Joint Briefing Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan June 28, 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Joint Briefing Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan June 28, 2018 To submit a handwritten question: 1. Get a blue card from ADWR or CAP staff 2. Complete and return to ADWR or CAP staff prior to break To submit a question via text: 1. Text AZDCP to 22333 2. Reply to the automated text with your question To submit a question online: 1. Go to PollEV.com/AZDCP 2. Enter your name and submit your question For Wi-Fi Access: 1. Join the Copper network 2. User Name: Guest (case sensitive) 3. Password: SedonaSharks84

Arizona Department of Water Resources and Central Arizona Project Joint Briefing Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan June 28, 2018 Process Overview Colorado River: Current Hydrology and Hydrologic Risk to System Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan: Review of Key Terms Colorado River System Response Effects of the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan to Arizona Water Users Break Outline of Process for Stakeholder Engagement and Next Steps Questions and Answers

Colorado River System • Provides water to seven US states and two Mexican states • Supplies water for ~40 Million people • Supplies water to over 5 million acres of agricultural production • Capacity to store four years of annual average inflow • Capacity to generate more than 4,200 megawatts of hydropower

Lake Powell and Lake Mead Combined Storage 60 60 Combined maximum capacity 50 50 Reservoir Storage (million acre-feet) 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 Lake Mead Storage Lake Powell Storage 4

Colorado River: Current Hydrology and Hydrologic Risks to the System Arizona Workshop – Drought Contingency Plan June 28, 2018 Phoenix, Arizona

Upper Colorado River Basin Water Year 2018 Snowpack and Forecasted Inflow Colorado River Basin Above Lake Powell 24 150 PAST FUTURE Seasonal snowpack for 2018 22 peaked at 73% of median on March 30 20 125 Water Year 2018 18 Snow Water Equivalent (inches) Percent of Seasonal Median 16 100 Forecasted 14 Unregulated 12 75 Inflow 10 (as of 6/18/18) 8 50 6 47% of average 4 25 2 0 0 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep Median: WY 1981 - 2010 Previous Water Year: 2017 Current Water Year: 2018 6

1981 – 2010 unregulated flow average 7

Colorado River Basin Storage (as of June 25, 2018) Storage Percent Elevation Reservoir Full (Feet) (MAF) Lake Powell 53% 12.81 3,611 Lake Mead 38% 9.80 1,077 Total System 51% 30.53 NA Storage * *Total system storage was 56% or 33.56 maf this time last year 8

Lake Mead End-of-Calendar Year Elevation Powell WY Release (maf) 8.23 8.98 8.24 8.24 12.52 9.47 8.23 7.48 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 End of calendar year 2018 balances of U.S. ICS and Mexico’s Water Reserve, system conservation water, and other voluntary contributions to Lake Mead are provisional and subject to change. 9

Natural Flow Colorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizona Water Year 1906 to 2018 30 30 Long-term running average (1906 – 2018 average = 14.8 MAF) 1988 – 2015 (“stress test” hydrology) average = 13.2 MAF 10-yr moving average 25 25 20 20 Annual Flow (MAF) 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Calendar Year Estimated values for 2016-2018 Provisional data, subject to change 10

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' Surplus Conditions 1,150' Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,000' 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 11 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' Surplus Conditions 1,150' Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,000' 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 7 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' Surplus Conditions 1,150' Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Median “Full” Hydrology Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,000' 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 7 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' Surplus Conditions 1,150' Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Median “Full” Hydrology Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Median Level 3 Shortage Condition “Stress Test” Hydrology 1,000' 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 7 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' 10 th – 90 th Surplus Conditions Percentile 1,150' “Full” Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Hydrology Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Median “Full” Hydrology Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Median Level 3 Shortage Condition “Stress Test” Hydrology 1,000' 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 7 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.

Historical and Future Projected Lake Mead End-of-December Elevations 1,250' Historical Elevations 1,200' 10 th – 90 th Surplus Conditions Percentile 1,150' “Full” Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions Hydrology Median “2007 Projections” 1,100' Median “Full” Hydrology Level 1 Shortage Condition 1,050' Level 2 Shortage Condition Median Level 3 Shortage Condition “Stress Test” Hydrology 10 th – 90 th 1,000' Percentile “Stress Test” Hydrology 950' Operations per 2007 Interim Guidelines 895’ is dead pool 900' 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Figure notes: 2007 Projections from Interim Guidelines FEIS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2005 natural flow record. “Full” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1906-2015 natural flow record. 7 “Stress Test” Hydrology from April 2018 CRSS. Future hydrology based on resampling of the 1988-2015 natural flow record.