杜邦憲 Sam Dupont Senior Lecturer, Associate Professor Assistant Professor University of Hong Kong University of Gothenburg A taste of ocean acidification
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
Growth
CO 2 Symptoms Global warming Catastrophic events Ice melting Sea level rise Hypoxia Salinity changes Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is chemistry … CO 2 … not conjecture CO 2 + H 2 O H 2 CO 3 Carbon Carbonic Water dioxide acid
Ocean acidification is happening now Doney et al. (2009)
Fast and strong Ocean 2x more acidic by 2100
Ocean acidification is a real, fast and directly related to our CO 2 emissions
Last global event: the third extinction Extinction of 92% of all marine species
A little bit more chemistry CO 2 - -- HCO 3 CO 3 H O O + C C H O O O O H H O H 2 O H pH Sea water more acidic Sea water more corrosive Calcification? [CaCO 3 ] Decreased carbonate
Negative impact on calcifiers
Can lead to species extinction 8.1 7.9 (Dupont et al. 2008)
It is already happening Impact aquaculture and industry
The heart beat of ocean acidification 1998-2003: Clear and “simple!” -> Calcifiers Confidence Time
But … some calcifiers are winners
Challenge marine ecosystems 50% of marine animals threaten by ocean acidification (Wittmann & Pörtner 2013)
Ocean acidification is a real, fast and directly related to our CO 2 emissions Impact on marine species and ecosystems is certain but local impact is hard to predict
The heart beat of ocean acidification Confidence 2004-2010 More nuanced, conflicting results Time
pH vary in space and time Open ocean Coastal environment
Extreme for an organism is home for another pH 5.36, ara=0.01 (Tunnicliffe et al. 2009)
Stress ecology - niche (Van Straalen 2007) Need to understand the biology of your species
Proof of concept
Proof of concept The more you deviate from natural variability, the stronger the impact
The heart beat of ocean acidification Confidence Since 2012 Better understanding Time We know what we don’t know
Well, biology is complicated … … and will always be limiting Riebesell and Gattuso (2015) Nature Climate Change
Ocean acidification is a real, fast and directly related to our CO 2 emissions Impact on marine species and ecosystems is certain but local impact is hard to predict But… we start to develop the needed theoretical framework
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
What can we do?
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
Mitigation
A problem of scale GLOBAL challenges GLOBAL options: CO 2 GLOBAL/LOCAL data
Scientists are “virtually certain” that global changes will lead to dramatic consequences
Mitigation: We know what to do Demography CO 2 emissions Carbon capture WHY NO MORE ACTIONS???
Mitigation What need to be done? Policy Change Citizen Acceptance What science is needed?
Acceptance is key
Not a hobby… a real research topic Social dilemna: Action, acceptance and compliance linked to psychological factors, values, beliefs, norms, policy-specific beliefs, freedom, fairness, effectiveness, personal outcome, trust and reciprocity, etc.
A failure to communicate? The idea that (...) the science of anthropogenic global warming is controversial is a powerful indicator of the extent of our failure to communicate. Tim Minchin What we have here is a failure to communicate Jules Winnfield
A failure to communicate? Scientists can be poor communicators … … and nerds
Efficient communication … … a need for a new strategy Science supply paradigm
Efficient communication … … a need for a new strategy Information [e.g. Global changes] Needed Change More polarization [e.g. cut carbon dioxide emission] (Dupont & Fauville 2017)
What information leads to change?
Visible vs. Invisible CO 2
Bohuslan seafood Hypothesis: By targetting values, we’ll attract more attention
Can you taste ocean acidification (make invisible visible)
Yes, you can
Press release Ocean acidification can alter the taste of shrimps “Ocean acidification is often referred as the silent storm because you can’t see it, you can’t hear it, and you can’t smell it, but our research suggests that you just may be able to taste it.”
A scientific and popular impact
Evaluating the engagement Values and physical connection leads to real changes
We have enough data to be virtually certain that ocean acidification will have negative consequences BUT We need science targeting local values to truly drive change and acceptance
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
A problem of scale GLOBAL challenges GLOBAL options: CO 2 GLOBAL/LOCAL data LOCAL challenges LOCAL options [management, adaptation, etc.] LOCAL data
Adaptation: Buy some time Change practices (e.g. aquaculture) Make ecosystem more resilients (e.g. MPA) Decrease other sources of stress (e.g. pollution) Select resilient strains Protect hot spots etc.
What do we know? e.g. Chemistry Responses No data centre No reply No data 1 carbonate 2 chemistry 3 parameters 4 Survey in February/March 2018 Figure 1. Map illustrating the answers received from NODCs and ADUs regarding the availability of data describing the carbonate system (pH, TA, DIC, CO 2 ; light grey – no IODE focal point for NODC or ADU, dark grey – no reply, blue – no data, yellow – data for one parameter, orange – data for two parameters, light green – data for three parameters, dark green – data for four parameters).
Gap… capacity
Phase I – basic trainings 2014 – Brazil, Chile 2015 – China, South Africa 2016 – Mozambique, Tasmania, Mauritius, Mexico 2017 – Senegal, Kuwait, Mauritius, Fiji, Costa Rica Challenges identified
Reality check Build a ”kit” for less than 15K$ to monitor and research
Evaluating capacity
Assessing capacities I – Basic training (theory + practicals) II – Basic training (practicals) STRATEGY III – Advanced training (practicals) IV – Collaborative Research
Level I training, e.g. Jordan, September 2018
Level II training, e.g. Kuwait November 2018 Radioecology
Level III training, e.g. South Africa May 2019 WIOMSA – Ocean Acidification measurements in the Western Indian Ocean Chemistry Set-up long term experiment Doing science with limited infrastructure
Data collected in 5 days with limited resources Article in progress Next training: Mombasa, October 2019
Level IV Collaborative research; e.g. CRP IAEA CRP (2018-2022): Evaluating the Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Seafood - A Global Approach Next training: Sweden, August 2019
Where help is provided
Success stories 2016 – First contact in Mauritius (Basic Training) 2016 – Join P2P program (with Sam Dupont) Carla Edworthy 2016 – Training on Evolution and Global Changes in Sweden 2017 – PhD student 2018 – Training on OA-Biology in Sweden (Advanced Training) 2019 – Presentation of first results at GOA-ON Workshop 2019 – Training Assistant in Durban (Advanced training)
Local solutions can be developed (adaptation) but often data are lacking and capacity development is key
On the menu today o Why shall we care about Ocean Acidification? o What can we do about it & what is needed? o Mitigation & Communication o Adaptation & Building capacity Conclusions – science for society o
Anthropocene Global increase of human population and a high CO 2 world - Global warming - Ocean acidification - Hypoxia - Increased precipitation - Increased catastrophic events Local impacts including: - habitat destruction - over-exploitation of resources - local pollution - Introduction of species - etc. Zalasiewicz et al. 2008
Identify science priorities
Identify science priorities Need to prioritize your drivers
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