2014 Midterm Elections: Impact on Regional Development Organizations and Local Governments November 12, 2014
Presentation Overview Election trends: what happened? Senate races; key committees House races; key committees Governor races; state legislatures What’s next for the new Congress and beyond
2014 Elections: What Was At Stake? 36 Senate Seats 435 House Seats 36 Governor Races
Outside Election Spending
What Happened? Democratic Losses Democrats defended a number of seats they won in red states in 2008 Many senior Democratic Senators in red states retired 6-Year Itch of the Obama Administration Midterm Falloff Democratic voting blocs (minorities and younger voters) tend not to vote in midterm elections Map Source: Mother Jones and Q.E.D.
What Happened? Voter Trends Percent Change from 2012 Source: New York Times 2014 Exit Polls
What Happened? Low Voter Turnout 36.6% national voter turnout in 2014 40.9% in 2010 midterm elections Map Source: New York Times
2014 Senate Elections: What Happened? Democrats lost 6 of the 7 seats in states won by Romney in 2012: AK, AR, MT, NC, SD, WV Republicans also captured seats in states won by Obama in 2012: IA, CO Republicans held 3 at risk seats: KY, KS, GA Close calls in 2 Obama states: VA, NH
U.S. Senate Results G
U.S. Senate: The New Numbers New Senate Old Senate Democrats: 55 * Democrats: 46* Republicans: 53 Republicans: 45 OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE *Includes 2 *Includes 2 Independents Independents 1 undecided race
U.S. Senate Overview WA Party ME MT VT ND OR MN Breakdown: NH ID SD NY WI MA 46 Ds* RI WY MI CT PA IA NE NJ NV 53 Rs OH UT IN IL DE CO CA MD WV VA • Includes 2 I’s KS MO KY OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE NC TN AZ OK • 1 undecided race AR NM SC • LA runoff: Dec. 6 MS AL GA TX LA AK FL HI Dan Sullivan (R) wins Mark Warner (D) holds Senate race in AK Senate seat in VA Map source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
New U.S. Senators New Democratic Senate Members - Including Open Seats (5) Gary Peters (MI) * No new pick-ups New Republican Senate Members - Including Open Seats (3) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Thom Tills (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Cory Gardner (CO), Tom Cotton (AR), Mike Rounds (SD), Dan Sullivan (AK) * 8 Pickups
U.S. Senate Leadership: Republican Control REPUBLICANS Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Majority Whip: John Cornyn (R-TX) Republican Conference Secretary: John Thune (R-SD) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE DEMOCRATS Minority Leader: Harry Reid (D-NV) Minority Whip: Dick Durbin (D-IL) Democratic Conference Secretary: Patty Murray (D-WA )
U.S. Senate Committee Leadership Agriculture Pat Roberts (KS) Appropriations Thad Cochran (MS) Banking Richard Shelby (AL) Budget Jeff Sessions (AL) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE EPW Jim Inhofe (OK) Finance Orrin Hatch (UT) Small Business James Risch (ID)
U.S. Senate Committee Changes G
Senate Appropriations Full Committee Democrats Republicans Barbara Mikulski (MD), Richard Shelby (AL), Ranking outgoing Chair Thad Cochran (MS)*likely Chair Patrick Leahy (VT) Mitch McConnell (KY) Tom Harkin (IA) Lamar Alexander (TN) Patty Murray (WA) Susan Collins (ME) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Richard Durbin (IL) Lindsey Graham (SC) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Tim Johnson (SD) Mark Kirk (IL) Mary Landrieu Dan Coats (IN) (LA)*undecided Roy Blunt (MO) Jack Reed (RI) Jerry Moran (KS) Mark Pryor (AR) John Hoeven (ND) Key Issues Jon Tester (MT) Mike Johanns (NE) • 12 annual federal Tom Udall (NM) John Boozman (AR) spending bills containing Jeanne Shaheen (NH) more than $497 billion Jeff Merkley (OR) in discretionary Mark Begich (AK) programs Chris Coons (DE)
Senate Appropriations CJS Subcommittee Democrats Republicans Barbara Mikulski (MD), Richard Shelby (AL), outgoing Chair Ranking Patrick Leahy (VT) Mitch McConnell (KY) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Lamar Alexander (TN) Jack Reed (RI) Susan Collins (ME) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Mark Pryor (AR) Mary Landrieu (LA)*undecided OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Lindsey Graham (SC) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Mark Kirk (IL) Jeff Merkley (OR) John Boozman (AR) Chris Coons (DE) Key Issues • EDA funding • Census funding • Local law enforcement funding
Senate Appropriations T-HUD Subcommittee Democrats Republicans Susan Collins (ME), Ranking Patty Murray (WA), outgoing Richard Shelby (AL) Chair Lamar Alexander (TN) Barbara Mikulski (MD) Lindsey Graham (SC) Richard Durbin (IL) Mark Kirk (IL) Patrick Leahy (VT) Dan Coats (IN) Tom Harkin (IA) Roy Blunt (MO) Dianne Feinstein (CA) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Jerry Moran (KS) Tim Johnson (SD) John Boozman (AR) Mark Pryor (AR) Jack Reed (RI) Tom Udall (NM) Key Issues • Transportation funding • HUD-CDBG funding
Senate Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee Democrats Republicans Mark Pryor (AR), Chair Roy Blunt (MO), Ranking Tom Harkin (IA) Thad Cochran (MS) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Mitch McConnell (KY) Tim Johnson (SD) Susan Collins (ME) Jon Tester (MT)*likely Jerry Moran (KS) Ranking John Hoeven (ND) Tom Udall (NM) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Jeff Merkley (OR) Key Issues • Rural Development funding
Senate Appropriations Labor-HHS Subcommittee Democrats Republicans Tom Harkin, (IA), Chair Jerry Moran (KS), Ranking Patty Murray (WA)*likely Thad Cochran (MS) ranking Richard Shelby (AL) Mary Landrieu (LA) Lamar Alexander (TN) Richard Durbin (IL) Lindsey Graham (SC) Jack Reed (RI) Mark Kirk (IL) Mark Pryor (AR) Mike Johanns (NE) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Barbra Mikulski (MD) John Boozman (AR) Jon Tester (MT) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Jeff Merkley (OR) Key Issues • Aging program funding • Workforce funding
Senate Appropriations Energy-Water Subcommittee Democrats Republicans Dianne Feinstein (CA), Lamar Alexander (TN), Ranking outgoing Chair Thad Cochran (MS) Patty Murray (WA) Mitch McConnell (KY) Tim Johnson (SD) Richard Shelby (AL) Mary Landrieu (LA) Susan Collins (ME) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Tom Harkin (IA) Jon Tester (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Richard Durbin (IL) John Hoeven (ND) Tom Udall (NM) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Key Issues • ARC • DRA • Denali Commission • Corp of Engineers
Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Democrats Republicans Barbara Boxer (CA), outgoing David Vitter (LA), Ranking Chair James Inhofe (OK)*likely Chair Thomas Carper (DE) John Barrasso (WY) Benjamin Cardin (MD) Jeff Sessions (AL) Bernard Sanders (I-VT) Mike Crapo (ID) Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Roger Wicker (MS) Tom Udall (NM) John Boozman (AR) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Jeff Merkley (OR) Deb Fischer (NE) Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) Cory Booker (NJ) Edward Markey (MA) Key Issues • EDA reauthorization • MAP-21 reauthorization • Federal-state regional commissions reauthorization
Senate Committee on Housing, Banking, and Urban Affairs Democrats Republicans Tim Johnson (SD), Chair Mike Crapo (ID), Ranking Jack Reed (RI) Richard Shelby (AL)*likely Chair Charles Schumer (NY) Bob Corker (TN) Robert Menendez (NJ) David Vitter (LA) Sherrod Brown (OH)*likely Mike Johanns (NE) ranking Patrick Toomey (PA) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Jon Tester (MT) Mark Kirk (IL) Mark Warner (VA) Jerry Moran (KS) Jeff Merkley (OR) Tom Coburn (OK) Kay Hagan (NC) Dean Heller (NV) Joe Manchin (WV) Key Issues Elizabeth Warren (MA) • HUD-CDBG Heidi Heikamp (ND) authorization • CDFI authorization • HUD Planning programs • Transit programs
Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Republicans Democrats Thad Cochran (MS), Ranking Debbie Stabenow (MI), Mitch McConnell (KY) outgoing Chair Pat Roberts (KS)*likely Chair Patrick Leahy (VT) Saxby Chambliss (GA) Tom Harkin (IA) John Boozman (AR) Sherrod Brown (OH) John Hoeven (ND) Amy Klobuchar (MN) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Mike Johanns (NE) Michael Bennet (CO) Charles Grassley (IA) Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) John Thune (SD) Joe Donnelly (IN) Heidi Heikamp (ND) Bob Casey (PA) John Walsh (MT) Key Issues • Farm Bill reauthorization • Rural Development • Rural broadband
Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee Republicans Democrats Lamar Alexander (TN) Tom Harkin (IA), Chair Mike Enzi (WY)*likely Chair Barbra Mikulski (MD) Richard Burr (NC) Patty Murray (WA) Johnny Isakson (GA) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Rand Paul (KY) Bob Casey (PA) Orrin Hatch (UT) Kay Hagan (NC) OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Pat Roberts (KS) Al Franken (MN) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Michael Bennet (CO) Mark Kirk (IL) Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) Tim Scott (SC) Tammy Baldwin (WI) Chris Murphy (CT) Elizabeth Warren (MA) Key Issues • Workforce • Older Americans Act reauthorization
U.S. House Results G
U.S. House Results OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Democratic Gain Democratic Hold Republican Gain Republican Hold Undecided* Map source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
U.S. House: The New Numbers New House Old House Magic Number = 218 Republicans: 243 Republicans: 233 OVERVIEW: U.S. SENATE Democrats: 178 Democrats: 199 Undecided: 14 Vacant: 3
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