Optimizing and Defending Capital Allocations for Distribution Assets Steve Bubb Metering Americas April 25, 2006
Load Data is critical to a number of processes & systems Circuit Analysis Tool Distribution Planning Load Data Engineering Bank Operations OMS Feeder Asset Management Protection Transmission Planning Device GIS DSM Projects Account Management Transformer Protection Customer Analysis Transmission Load flow 2
Loading impacts transformers, wire and cable loss-of-life Understanding asset status is key to optimization. 7.0% Ideal Loading 6.0% % of Transformers at each loading level 5.0% 4.0% Under Utilized Over Utilized Wasted Capital Reduced Reliability 3.0% 2.0% Traditional Approach 1.0% With Customer Data 0.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Value 3
Typical Existing SCADA/Meters/Read Sheets Substation Bank Loads Distribution T1 T2 Load Data Sources SCADA/Meters/Read Sheets Circuit Amps SW SW Monthly/ daily C customer usage data typically not used C C SW SW C NO Interval data for C large customers typically not used SW 4
Common Utility Comments Efficiency “I should be spending most of my time doing analysis, not gathering data.” “I would like to see quicker turn around on engineering analysis.” “We don’t have time to review all of our circuits every year.” Accuracy and Consistency “Each engineer has their own spreadsheets and methods.” “Almost all of our experienced planners are leaving in the next 3 years. I need some consistency in the process to makeup for lack of experience.” “We don’t use our TLM because we don’t believe the data.” Justification “We stopped our TLM program a couple of years ago and went to run to failure. We don’t know if there is a large scale problem looming out there or not” “We can’t afford to build for a 1 in 100 year heat wave, nor would the commission want us to. We would like to be able to show the commission what failure rate we would expect for certain defined weather conditions and decide together what we should build to withstand, rather than reacting after the fact. ” 5
Distribution data challenges Issues with substation data � SCADA data is either inaccessible, hard to get to or not reliable for analysis (not validated) � Metering is not read often enough and/or not readily accessible Issues with data downstream of the breaker � There is still relatively little measured data between the customer and the breaker � Fixed network or mesh network AMR is providing more granular data at the customer level, but it is hard to manage and package for T&D Issues with TLM � Data is not validated bill data is not necessarily good usage data � Connectivity data quality varies significantly within the utility � GIS and CIS input processes impact connectivity data quality 6
7 Meter data can help fill the information gap
Increasing the granularity of data is one key ingredient to better decision making, but weather is the driver of surprises. 8
If it was a cool year, how do you combat the “we aren’t having any loading issues” question? Xcel Energy Feeder MEL089 Loading By Weather Scenario 10 9 8 Demand (MW) 7 Extreme 6 Typical Actual 5 4 3 2 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 Hours of Week Beginning July 17, 2004 9
Weather scenarios can be defined and simulated Summer Cumulative Hourly Temperature Distribution Minneapolis Airport 1961 1962 1963 4000 1964 1965 1966 3500 1967 1968 1969 Number of hours exceeding 1970 1971 1972 3000 1973 1974 1975 temperature 2500 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 2000 1982 1983 1984 1500 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1000 1991 1992 1993 500 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 Temperature (°F) Summer Cumulative Hourly Temperature Distribution Minneapolis Airport 4000 Number of hours exceeding 3500 3000 Extreme 1 in 10 Scenario temperature 2500 2000 1500 Typical Scenario 1000 500 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Temperature (°F) 10
Example Applications
Typical Annual Capacity Planning Process Check Load Gather Filter Out Load Transfers Analyze Recommend Peak Load Switching and Known Overloads Solution Projections Peaks Data Loads Sources • Estimating/ • Excel • SCADA • Excel • TLM Data Engineering • Manual Reads • HG • SCADA • New service • Substation Reads Applications requests from Interval Meters • LDC • Mainframe • Database • PI • Customer Tools • Spreadsheets • Database • Individual • Individual meter • Transformer • HG Application Spreadsheets interfaces • Feeder • 3D Chart • Spreadsheets/ • Bank • Circuit analysis tools databases • Paper sheets/charts • Consistency • Consistency • Often relies on • Multiple systems • Labor Issues • Loads not • Estimated load communications • Gaps in data intensive weather data downstream between • No validation process normalized of breaker departments • Reconciliation • No weather risk • Labor intensive of multiple analysis data sources 12
Typical Annual Area Planning Process Annual Growth Circuits Circuit Load History** 5 yr AGR of Substation Ban Limit Capacity actual loads Name k # CCT # Device Voltage Limit 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (%) Kentucky 1 813221 OH 12470 10000 8043 8164 7862 7681 9865 4.17 Kentucky 1 813223 OH 12470 10000 10281 10402 10402 10766 12784 4.45 Kentucky 1 813225 OH 12470 10000 2873 2721 2721 2721 2955 0.56 Kentucky 2 813222 OH 12470 10000 9797 9555 9313 9556 10874 2.11 Kentucky 2 813224 OH 12470 10000 7076 6713 6410 6894 8048 2.61 Pennsylvania 1 815121 UG 12470 10000 13834 10054 8845 12020 10841 -4.76 Pennsylvania 1 815125 UG 12470 10000 10765 10765 10281 10403 10781 0.03 Pennsylvania 2 815132 UG 12470 10000 10522 10286 10523 10765 11166 1.20 Pennsylvania 2 815136 UG 12470 10000 9857 9737 9374 10887 9801 -0.11 Pennsylvania 3 815123 UG 12470 10000 10659 11037 10281 10054 13551 4.92 Pennsylvania 3 815127 UG 12470 10000 10583 10428 12548 6290 10651 0.13 Pennsylvania 4 815134 UG 12470 10000 9827 10054 8240 8241 6190 -8.83 Pennsylvania 4 815138 UG 12470 10000 7681 7801 7439 8345 5998 -4.83 SW 64th Street 1 812921 OH 12470 10000 6985 7741 9676 9193 10525 8.55 SW 64th Street 1 812923 OH 12470 10000 10341 8799 8074 8345 10142 -0.39 SW 64th Street 2 812922 OH 12470 10000 10070 10160 9616 9979 10875 1.55 SW 64th Street 2 812924 OH 12470 10000 10039 9918 9737 10039 13816 6.60 TOTALS 159233 154335 151342 152179 168863 1.18 13
Typical Annual Area Planning Process A growth rate is determined by taking the peak kVA (or Amp) Kentucky 224 reading for each year and Load Growth Projection calculating a trend 9000 8500 8000 7500 kVA 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 14
Assess Weather Impacts Circuits 2002 Weather Pattern Forecasts 2002 2002 2002 Very Substation Ban Limit Capacity Peak Time Base Cooling Heating Extreme Extreme Name k # CCT # Device Voltage Limit 2002 Stamp Load Load Load Typical 1 in 4 yr 1 in 10 yr Kentucky 1 813221 OH 12470 10000 9865 8/21/02 18:00 2615 7250 0 11646 12430 14240 Kentucky 1 813223 OH 12470 10000 12784 8/22/02 17:00 4605 8179 0 14664 15225 17116 Kentucky 1 813225 OH 12470 10000 2955 8/26/02 17:00 2454 502 0 2986 2982 3013 Kentucky 2 813222 OH 12470 10000 10874 8/21/02 16:00 3295 7580 0 12575 13354 14712 Kentucky 2 813224 OH 12470 10000 8048 8/21/02 16:00 2857 5191 0 9407 9608 10908 Pennsylvania 1 815121 UG 12470 10000 10841 8/21/02 18:00 3446 7395 0 12409 13490 15242 Pennsylvania 1 815125 UG 12470 10000 10781 8/1/02 16:00 4107 6674 0 12596 13242 14898 Pennsylvania 2 815132 UG 12470 10000 11166 8/21/02 18:00 4652 6514 0 12427 13599 14529 Pennsylvania 2 815136 UG 12470 10000 9801 8/21/02 18:00 2726 7075 0 11071 12014 13536 Pennsylvania 3 815123 UG 12470 10000 13551 8/21/02 16:00 6123 7428 0 15683 15476 17637 Pennsylvania 3 815127 UG 12470 10000 10651 8/21/02 17:00 3806 6845 0 12319 13161 14560 Pennsylvania 4 815134 UG 12470 10000 6190 8/21/02 17:00:00 2298 3892 0 6816 7533 8055 Pennsylvania 4 815138 UG 12470 10000 5998 8/21/02 17:00 2213 3785 0 6878 7337 7964 SW 64th Street 1 812921 OH 12470 10000 10525 8/21/02 18:00 2719 7685 0 12329 13300 14928 SW 64th Street 1 812923 OH 12470 10000 10142 8/21/02 17:00 3188 7229 0 11616 12788 14223 SW 64th Street 2 812922 OH 12470 10000 10875 8/21/02 17:00 5282 6999 0 12162 13335 14332 SW 64th Street 2 812924 OH 12470 10000 13816 8/21/02 18:00 5239 10895 0 15322 17327 19273 TOTALS 168,863 61625 111118 0 192906 206201 229166 160,420 Coincident Loads at Area Peak 8/1/02 18:00 Timestamp of Coincident Peak 15
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