Resource Avail ilabilit ity and Need (RAN) No November 1, 1, 201 2018 Reli liabil ilit ity Sub ubcommit ittee 1
Purpose & • Purpose: Review Resource Availability and Need (RAN) timeline and potential near term Key solutions Takeaways Key Tak akea eaways: RAN is developing solutions for the efficient • conversion of committed capacity to energy • Feedback has stressed the value of near term action; MISO agrees and will pair near term improvements with longer term holistic solutions MISO is proposing a multi-phase approach with a • goal of implementing short term fixes in early 2019 2
Reduced reserve margins and increased forced outages rates have increased risks in real time operations . . . 16 %) 14 s PRM (%) 12 nus 10 minu in mi 8 argin 6 l Mar 4 ual ctua Act 2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MISO SO *Note: Forced outage rate includes full and partial (derate) outages 3
Growing dependence on LMRs increases emergency likelihood . . . 11.8 GW UCAP of Registered LMRs LMR commitments in recent PRAs (GW) 12,000 Plan lan Yea ear 201 2016-17 17 201 2017-18 18 201 2018-19 19 Firm Service 0 to 1 hrs BTM TMG 3.5 3.5 4.1 10,000 Level DR BTMG DR DR 5.8 6.0 7.0 8,000 UCAP clea leared 9.3 9.5 11.1 Emergency- Targeted 1.5 to 4 hrs Uncleared 1.0 1.2 0.7 only Reduction DR 6,000 4.25 to 8 hrs 4,000 DR Committed LMRs equal to 9.1% of coincident • Metered peak load cleared the last PRA BTMG 2,000 12 hrs This is larger than the current 8.4% UCAP • PRM which falls to 7.9% in June 0 Lead Time Product Type Meas. Resource Method Type 4
This stress on current real time operations illustrates sense of urgency to enhance capacity sufficiency Black circles represent represent subregional footprint scarcity scarcity MISO increasingly reliant on interchange (NSI) and wind to meet load 5
Themes in stakeholder advice, in combination with MISO’s potential solution whitepaper, lead to a series of options and today’s discussion Issue assignment Potential Solution Whitepaper Issue Identification Near term straw proposal January 2018 September 2018 March 2018 Goal 1 : Goal 2: Link resource Goal 4: Ensure Improve outage Goal 3: Align PRA accreditation and flexible resource scheduling and commitments requirements availability expectations Essential Forward outage Reporting New market Reliability transparency Services Economic Outage Seasonal Requirements demand classification auction response Scarcity price Roles Accreditation Auction inputs formation Market Incentives solutions Historical information 6
Focus on near term improvements with desired impact by Spring 2019 Tightest Weekly Average Margins since 2016/17 PY Near Term Obje Nea bjective: : Typical 20,000 Improved availability to 5 – 10 Weekly Average Margins, MW GWs will reduce risks 15,000 High Risk 10,000 Associated MaxGens 5,000 June 2016 Alert South • July 2016 Event Step 1 for footprint • August 2016 Alert Central and North • - April 2017 Warning and Alerts in South • September 2017 Multiple Events up to Step 1b/c • (5,000) May 2018 Alert footprint • Avg. June July Aug. Sep. Apr. Jul. Sep. May. May. May. last 20-26 18-24 1-7 19-25 24-30 17-23 18-24 14-20 21-27 28-31 two 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 PY Ass ssocia iated Max axGen Ev Events 7
DRAFT – For Discussion Forward Pla lan: Staged solution filing and implementation provides near term relief; supports future holistic solution PH PHASE 1: 1: Improve Resource Transparency and Performance for Spring 2019 and subsequent Planning Year LMRs PH PHASE 2: 2: Continued refinements for 2020 PRA, movement toward holistic solution(s) - Create transparency and better align LMR obligations to other resources Outage Coordination Expected focus on PH PHASE 3: 3: Holistic solution(s) - Improve forward-looking Improved Planning Resource transparency for stakeholders and Auction (PRA) inputs, include MISO resource accreditation Expected focus on - Increase early outage notification and Improved market incentives for resource flexibility during emergencies availability to meet daily and variable energy needs Seasonal resource adequacy File Q4 18 File Q2- 3 ’19 File 1H 2020 IMPLEM IM EMENT T 2019 2019 IMPLEM IM EMENT T 2020 2020 IMPLEM IM EMENT T 2021 2021 8 Draf aft proposal al as of 10/2 /29/18
Potential near te term LMR im improvements ts: Cre reate tr transparency and d be better ali lign LMR obl bligations to to oth ther re resources Pot otential l Sol Solutions Stakeholder St r Voices: Change procedures to call • LMRs in expectation of an Defin De fined Lim Limit its Best Be st Capa pabil ility LMR Ac LM Accre reditatio ion emergency Limit notification times for • LMRs with an exception - Response notice and LMRs must meet LMR accreditation process seasonal availability defined minimum adjusted by set to physical and requirements performance Mixed views on testing • operational capability characteristics e.g. 2 hour response Look into accreditation and - Testing • time, etc requirements for DR incentives set equal to other Grandfather or provide long resources • transition for any changes - LMRs called in anticipation of Focus should be expanded to • Emergency all unit types declaration Recom commend nded 9 Draf aft proposal al as of 10/2 /29/18
Potential near te term Outa tage Coordination improvements: Im Improving fo forward-looking tr transparency fo for sta takeholders and MISO Pot otential l Sol Solutions Sta Stakeholder Voi oices • Increase transparency • Changes classifications Hist istori rica cal Repo port rtin ing Regi gional l Fore reca cast Impro rove Tools ls and/or lead time • Mixed opinions on Produce a region by Improve use and region (North, roles capabilities of Central, South) Produce historical current outage • Short lead outages forward rolling average actual tracking and impact forecast of planned should reduce outages analysis tools outages accreditation • Combine Resource Adequacy and/or market approaches Recom Recom Recom commend nded commend nded commend nded 10 Draf aft proposal al as of 10/2 /29/18
Potential near te term Outa tage Coordination im improvements: In Increase early outa tage sch cheduling and d fl flexibility du during emergencies Pot otential l Sol Solutions Sta Stakeholder Voi oices • Increase transparency High igh Risk isk Defin De finitive Outage Total l Outage • Changes classifications Outa tage Rati ting Cla lass ssif ifica cation Rati ting and/or lead time • Mixed opinions on roles All outages during • Short lead outages should times with low reduce accreditation All outages reserves are Create outage considered forced, submitted inside • Combine Resource rates inclusive of with an exemption 30 days are Adequacy and/or market all outages for outages forced scheduled ‘well in approaches advance’ Recom commend nded 11 Draf aft proposal al as of 10/2 /29/18
Committee Recommendations: MISO recommends assigning ownership to specific committees while maintaining transparency through coordinated updates Nea ear ter erm solu solutions wil ill l con ontinue thr hrough the he RS RSC For or mid id-term and nd hol holistic sol solutions, MIS ISO re recommendations: RSC SC • Refinement of processes to reliably use energy to serve near term needs (e.g., operating procedures, outage coordination studies) • RAS ASC • Improved Planning Resource Auction (PRA) inputs, include resource accreditation • Seasonal Resource Adequacy • MSC MSC • Improved market incentives for resource availability to meet daily and variable energy needs • MISO will publish a strawman proposal in Q1 2019 •
Questions? PH PHASE 1: 1: Improve Resource Transparency and Performance for Spring 2019 and subsequent Planning Year File in Q4 ’18 PHA PHASE 2: 2: Continued refinements for 2020 PRA, movement toward holistic solution(s) IMPLEM IM EMENT T IN IN 2019 2019 File Q2- 3 ’19 PH PHASE 3: 3: Holistic solution(s) IM IMPLEM EMENT T 2020 2020 File 1H 2020 IM IMPLEM EMENT T 2021 2021 13 Draf aft proposal al as of 10/2 /29/18
Appendix 14
Load Modifying Resources 15
LMR feedback: Key themes Stakeholder feedback focused on procedures, testing, and accreditation Change procedures to call LMRs earlier in expectation of an emergency • Limit notification times for LMRs with exception process based on characteristics • Mixed views on testing • Don’t pursue LMR testing due to large expense, especially to C&I customers • Annual testing is essential to ensuring the reliability of DR resources • Look into accreditation and incentives • Develop simple solutions such as economic DR before costly market-based products • Perform statistical modeling of resource availability, including LMRs • Break LMRs down into sub-categories and incent LMR’s to shift from emergency only to • economic dispatch Grandfather or provide long transition for any changes • Focus on LMRs is misplaced and should be expanded to all unit types • 16
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