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OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa International Food Policy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa International Food Policy Research Institute Thursday, July 08, 2010 AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA

  1. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa International Food Policy Research Institute Thursday, July 08, 2010

  2. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CRISES OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 1 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 2 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS 5

  3. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 1 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 2 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS 5

  4. PRE-CRISIS ERA COINCIDED WITH LONGEST PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GROWTH SINCE 60S Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th) GDP grow th (annual %) 9 Percent (%) 6 3 0 -3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 SOURCE: Badiane 2008: IFPRI Policy Brief No. 9

  5. THE GROWTH IS ACCELERATING AS WELL AS SPREADING GEOGRAPHICALLY SOURCE: IFPRI / Badiane and Ulimwengu Data from national account s / UN database: http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA

  6. AGRICULTURAL TRADE PERFORMANCE HAS ALSO TURNED AROUND WITH THE NEW MILLENNIUM AFRICAN vs WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME) AFRICAN vs WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE) 125 160 155 120 150 145 115 140 135 110 130 125 120 105 115 110 100 105 100 95 95 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 World Africa World Africa SOURCE: Badiane 2008: IFPRI Policy Brief No. 9

  7. WHAT ARE THE FACTORS BEHIND THE GROWTH RECOVERY? Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th) GDP grow th (annual %) 9 Percent (%) 6 3 0 -3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 World Commodity Price Indices, 1980-2011 300 Price Index, 2005 =100 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wheat Maize Rice Page 7

  8. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 1 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 2 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS 5

  9. THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE CRISIS OF 2007-08 Price spike 125 800 Corn Wheat 100 600 Rice US$/barrel US$/ton Oil (right scale) 75 400 50 200 25 0 0 Source: J. von Braun; Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

  10. LONG TERM WORLD FOOD PRICE TRENDS AND GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA US$/ton 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rice Wheat Maize Oilseeds Soybean Source: IFPRI / M. Rosegrant (prelim. results with IMPACT-WATER).

  11. PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS AND FUTURE COMPETITIVENESS OF AFRICAN AGRICULTURE RISING AFRICAN AG PRODUCTIVITY DECLINING WORLD AG PRODUCTIVITY 2.5 6 maize Value of Ag Average annual growth rate (%) 5 rice Inputs 2.0 wheat TFP 4 Index (1970=1) 1.5 3 2 1.0 1 0.5 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

  12. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 1 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 2 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS 5

  13. IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON AGRICULTURE THE IMPACT CHANNELS RECESSION – EXPORT DEMAND - TERMS OF TRADE AG. REVENUES 1 LIQUIDITY TRAP – FDI – REMITTANCES -TRADE CREDIT AG. FINANCE 2 FOREX AND FISCAL DEFICITS AG EXPENDITURE / INVESTMENT 3 DOMESTIC AND ASSISTANCE POLICY RESPONSES SECTOR RESPONSE 4

  14. IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS DEMAND, PRICES, AND AFRICAN EXPORTS 300 140 4000 Commodity Fuel Index Coffee, Robusta Cotton Cocoa Food Index 3500 250 120 Price Index, 2005= 100 Coffee, Cotton , US cents/ Index of Agricultural Raw Materials Cocoa, US $/ton 3000 100 200 Index of Industrial Inputs 2500 80 150 2000 60 pound 100 1500 40 1000 50 20 500 0 0 0 2000 … 2000 … 2000 … 2001 … 2001 … 2001 … 2002 … 2002 … 2002 … 2003 … 2003 … 2003 … 2004 … 2004 … 2004 … 2005 … 2005 … 2005 … 2006 … 2006 … 2006 … 2007 … 2007 … 2007 … 2008 … 2008 … 2008 … 2009 … 2009 … 2009 … 2000M1 2000M5 2000M9 2001M1 2001M5 2001M9 2002M1 2002M5 2002M9 2003M1 2003M5 2003M9 2004M1 2004M5 2004M9 2005M1 2005M5 2005M9 2006M1 2006M5 2006M9 2007M1 2007M5 2007M9 2008M1 2008M5 2008M9 2009M1 2009M5 2009M9 IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 102.00% 108.00% IMPACT ON OVERALL AFRICAN EXPORTS 101.00% 106.00% 100.00% 104.00% Recession 99.00% 102.00% + stronger Finance 98.00% 100.00% constraints Recession (decline in demand) + stronger Finance 97.00% 98.00% constraints + Finance (+2.66xestimates) constraints 96.00% 96.00% + Finance constraints (actual 94.00% 95.00% country estimates) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: IFPRI/Estrades and Laborde Price data from IMF World Economic Outlook

  15. FDI AND AGRICULTURAL SECTOR GROWTH IN AFRICA 4 Nigeria Sudan Algeria Egypt Ethiopia 2 Tanzania Morocco South Africa Ghana Kenya C. Ivoire Cameroon Tunisia Uganda Congo (DRC) Burkina Faso Malawi Mozambique Niger Mali Zimbabwe Rwanda Senegal Chad Benin Madagascar Guinea 0 Angola C. Africa Rep. Zambia Togo Gabon Burundi Somalia Congo Liberia Mauritania Mauritius S. Leone Gambia Eritrea Botswana Comoros -2 Eq. Guinea G. Bissau Swaziland Lesotho Cape Verde Seychelles S. Tome and Principe -4 Djibouti 0 2 4 6 8 Log of Net FDI Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu Page 15

  16. FINANCIAL CRISIS, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH 10 10 Swaziland 1970-1980 1981-1990 Rwanda Lesotho Guinea-Bissau Cameroon Benin Tunisia S. T.and Principe Mali Morocco Namibia Malawi C. Ivoire Angola Mali 5 5 Comoros Tunisia B. Faso Zimbabwe Tanzania Liberia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Mozambique Sierra Leone Algeria Kenya Lesotho Comoros Nigeria Somalia Namibia Zimbabwe Burundi Egypt Senegal Benin Algeria Somalia Guinea Togo Cape Verde Congo Guinea Djibouti Cape Verde DRC Zambia Congo Egypt Swaziland C. African Rep. Sierra Leone Ghana Mauritania Cameroon Madagascar Morocco Chad Niger Sudan Burundi Zambia C. African Rep. Gambia Sudan Rwanda Mauritania Senegal Malawi Djibouti DRC Madagascar Angola B. Faso Ghana 0 Togo 0 C. Ivoire Mozambique Uganda Chad Gambia S. T.and Principe Niger Nigeria Guinea-Bissau Liberia -5 -5 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 200 250 Per capita aid (us dollar) Per capita aid (us dollar) 15 Sudan 1991-1999 2000-2006 Liberia Angola 10 Sierra Leone Nigeria B. Faso Chad Malawi 10 Morocco Zambia Benin Niger Algeria 5 Mozambique Gambia Uganda Ghana Namibia Tunisia Togo Tanzania Zimbabwe Nigeria C. African Rep. Egypt Guinea DRC Guinea-Bissau Djibouti Cape Verde Morocco Mali Cameroon Senegal Congo Comoros Rwanda Kenya Madagascar C. Ivoire Rwanda Swaziland Mauritania Algeria Niger Tanzania 5 Gambia Mozambique Egypt Ghana S. T.and Principe Lesotho B. Faso Congo Guinea 0 Chad Benin Cameroon Sudan Djibouti C. African Rep. Mali Comoros Burundi Kenya S. T.and Principe Somalia Namibia Tunisia Uganda Malawi Madagascar Guinea-Bissau Zambia Togo Senegal Cape Verde Liberia 0 Somalia C. Ivoire Mauritania -5 Burundi Swaziland Angola DRC Lesotho Sierra Leone -10 Zimbabwe -5 0 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 Per capita aid (us dollar) Per capita aid (us dollar) Source: IFPRI/Badiane and Ulimwengu Page 16

  17. MACROECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN AFRICA (%) Overall Fiscal Balance, Including Grants (as % Africa: Current Account Balance 6 as Share of GDP of GDP) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 1997-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 -2 -1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -2 -4 -3 -6 -4 (%) Africa: Inflation and External Debt Private Financial Flows to Africa as Share of GDP 50 70 45 60 40 billions of US $ 50 35 40 30 25 30 20 20 15 10 10 5 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1998- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 Inflation, average consumer prices External debt, as share of GDP Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Page 17

  18. THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS ON GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 8 7 6 5 4 Annual Percent Change (%) 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -1 -2 World Africa Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Page 18

  19. AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMC GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OVERVIEW OF RECENT GROWTH TRENDS IN AFRICA 1 THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 2 THE IMPACT OF CHANGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 EMERGING AGRICULTURAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 4 SUSTAINING AND ACCELERATING THE RECOVERY PROCESS 5

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