Projections: Active Parole Average Length of Supervision (in years) Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 4 2.9 3 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 17
Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Active Parole Supervision Population Fiscal Years 2011 To 2021 Actual Projected 100,000 88,278 87,687 80,953 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 18
Adult Projections: Community Supervision • Local courts: o Sentence probationers to community supervision o Determine whether a probationer violated supervision terms and, if so, whether to revoke supervision • Community Supervision and Corrections Departments (CSCDs) supervise offenders and notify courts of supervision violations. • TDCJ’s Community Justice Assistance Division monitors, funds, and supports CSCDs • The LBB generates projections for felons under direct supervision and misdemeanor placements. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 19
Adult Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015 80,000 56,758 54,363 60,000 53,396 54,095 52,965 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 20
Adult Projections: Felony Direct Average Length of Supervision (in years) Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 10 8 6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 21
Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Felony Direct Community Supervision Population Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 Actual Projected 200,000 170,994 158,298 156,096 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 22
Adult Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 140,000 120,000 105,498 103,514 104,385 99,645 94,597 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 23
Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 Actual Projected 120,000 105,498 94,308 86,897 80,000 40,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 24
Juvenile Projections: Overview • State Residential Populations • Parole Populations • Probation Populations Adjudicated Probation o Deferred Prosecution o Conditional Pre-Disposition o SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 25
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