NORTH CAROLINA 2018 P OST - ELECTION B RIEFING www.ncfef.org NCFEF - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NORTH CAROLINA 2018 P OST - ELECTION B RIEFING www.ncfef.org NCFEF @ncfef & @jonathankappler

Bottom Line Up Top National  Republicans appears to expand majority in US Senate by 2 seats  Democrats have retaken the majority in the US House (approximate  next pick up of +35ish) None of NC’s 3 competitive US House races flip   Rep. Holding (R-2 nd ) & Rep Budd (R-13 th ) win re-election, Harris (R) bests McCready (D) by less than 1,000 votes in NC09 NC’s Appellate Courts  Earls (D) wins NC Supreme Court race  Democrats win all 3 NC Court of Appeals races  Constitutional Amendments  Four of the six proposed constitutional amendments pass  NC House  Democrats break the GOP Supermajority with apparent net pick up  of 10 seats* NC Senate  Republicans narrowly lose Supermajority, Democrats pick up six  seats

The 2018 Election Cycle: What was it? Wave election: An election that (1) produces the potential for a political party to significantly affect the political status quo as (2) the result of a substantial increase in seats for that party. -Jacob Smith, writing for the UVA Center for Politics

Midterm Election Comparisons NCGA Gains by Party Year Opposite the White House 1970 D+10 1982 D+10 Blue Moon Midterm 1994 R+39 Elections 2006 D+7 2018 D+16 All Midterms +11 (8 House, 3 Senate) Average

National Results

Competitive US House Races Total Outside Spending: $15.5 million Total amount raised: Outside Spending: Outside Spending: Outside Spending: $3.4 million+ $7.5 million $4.6 million $1.9M v $1.5M $4.5M v $3M $2.8M v $1.8M

Competitive US House Races NC-13: NC-02: NC-09: Budd (R): 51.6% Holding (R): 51.3% Harris (R): 49.4% Manning (D): 45.5% Coleman (D): 45.8% McCready (D): 48.8% Matemu (L): 2.9% Scott (L): 1.8% Bailey (L): 1.9% Corriher (G): 1.0% Difference: 1,860 votes

Appellate Court Races NC Supreme Court Jackson (R): 34.1% Earls (D): 49.5% NC Supreme Court Anglin (R): 16.4% Democrats expand majority from 4-3 to 5-2 NC Court of Appeals – Calabria Seat (Open) Griffin (R): 35.8% Hampson (D): 48.7% Ray (R): 15.5% NC Court of Appeals Democrats narrow NC Court of Appeals – Elmore Seat (Open) Republican majority from Kitchen (R): 46.9% 10-5 to 8-7 Collins (D): 48.5% Monaco (L): 4.6% NC Court of Appeals – Arrowood Seat Heath (R): 49.3% Arrowood (D): 50.7%

Constitutional Amendments Marsy’s Law • 62.1% For: • Against: 37.9% • Hunting & Fishing Rights • 57.1% For: • Against: 42.9% • Voter ID • 55.5% For: • Against: 44.5% • Income Tax Cap • 57.4% For: • Against: 42.6% • Boards & Commissions • 38.4% For: • Against: 61.6% • Filling Judicial Vacancies • 33.1% For: • Against: 66.9% •

The 2018 Election Cycle 2016 Election

NCGA Races General Takeaways & Factors  Low Presidential approval rating overall – & importantly with key demographic groups  Accelerating shift in the political orientation of some groups  (Rapidly) growing communities  Money - early outside money, targeted candidate & party money  Dominate local factors that worked in their favor  Particularly critical in rural districts Dems won  Role of Redistricting  Democratic strategy  The things they can control (money & candidate recruitment)  In some ways NC emblematic of national election results – in other ways, not so much  Urban – rural divide  Women candidates

NC House – Key Results & Takeaways  Republicans maintain majority, lose supermajority  Republicans: 66  Democrats: 54  2010: GOP +16  2018: Dem+10*  Urban/Suburban - Rural Divide  Wake  2017: 8 Democrats, 3 Republicans  2019: 11 Democrats, 0 Republicans  Mecklenburg  2017: 8 Democrats, 4 Republicans  2019: 12 Democrats, 0 Republican*  41% of NC House Democratic caucus from Wake or Mecklenburg Counties  Rematches highlight how 2018 shifted from 2016

Pick-ups – NC House  Democratic Pick-ups  35: Rep. Malone (R) to Terrence Everitt (D)  36: Rep. Dollar (R) to Julie von Haefen (D)  93: Rep. Jordan (R) to Ray Russell (D)  98: Rep. Bradford (R) to Christy Clark (D)  103: Rep. Brawley (R) to Rachel Hunt (D)*  104: Rep. Dulin (R) to Brandon Lofton (D) Net +10*  105: Rep. Stone (R) to Wesley Harris (D)  119: Rep. Clampitt (R) to Joe Sam Queen (D)  Open Seats  8: no incumbent  25: Rep. Collins (R) to John Gailliard (D)  37: Rep. Hunt-Williams/John Adcock (R) to Sydney Batch (D)  57: Rep. Blust (R) to Ashton Clemmons (D)  Republican Pick-ups  7: Rep. Richardson (D) to Lisa Stone Barnes (R)  12: Rep. G. Graham (D) to Chris Humphrey (R)

NC House Blue Star = New Democratic Representative Red Star = New Republican Representative Republicans: 65 Democrats: 55

Strong Democratic (37) Lean Democratic (5) Lean Republican (8) Strong Republican (56) Black OPEN Farmer-Butterfield Jordan Conrad R. Turner 29 93 74 84 24 8 Durham - Wilson Ashe Forsyth Iredell OPEN (Michaux) Brockman OPEN (Collins) Murphy Johnson Arp 31 60 25 82 69 9 Durham Guilford - Pitt Cabarrus Union Insko Willingham Adcock Dulin Faircloth Corbin 104 120 56 23 62 41 Orange Edgecombe Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Macon Carney C. Graham Billy Richardson Stone Warren Horn 102 105 47 76 68 44 Mecklenburg Robeson Cumberland Mecklenburg Rowan Union Holley Autry OPEN (L. Bell) Yarborough Brody Stevens 100 38 55 90 21 2 Wake Mecklenburg Sampson Person Union Surry Gill Competitive (14) Jackson Bobbie Richardson OPEN (Jones) McElraft 33 39 65 13 7 Wake Wake Ager Franklin Rockingham Carteret 115 Hanes OPEN (Blust) Buncombe OPEN (Muller) OPEN (Boswell) Potts 72 57 16 81 6 Forsyth - OPEN (Steinburg) - Dare Davidson 1 OPEN (R. Moore) Beasley - Hardister Cleveland Fraley 99 92 59 14 95 Mecklenburg Mecklenburg G. Graham Guilford Onslow Iredell 12 Alexander OPEN (Hall) Lenoir Bumgardner Zachary 107 109 11 Strong Republican (56) 73 Mecklenburg Wake Goodman Gaston Yadkin 66 Fisher Butler Richmond Lambeth White Destin Hall 114 18 75 26 87 Buncombe New Hanover Brisson Forsyth Johnston Caldwell 22 Quick Martin Bladen Szoka Blackwell Setzer 58 34 45 86 89 Guilford Wake B. Turner Cumberland Catawba Burke 116 Lucas Ball Buncombe Grange Henson Saine 113 42 49 20 97 Cumberland Wake Clampitt New Hanover Transylvania Lincoln 119 OPEN (Earle) Hunter Swain Brawley Hastings K. Hall 5 101 103 110 91 Mecklenburg Hertford B. Jones Mecklenburg Gaston Stokes 46 Floyd Reives Columbus Pittman Torbett J. Bell 108 43 54 83 10 Cumberland Chatham John Cabarrus Gaston Wayne 40 Cunningham Pierce Wake Presnell T. Moore Elmore 106 118 111 48 94 Mecklenburg Scotland Malone Yancey Cleveland Wilkes 35 Belk Meyer Wake Riddell McGrady Dobson 117 88 50 64 85 Mecklenburg Orange OPEN (Williams) Alamance Henderson McDowell 37 Harrison - Davis Iler Howard 61 19 17 77 Guilford Ross New Hanover Brunswick Davie 63 Terry Alamance Dixon Strickland OPEN (Burr) 71 28 67 4 Forsyth Dollar Duplin Johnston Stanly 36 Wray Wake Lewis Boles Open (Watford) 27 53 52 80 Northampton Sauls Harnett Moore Davidson 51 Garrison Lee OPEN Adams Hurley 32 79 96 70 Vance - Catawba Randolph Morey Bradford Shepard McNeill 30 98 15 78 Durham Mecklenburg Onslow Randolph Speciale Rogers 112 3 Craven Rutherford