Nordic Electricity Market Forum November 28, 2019 From national to Nordic Adequacy by Nordic Planning Group
Adequacy assessments in different time horizons Dimitrios Chaniotis, ENTSO-E 10 year anniversary presentation
Nordic winter power balance 2019-2020 => youshouldalsoanalyze all the neighboringcountries!
Longer term adequacy studies • In longerterm studies, the whole power system is modelledand simulated hour-by-hour with probabilistic approach • Last year, Nordic TSOs published a Nordic adequacyforecast based on a European study (MAF, Mid-term AdequacyForecast 2017) that was complementedwith regional sensitivities: • Locationof future wind power development • Weatherpatterns – extreme heat, extreme storm • No Russian cross-borderexchange • Reductionin CHP capacity • Reductionin Nuclear capacity • Grid constraints in DK/Gerborder • A Pan-European study (MAF 2019) has just been published
Results from MAF 2019
Development: 2020 to 2021
CEP impact on adequacy studies To be developed
Gradual implementation towards 2023 This will also be the basis for ERAA 2023 Nordic adequacy assessment: any • 1-10 year granularity ERAA 2022 separate Nordic methodologyor • Consolidation of • Sectorial Generation viability integration tests study is not planned (e.g. mothballing risk) + ERAA 2021 CM (sensitivity w/wo CM, but no CM • Consolidation of Flow- assessment) Based framework suited for 5-10 yrs, CEP • Consolidation of causal But we are still needed to 70%, etc.) analysis of adequacy MAF 2020 (resource vs • Proof of concept interpret the results from the interconnection) Generation viability • New target year tests 2030 Nordic point of view! • Flow-based proof of concept
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