outlook National Land Survey What does the market look like? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

outlook

National Land Survey

What does the market look like?

Sydney In a tight spot but hanging on

Melbourne Out of control, but will correct

Perth …pushing on

SEQ …steady effort

National Setting

National lot sales per month 3,836 pcm 6000 Current result 5000 Sales per Month 4000 17% down 3000 On a year prior 2000 1000 3,448 pcm 0 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Long running average

National lot sales per month by Market 2500 2500 Mel 2000 2000 Sales per Month Sales per Month 1500 1500 SEQ 1000 1000 Pth 500 500 Syd Adl 0 0 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Q2-16 Q2-18 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Q2-16 Q2-18

National lot prices - Median Price Annual $500 $450 Syd $425k 1% Median Lot Price ($,000) $400 Mel $342k +18% $350 $300 SEQ -1% $272k $250 Pth $220k 0% $200 $150 Adl 1% $185k $100 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17 Q2-18

Melbourne Greenfield

Melbourne Greenfield market is not facing a demand issue, it is facing a pricing issue driven by the housing market and frustrated by a lack of active supply Sales will be impacted by these pricing issues

Demand NoM NiM NOM Population Growth - Actual & Forecast NIM Population Growth - Actual & Forecast 35,000 6,000 Persons per Quarter 30,000 5,000 Persons per Quarter 25,000 4,000 20,000 3,000 15,000 2,000 10,000 1,000 5,000 - - -1,000 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018 Q2-2019 Q2-2020 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018 Q2-2019 Q2-2020 Conservative outlook taken for the forecast

Melbourne New Land Sales & Demand 1,473 pcm Actual Q3 18 2500 1,700 pcm 2000 Sales per Month Forecast – No change 1500 1,440 pcm 1000 Forecast – NOM Change 500 Underlying demand is based on forecast population inflows. Forecast relates to 2018-2020 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 October 2018 Update 1,200 lots per month Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Sale Volumes will be Impacted by Change to High land Lending prices Falling house Criteria prices Developer Lack of delivery Development Investor pull back Capacity Cooling Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Melbourne New Land Prices & Change $342K 35% $400 30% $350 Annual Price Chnage 25% Median Lot Price 20% 18%PA $300 15% $250 10% $200 5% 0% $150 -5% $100 -10% October 2018 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-18 Update $335,000 Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Melbourne Stock Level & Trading Months 2,300 14.0 6000 12.0 5000 Trading Months [ 3 month mav sales ] Stock of Lots ready for Sale 10.0 4000 8.0 Downward pressure on prices 3000 6.0 2000 Ideal Level 4.0 1000 2.0 1.6 month 0.0 0 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-18 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Melbourne New Releases & Ratio 5,200 150% 7000 Sales exceeding New 6000 Releases 130% New Releases - Quarter 5000 Sales to Production ratio 110% 4000 1:1 Even 3000 90% 85% 2000 70% 1000 Sales below New Releases 0 50% October 2018 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-18 Update 1,524 released Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Melbourne – Active Estates 130 Average net sale rate 20.0 per month for estates 170 trading each quarter 18.0 150 16.0 Average Project Sale Rate Projects Selling Each Quarter 14.0 130 12.0 11.5 10.0 110 8.0 90 6.0 4.0 70 2.0 0.0 50 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-18 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

Melbourne Cancellations 65pcm 35% 250 Above 15%, indicates 30% Lots Cancelled per month weakness in expressed Cancellation Rate 200 demand 25% 150 20% 15% Threshold 100 10% 50 4.5% 5% 0% 0 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 Q1-18 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Strictly for internal use only: Commercial in confidence: All Rights Research4

3 Card Assessment Game 1 Is the Land Market following? 2 Are land price “Fair Value”? 3 Is there enough Development Capacity?

Land Market- Leading or Following

House & Land Price Index New Land Price 250 Index 214 200 150 Established House Index Price Index 100 183 50 0 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018

House & Land Price Index Melbourne Sydney SEQ Perth 250 250 250 250 200 200 200 200 150 150 150 150 Index Index Index Index 100 100 100 100 Leading Follow Follow Follow 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0

Fair Vale – Over or Under fair Value

Fair Value Assessment Median Land Price : Median metro House Price Percent Median house price as per ABS. Land prices as per R4 46% 50% 45% Land to House Ratio 40% 40% 35% 30% Melbourne land prices are above 25% the long running benchmark 20% Q2-2008 Q4-2008 Q2-2009 Q4-2009 Q2-2010 Q4-2010 Q2-2011 Q4-2011 Q2-2012 Q4-2012 Q2-2013 Q4-2013 Q2-2014 Q4-2014 Q2-2015 Q4-2015 Q2-2016 Q4-2016 Q2-2017 Q4-2017 Q2-2018 Q4-2018 Q2-2019 Q4-2019 Q2-2020

Land to House Ratio Fair Value Assessment 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Q2-2008 Sydney Q2-2011 +$11,000 44% Q2-2014 Q2-2017 Q2-2020 Land to House Ratio 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Q2-2008 Melbourne Q2-2011 +$48,000 40% Q2-2014 Q2-2017 Q2-2020 Land to House Ratio 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Q2-2008 Q2-2011 SEQ -$13,000 54% Q2-2014 Q2-2017 Q2-2020 Land to House Ratio 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Q2-2008 Q2-2011 Perth -$10,000 46% Q2-2014 Q2-2017 Q2-2020

Greenfield Development Capacity

What is Greenfield Development Capacity ?

Estate Estate Estate Estate Estate Estate Estate The full production capacity of active land estates within a market Estate Estate Estate Estate Estate Estate

How much Development capacity is needed ?

How much Development capacity is needed? 2:1 Capacity needs to double demand

Melbourne Development Capacity & Price 5.0 Melbourne Greenfield Development to Demand 4.0 ratio Capacity : Demand 3.0 2:1 Ratio 2.0 Current Ratio 1.0 1.4 : 1 0.0 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018 Q2-2019 Q2-2020

Melbourne Development Capacity 5.0 ABOVE 2:1 4.0 High Levels of industry Capacity : Demand competition. 3.0 Downward pressure on land prices 2:1 Ratio 2.0 BELOW 2:1 1.0 Low Levels of industry competition. Upward pressure on 0.0 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018 Q2-2019 Q2-2020 land prices

Melbourne Development Capacity & Price Capacity : Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Q2-2008 Q2-2009 Q2-2010 Q2-2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2013 Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2016 Q2-2017 Q2-2018 Q2-2019 Q2-2020 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Annual Land Price Change when ratio below 2:1 Rapid price growth PRICE IMPACT

Active Supply Feeding Capacity Rundown by capacity Rundown by capacity 133 140 120,000 107431 120 100,000 106 Supply in Lots 82501 Estates with Supply 100 80,000 72 80 61508 60,000 60 45755 42 35529 40,000 40 28314 27 17 20,000 20 0 0 Now 2019(f) 2020(f) 2021(f) 2022(f) 2023(f) Now 2019(f) 2020(f) 2021(f) 2022(f) 2023(f)

Net Effect by close of 2019 Without any new estates, 1:1 the Development Capacity will be 1:1 ratio

Net Effect by close of 2019 To get the Development 70 Capacity back to 2:1 there is required 70 new standard sized trading estates. New estates Over the next five years the market requires on required average 28 per year.