‘ Conflict in South Asia: The LDC (Least Developed Country) Perspective’ Ranjini Basu Fayyaz Yaseen Barkha Sharda
INTRODUCTION Conflict can be understood as some form of friction, disagreement, or discord arising within a group when the beliefs or actions of one of more members of the group are either resisted by or unacceptable to one or more members of another group. Vulnerability according to ldc (least developed countries) is defined as the relative risk posed to a country‟s development by exogenous (external)shocks. Gardner (2005) summarizes four key variables which have been frequently mentioned in the literature: insecurity, inequality, private incentives and perceptions .
CONFLICT O Insecurity is a key variable in the presence of a security dilemma. The security dilemma refers to situations when conflict is a result of security-seeking behavior. The inability of the state to protect all groups within its borders spurs various groups to elevate the provision of security to a primary concern, and attempts to increase security by one group may decrease the perceived security of another group, often resulting in conflicts (Walter 1999; Snyder and Jervis 1999). O Inequality especially, „horizontal inequality‟ which is defined as differences or deprivation across recognizable groups in society. This type of inequality can be measured across political participation, economic endowment, human assets, social status etc. Although the existence of horizontal inequality does not always cause armed conflict, group inequalities underpin grievances that are important to mobilization for conflict (Stewart 2005).
• The political and economic incentives for potential leaders and potential followers are quite relevant in understanding conflict. Leaders may be motivated by political goals or economic gains. Those in power are likely to initiate conflict when they feel threatened, and those not in power use conflict to gain power. Followers can also have private incentives. Stewart (2005) describes how ethnicity and ideology are used by leaders pursuing political goals. • Perceptions are equally important in understanding conflict. The group identity and the degree of group cohesion are crucial in facilitating mobilization of rebel groups. Ethnic cleavages, divergence in religion, group inequalities and grievances can be created and magnified by perceptions through histories, fears and myths. Perceptions are used instrumentally to create or exacerbate other causes of conflict (Lake and Rothchild 1998).
COMMON MAN‟S UNDERSTANDING OF LDC CRITERION A country which has the lowest indicator of socio- economic development combined with the lowest human development indices ratings of all the countries in the world falls under the ldc category. The indicators are as follows- Poverty Human resource weakness based on health, education, adult literacy etc. Economic vulnerability (instability of agriculture and export of goods etc.)
IDENTIFICATION OF LDCS The three criteria for the identification of ldcs are: (i) Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, (ii) Human Asset Index (HAI); and (iii) Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). The HAI and EVI are composite indices of various indicators to measure the long-term structural weaknesses of these economies (United Nations 2008). Forty eight (48) ldcs have been identified across the world of which twenty three (23) fall under „conflict‟ ldcs. In South Asia, Bangladesh and Bhutan fall under non-conflict ldcs while Afghanistan and Nepal fall under the category of conflict ldcs.
HUMAN ASSET INDEX (HAI) INDICATORS The HAI is a combination of four indicators related both to the level of health and nutrition and to the level of education: (I) THE PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION THAT IS UNDERNOURISHED; (II) THE RATE OF MORTALITY FOR CHILDREN AGED FIVE YEARS AND UNDER; (III) THE GROSS SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT RATIO; (IV) THE ADULT LITERACY RATE. ALL FOUR INDICATORS CARRY EQUAL WEIGHT IN THE CALCULATION.
GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (GNI) It is the sum of a nation‟s gross domestic product (GDP) plus net income received from overseas. Gross national income (GNI) is defined as the sum of value added by all producers who are residents in a nation, plus any product taxes (minus subsidies) not included in output, plus income received from abroad such as employee compensation and property income. GNI measures income received by a country both domestically and from overseas.
COMPOSITION OF THE ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY INDEX (EVI) O SHOCK INDEX (1/2) O EXPOSURE INDEX(1/2) O SIZE SUB-INDEX (POPULATION) O TRADE SHOCK SUB- (1/8) INDEX (1/4) INSTABILITY O LOCATION SUB-INDEX OF EXPORTS OF GOODS (REMOTENESS) (1/8) AND SERVICES O EONOMIC STRUCTURESUB- INDEX (1/8) WHERE WE HAVE O NATURAL SHOCK SUB- MERCHANT EXPORT CONCERTATION (1/16) AND INDEX (1/4) VICTIMS OF SHARE OF AGRICULTURE, NATURAL DISASTERS (1/8) FORESTRY AND FISHERIES(1/16) AND INSTABILITY OF O ENVIRONMENT SUB-INDEX AGRICULTURAL (1/8) SHARE OF POPULATION IN LOW ELEVATED COASTAL PRODUCTION (1/8) ZONES * UNITED NATIONS 2011
O Why Does Conflict Arise?
Reasons behind conflicts O Conflicts are byproducts of insecurities O Unequal and unjust social structures O Economic un-equality O Social identity is threatened O Approach towards cultural/ethnic/linguistic/ racial/religious etc. differences O Competition for scarce resources (territory, land, water, oil, income, jobs etc.)
O People‟s unhappiness with the way they are governed – demand for independence, sovereignty O Enforcement of political and religious ideologies upon minorities O Geo-political interests and power blocks
Consequences of CONFLICTS: the LDC perspective “And to think that the cost of one AK-47 rifle is enough to buy vitamin A capsules that can prevent blindness of 3,000 one year olds; a 10 million worth of anti-personal landmine is enough to provide immunization to approximately 7.7 million children against 6 deadly childhood diseases; the cost of 23 fighter planes can provide for iodized salt for ten years to protect 1.6 billion people at risk of mental retardation due to iodine deficiency and the cost of 11 radar evading bombers is enough to provide 4 years of primary education to 135 million children who are not in school (Serrano 2008). ”
• Social Consequences Mortality levels- battle deaths & total deaths(malnutrition, starvation, crimes, disease) Legacy effects- conflicts cause disability, rise in disease burden Causes displacement Impact on women and children (research shows that conflict may not have an impact on education Human Security Report 2012)
• Economic consequences Economic decline Infrastructure Military spending Time horizons (short term goals, rather than long term goal meeting) Capital flights (investments move away from the conflict zones) Government short sighted policies, higher military expenditure, reduction in aide, reduction in tax revenue, all to an inflationary situation. (African Development Report 2008-09)
• In case of regional conflicts, regional cooperation in matters of trade and resource sharing comes to a halt, having an impact on the development of the region • Gross Human Rights violation • Impediment to human and economic growth • Barriers to service delivery. • Conflicts in general effect the security, justice and governance in the region.
Policy Recommendations • Ensuring security of the people. • Economic policies should be geared not just to maximise growth, but also to address the distributional or political factors that led to the conflict • Cross-border cooperation between countries should be an integral part of any strategy to reduce conflict • Talks with the insurgent groups. • Government should expand welfare programmes to reduce poverty in the conflict-affected areas as a means to undercutting the support for the insurgency. (Ghani &Iyer 2010)
References Serrano, Evelyn Balais. 2010. Global Conflicts, Human Rights Violations O and Social Work Action . Accessed at: http://www.cfess.org.br/pdf/evelyn_serrano.pdf African Development Report 2008-09 O Human Security Repost 2012 O Ghani, Ejaz & Lakshmi Iyer. 2010. Conflict & Development. Accessed at: O http://www.voxeu.org/article/conflict-and-development-lessons- south-asia
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