North Monterey County Water Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Total Water Managem ent Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future U.S. Bureau of Reclamation North Monterey County Drought Contingency Plan December 6, 2018
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Agenda U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Overview of Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) development steps and elements • Participating Local Agencies • Drought Monitoring • Vulnerability Assessment • Regional Drought Response Actions • Regional Drought Mitigation Measures • DCP Implementation: Near-term Projects and Operational and Administrative Framework • Final Steps
North Monterey County Water Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Total Water Managem ent Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Overview of Drought Contingency Plan Development Steps and Elements
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District DCP Drivers U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Over drafted groundwater basins • Seawater intrusion • Fourth year of drought in 2016 • State-mandated actions required to support sustainable groundwater use Figure 1-2. U.S. Drought Monitor for May 26, 2015
Monterey Peninsula Water Overview of Drought Contingency Plan Management District Elements (Figure 1-4) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Reclamation defined six DCP elements F
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District DCP Development Steps U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Detailed Work Plan • Communication and Outreach Plan • Agency and Stakeholder engagement • 5 Workshops • Coordination with Salinas and Carmel Rivers Basin Study (SCRBS) • Longer-term study process • Larger regional area • Developing new modeling and information • Formulating and evaluating new drought mitigation measures, will expand upon DCP
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Agency and Stakeholder Engagement U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • February 2016 – Kickoff meeting to introduce DCP and Task Force, describe DCP integration with other regional water supply investigations, introduce SCRBS • August 2016 – Discuss linkages between the DCP and the SCRBS, data needs and initial data gathering • October 2017 - Joint DCP/SCRBS workshop to review system interconnectedness schematics, data compiled to date, Urban Water Management Plans, preliminary drought mitigation measures, and response actions • May 2018 – Joint DCP/SCRBS workshop to review the vulnerability assessment and drought mitigation measures • August 2018 – Reviewed drought mitigation measures screening, drought response actions, and operational and administrative framework to support ongoing DCP efforts
North Monterey County Water Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Total Water Managem ent Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Participating Local Agencies
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Participating Local Agencies U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • California Water Service • Alisal Water Company Company • Castroville Community • Monterey County Water Services District Resources Agency/Castroville Seawater Intrusion Project • Marina Coast Water District • Monterey One Water • Monterey Peninsula Water • California American Water Management District Company
Drought Contingency Plan Area (Figure 1-1) Note: Project scope is to address the water agencies service areas. Groundwater basins shown on this figure are for reference only.
Monterey Peninsula Water Schematic of Existing Water Supplies Management District (Figure 2-1) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Monterey Peninsula Water Historical and Future Potable Demands and Management District Population (Figure 2-4) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • UWMPs projected water demand to increase 47% from 2015 to 2035 and population to increase 65% • AMBAG population projection is about 10% lower than UWMP forecasts
North Monterey County Water Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Total Water Managem ent Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Drought Monitoring
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Drought Monitoring U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Local agencies conduct local water supply monitoring measuring groundwater levels – seawater intrusion – Precipitation – reservoir releases – • Local agencies measure monthly consumption, well depth, and production • SVGB agricultural, urban, and industrial well extractions reported to MCWRA as part of the Monterey County Groundwater Management Plan • MPWMD determines water year type for the Carmel River based on unimpaired streamflow will declare a “drought” when there are two “dry” or “critically – dry” years in a row Figure 3-1. MCWRA’s Monthly Monitoring Wells in the SVGB
North Monterey County Water Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Total Water Managem ent Evaluating Options for a Reliable Water Future U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Vulnerability Assessment
Monterey Peninsula Water Supply and Demand Comparison – Management District 2020 Future Condition (Figure 4-1) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Total demand 62,528 AFY • 55 to 60% of supply is from Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin • Enough supply to meet 2020 demands Source: Agencies 2015 UWMPs and input from local agencies.
Monterey Peninsula Water Supply and Demand Comparison – Management District 2035 Future Condition (Figure 4-2) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Total demand 78,179 AF • 50 to 60 % of supply from Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin • Supply shortfall in all year types without ocean desal • Assumes MPWSP and MCWD ocean desal plant expansion are about 10% of supply Source: Agencies 2015 UWMPs and input from local agencies.
Potential Impact of Sustainable Groundwater Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Management Act (SGMA) on Groundwater Supply (Table 4-3) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 90,000 Deficit Demand Deficit 80,000 Deficit 70,000 Total Water Supplies (AFY) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year 5% SVGB reduction 10% SVGB reduction 15% SVGB reduction 20% SVGB reduction Demand
Monterey Peninsula Water Vulnerability Assessment Evaluates Risk and Management District Impacts of Drought U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • Risk = Likelihood of reduced supply x Consequence of reduced supply – Likelihood – qualitative score based on uncertainty factors that contribute to reduced supply LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE – Consequence – quantitative score based significance of supply source • Risk results indicate the supplies on which drought mitigation measures should focus • Risk is used to analyze how drought mitigation measures will reduce regional vulnerability to drought CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE
Monterey Peninsula Water Likelihood - Uncertainty Factors Contributing Management District to Loss/ reduction of Water Supplies U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Uncertainty factors described and scored 1 to 5 for each water supply (Table 4-4) • Climate change – altered/extreme precipitation patterns, more frequent/severe droughts, higher water temperatures • Infrastructure susceptibility and dry year supply limitations – Seismic risks, varies by agency, subsidence • Regulatory, environmental, and water rights constraints – Changes in water rights, in-stream/downstream flow requirements, more stringent water quality regulations, impacts of SGMA, rights to wastewater effluent • Cost constraints and affordability – rising costs for infrastructure improvements, pumping costs, costly fisheries projects, increasing treatment requirements • Source water quality degradation – Saltwater intrusion, algae by-products, salinity and nutrients, constituents of concern
Monterey Peninsula Water Consequence - Significance of Supply Sources by Agency Management District – 2035 Third Consecutive Drought Year (Figure 4-4) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Dependence on SVGB supply (57% of region) Cal-Am supply portfolio
Monterey Peninsula Water Risk Matrix - 20 35 third consecutive Management District drought year (Figure 4-5) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • SVGB supply has highest consequence of failure • Drought Uncertainty factor score mitigation of 3 measures should - Climate change - Regulatory constraints focus on reducing 57% of regional (i.e. SGMA) consequence supply is SVGB - Costs constraints supply and/or reducing - Water quality likelihood 57%
Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Impacts of Drought Across Sectors (Table 4-5) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Environmental Local Business (Fish/Wildlife) Public Health Agriculture Residential Recreation Potential Drought Impact Tourism Energy Increased water temperatures X X Increased nutrient levels, harmful algal blooms X X X X X Increased salinity in water and soil X X X X Reduced reservoir levels X X X X X X X Reduced stream flow X X X X X X X X Reduced groundwater supply X X X X X X New development limitations/moratorium X X Loss of vegetation, wetlands, crops X X X X X X Air quality degradation X X X X X Land subsidence X X X X Increased soil erosion X X X X X X X Increased evapotranspiration X X X X X More frequent and intense wildfires X X X X X X X
Recommend
More recommend
