Northwest Independent School District Quarterly Report 3Q19 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Northwest Independent School District Quarterly Report 3Q19

Enrollment History % Year (Oct.) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Growth 108 225 1,541 1,662 1,674 1,650 1,674 1,664 1,626 1,595 1,577 1,765 1,622 1,398 1,195 2015/16 20,976 124 235 1,622 1,621 1,736 1,714 1,783 1,727 1,747 1,725 1,658 1,727 1,778 1,546 1,300 2016/17 22,043 1,067 5.1% 159 287 1,753 1,709 1,705 1,822 1,814 1,882 1,813 1,782 1,784 1,802 1,763 1,665 1,402 2017/18 23,142 1,099 5.0% 172 335 1,792 1,814 1,808 1,803 1,861 1,911 1,942 1,883 1,822 1,952 1,829 1,617 1,579 2018/19 24,120 978 4.2% 168 378 1,786 1,890 1,950 1,896 1,926 1,959 1,966 2,011 1,925 2,004 1,924 1,727 1,505 25, 092 2019/20 972 4.0% Northwest ISD Historical Enrollment 30,000 25,000 TOTAL ENROLLMENT 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Total Enrollment 2

Annual Enrollment Change % Year (Oct.) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Growth 2015/16 108 225 1,541 1,662 1,674 1,650 1,674 1,664 1,626 1,595 1,577 1,765 1,622 1,398 1,195 20,976 2016/17 124 235 1,622 1,621 1,736 1,714 1,783 1,727 1,747 1,725 1,658 1,727 1,778 1,546 1,300 22,043 1,067 5.1% 2017/18 159 287 1,753 1,709 1,705 1,822 1,814 1,882 1,813 1,782 1,784 1,802 1,763 1,665 1,402 23,142 1,099 5.0% 2018/19 172 335 1,792 1,814 1,808 1,803 1,861 1,911 1,942 1,883 1,822 1,952 1,829 1,617 1,579 24,120 978 4.2% 2019/20 168 378 1,786 1,890 1,950 1,896 1,926 1,959 1,966 2,011 1,925 2,004 1,924 1,727 1,505 25,092 972 4.0% EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total % 2019/20 Difference 172 335 1,925 1,905 1,922 1,912 1,897 1,967 1,991 2,007 1,945 2,040 1,993 1,697 1,547 Proj. 25,263 -4 43 -139 -15 28 -16 29 -8 -25 4 -20 -36 -69 30 -42 -248 -1.0% Year EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th ELEM MID HIGH 3-Yr average 1.114 1.172 1.033 1.048 1.062 1.052 1.049 1.054 1.037 1.031 1.026 1.094 1.007 0.933 0.929 1.050 1.032 0.991 2016/17 1.148 1.044 1.053 1.052 1.045 1.024 1.081 1.032 1.050 1.061 1.039 1.095 1.007 0.953 0.930 1.048 1.050 0.996 2017/18 1.282 1.221 1.081 1.054 1.052 1.050 1.058 1.056 1.050 1.020 1.034 1.087 1.021 0.936 0.907 1.058 1.035 0.988 2018/19 1.082 1.167 1.022 1.035 1.058 1.057 1.021 1.053 1.032 1.039 1.022 1.094 1.015 0.917 0.948 1.041 1.031 0.994 2019/20 0.977 1.128 0.997 1.055 1.075 1.049 1.068 1.053 1.029 1.036 1.022 1.100 0.986 0.944 0.931 1.049 1.029 0.990 • Northwest ISD added 895 students this fall for a 3.7% growth rate • NISD had a historically low KG cohort for a flattening of the KG class from 2018/19 to 2019/20 The district had high cohorts in 2 nd and 9 th grades • 3

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (Sept 2019) 2.9% 33,675 480 more 111,309 new jobs Unemployment starts than 3Q18 National rate 1.4% Rate Annual Job Growth U.S. 3.3% Home Starts Texas 3.3% DFW MSA 2.7% Fort Worth 3.2% -0.3% 4

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q19 Annual Annual Rank District Name Starts Closings VDL Futures 1 Prosper ISD 2,361 2,771 4,216 21,262 2 Denton ISD 2,380 2,279 4,986 18,777 3 Frisco ISD 2,093 2,153 4,133 4,470 4 Northwest ISD* 1,972 1,792 3,461 39,929 5 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 1,750 1,647 1,914 19,741 6 Dallas ISD 1,667 1,517 1,973 5,655 7 Little Elm ISD 1,067 1,334 1,188 2,181 8 Lewisville ISD 1,151 1,255 1,908 3,124 9 Forney ISD 1,260 1,103 2,253 27,579 10 Crowley ISD 1,010 968 1,247 16,829 11 Mansfield ISD 929 967 1,181 7,288 12 Rockwall ISD 827 847 2,494 9,367 13 Royse City ISD 742 783 1,372 12,958 14 Wylie ISD 613 776 765 3,881 15 McKinney ISD 816 771 2,081 9,063 16 Princeton ISD 545 692 1,025 7,984 17 Melissa ISD 629 673 752 5,455 18 Fort Worth ISD 726 667 1,337 5,474 19 Allen ISD 554 663 1,139 1,023 20 Midlothian ISD 591 643 1,292 19,171 *Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff 5

Annual Closing Distribution Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q19 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Closings Closings VDL Future 1 HAWTHORNE MEADOWS 252 46 147 0 CHAMPIONS CIRCLE/OAK CREEK 2 TRAILS 240 80 1 0 3 Sendera Ranch East 189 60 157 1138 4 HARVEST MEADOWS (NISD) 168 40 83 207 5 CANYON FALLS (NORTHLAKE) 128 49 306 369 6 WELLINGTON (FT. WORTH) 107 39 398 1077 7 FAIRWAY RANCH 98 22 86 0 8 WILLOW RIDGE ESTATES (FT. WORTH) 98 26 170 102 9 WATER'S BEND NORTH 67 23 57 227 10 TIMBERBROOK (JUSTIN) 64 25 88 1338 TOTALS 1,411 410 1,493 4,458 6

VDL Distribution Top 10 Subdivisions -3Q19 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Closings Closings VDL Future 1 PECAN SQUARE 0 0 587 2,749 2 WELLINGTON (FT. WORTH) 107 39 398 1,077 3 CANYON FALLS (NORTHLAKE) 128 49 306 369 4 BERKSHIRE 51 1 237 461 WILLOW RIDGE ESTATES (FT. 5 WORTH) 98 26 170 102 6 SEVENTEEN LAKES 32 13 159 0 7 Sendera Ranch East 189 60 157 1,138 8 HAWTHORNE MEADOWS 252 46 147 0 9 FALCON RIDGE (DENTON CO) 0 0 130 0 10 CARAWAY 10 7 119 152 TOTALS 867 241 2,410 6,048 7

Futures Distribution Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q19 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Rolling V Ranch 0 0 5,000 2 Rolling V Ranch (Prairie View) 0 0 5,000 3 SENDERA RANCH 2 15 3,587 4 Bluebonnet Ranch 0 0 3,300 5 ELIZABETH CREEK AT ALPHA RANCH 0 0 3,000 6 PECAN SQUARE 0 587 2,749 7 NORTHSTAR 0 0 2,124 8 TIMBERBROOK (JUSTIN) 64 88 1,338 9 TRAILS OF ELIZABETH CREEK 0 0 1,211 10 BONDS RANCH 0 0 1,179 TOTALS 66 690 28,488 8

New Housing Activity by Elementary Zone Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Under Vacant Dev. Elementary Zone Starts Starts Closings Closings Construction Inventory Lots Future Lots BECK 21 5 28 8 7 13 45 0 CLARA LOVE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,520 COX 207 98 158 46 117 149 314 0 CURTIS 172 20 364 51 21 46 384 461 GRANGER 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 HASLET 99 29 48 19 37 69 326 4,651 HATFIELD 232 10 240 80 12 49 6 1,211 HUGHES 0 0 10 3 0 0 0 0 JUSTIN 198 62 126 43 84 109 410 1,634 LAKEVIEW 9 2 7 4 6 6 0 39 LANCE THOMPSON 409 207 329 104 171 275 1,099 4,052 NANCE 98 26 76 26 50 74 64 660 PETERSON 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 PRAIRIE VIEW 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 9,383 ROANOKE 7 1 6 4 1 3 43 8 SCHLUTER 264 75 206 65 84 136 572 2,505 SENDERA RANCH 0 0 2 0 0 4 15 3,587 SEVEN HILLS 0 0 2 0 0 0 20 6,080 JC THOMPSON 256 72 189 60 70 138 157 1,138 Grand Total 1,972 607 1,792 513 660 1,072 3,461 39,929 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 9

District Housing Overview • The district has more than 3,400 lots available to build on • Within NISD there are more than 39,000 planned future lots • Of those, groundwork is underway on more than 3,900 lots within NISD 10

Multi-Family Housing Overview • Within the district there are about 2,100 multi-family units that are nearing completion • Within NISD there are roughly 4,400 future multi-family units in the planning stages 11

Forecasted NISD New Home Activity Forecasted NISD New Home Activity Projected 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Northwest ISD is forecasted to close roughly 2,200 - 2,300 new homes annually for the next 3-5 years 12

5 Year Change in Residential Units by Planning Area Total Change in Elementary Zone Residential Units 2019/20- 2024/25 HASLET 2,417 LANCE 1,942 HATFIELD 1,901 CURTIS 1,837 SCHLUTER 1,691 JUSTIN 1,286 THOMPSON 951 COX 946 CLARA LOVE 817 HUGHES 622 PRAIRIE VIEW 621 LAKEVIEW 540 NANCE 495 SEVEN HILLS 240 ROANOKE 144 BECK 71 SENDERA RANCH 25 PETERSON 3 GRANGER 0 TOTAL 16,549 13

Total Residential Units by Elementary Zone, 2019/20 – 2024/25 Total Residential Units by Zone 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Current Residential Units Additional Residential Units- 5 Years 14

District Yields Single Family Yield Multi-Family Yield 0.603 0.223 NISD Student Yield by Housing Type 0.7 0.612 0.610 0.609 0.605 0.603 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.243 0.233 0.232 0.223 0.214 0.2 0.1 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Multi-Family Yield Single Family Yield 15

Newcomer and Leaver Analysis Newcomers and Leavers +535 +455 +543 3,000 +552 +671 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,757 2,214 2,312 2,386 2,847 2,841 2,597 2,581 1,910 2,045 1,000 500 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Newcomers Leavers 16