OMS Forecasting Workshop Tanya Paslawski & Marcus Hawkins May 22, 2018 Organization of MISO States
Organization of MISO States WHY ARE WE HERE?
There is a need to ensure planning processes at transmission and distribution system levels are in agreement
Many factors are leading to more resources that fall outside of the normal planning processes…
At the same time we have observed continued decreases in load forecasts Forecasted Average Annual Growth Rate in MISO 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Federal-level actions may require certain changes… • RM16-23: DER participation through aggregation in wholesale markets • Order 841: removing barriers to energy storage participation • NERC Technical Guideline on DER Modeling
Using the wrong forecasts can lead to planning the wrong system… MISO Footprint Load Forecasts by Year 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 12 GW 132,000 130,000 128,000 126,000 124,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
As a group of regulators, OMS has customers on the mind…
Organization of MISO States WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
A Snapshot of Forecasting in MISO MISO Utilities • LSEs provide 10 year demand • Recognize changes may be and energy forecasts needed, but cautious to alter current approach • DER primarily captured as a load reduction • Forecasts have been checked by ILF • Separate 3rd party studies for load and DERs • Uncertainty around MISO’s proposed changes • MISO seeking greater amounts of information from members • Working with regulators at different paces, for different purposes • BTMG assumptions
Data for tomorrow’s forecasts may not be collected today.
Question 4: Have you observed impacts from DER on the 2 3 transmission system? • Very few utilities have noticed impacts at transmission-system level • Those that have observed impacts indicated that they were minimal and easily managed • Only two stated that impacts were expected in the future 24 Impacts Observed No Impacts Expect Impacts
A broad geographic footprint has an equally broad approach to forecasting… • Many different state processes and LSE forecasting methods • Diverse sets of assumptions throughout footprint • Limited coordination with MISO’s third party studies
Workshop Goals • Understand current challenges and concerns Idea Idea • Identify spectrum of best practices Idea • Understand complex interplay of T-D systems Next Steps • At least one concrete step forward
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