New I nt egrat ed Modelling New I nt egrat ed Modelling wit h Special Ref erence t o wit h Special Ref erence t o AI M/ Ecosyst em Model AI M/ Ecosyst em Model The 8th AI M I nternational Workshop 13- - 15, March 2003 15, March 2003 13 From: Y. Matsuoka From: Y. Matsuoka • I nt roduct ion, t he aim and some f eat ures I nt roduct ion, t he aim and some f eat ures • of a new int egrat ed assessment model of a new int egrat ed assessment model • Framework of t he model Framework of t he model • • Some preliminary result s of t he model Some preliminary result s of t he model • calculat ion calculat ion
Overview of the new model Overview of the new model 1. I nt egrat ed Assessment model of Long I nt egrat ed Assessment model of Long- -t erm f ut ure t erm f ut ure 1. scenario on global economy, ecological service and scenario on global economy, ecological service and environment al prot ect ion policy environment al prot ect ion policy 2. A t ool f or scenario analysis on A t ool f or scenario analysis on 2. ・ ・ Energy policy and climat ic change Energy policy and climat ic change ・ ・ Economic assessment of nat ural services Economic assessment of nat ural services ・ ・ Macro- -economy and land economy and land- -use changes use changes Macro ・ ・ Economic assessment of global environment al Economic assessment of global environment al conservat ion act ivit y conservat ion act ivit y 3. Ext ension of AI M on climat e change Ext ension of AI M on climat e change 3. 4. St art ing model t o analyze various global issues, St art ing model t o analyze various global issues, 4. t hat is t he model has generic st ruct ure, easy t o t hat is t he model has generic st ruct ure, easy t o ext end, ... ext end, ... 5. .... 5. ....
Some f eatures of the new model (1) Some f eatures of the new model (1) 1. Top- -down global model down global model 1. Top 2. Coupling of 1) sequent ial quasi Coupling of 1) sequent ial quasi- -dynamic general dynamic general 2. equilibrium model f or balancing and pricing goods and equilibrium model f or balancing and pricing goods and services and 2) Dynamic accumulat ion and depreciat ion services and 2) Dynamic accumulat ion and depreciat ion process model of man- -made and nat ural capit als made and nat ural capit als process model of man 3. Explicit descript ion of GHGs emission, pollut ion loading Explicit descript ion of GHGs emission, pollut ion loading 3. and t heir reduct ion act ivit y and t heir reduct ion act ivit y 4. Simplif ied nat ural process models of Carbon and Simplif ied nat ural process models of Carbon and 4. Nit rogen Cycling, Hydrology, Erosion and weat hering Nit rogen Cycling, Hydrology, Erosion and weat hering process process
Some f eatures of the new model (2) Some f eatures of the new model (2) 5. Consistent description of population, GDP, and 5. Consistent description of population, GDP, and land- - use change processes use change processes land 6. Explicit descriptions of 6. Explicit descriptions of • I nteraction among natural/ environment • I nteraction among natural/ environment management activities and macro- - economy economy management activities and macro • Natural and environmental services as • Natural and environmental services as indispensable inputs of economic production and indispensable inputs of economic production and people living people living 5. Explicit description of natural services, 5. Explicit description of natural services, environmental protection activity and their environmental protection activity and their economic interactions economic interactions
Framework of the model Framework of the model Pollut ion load product ion reduct ion service and service produced sect or int ermediat e, ot her energy, goods and capit al, labor region service environment al ser vice ot her Environment al region service import abroad Environment al market export good/ service product ion int erme- sect ors diat e, f inal demand capit al energy, Recreat ional labor and cult ural capit al, services labor household government Nat ural capit al nat ural maint enance capit al cost s maint enance maint enance and sect ors augment at ion service
Nat ural capit al • Nat ural capit al = Renewable resources (st ock), having t he • Nat ural capit al = Renewable resources (st ock), having t he concept s of depreciat ion, invest ment concept s of depreciat ion, invest ment • Environment al goods/ service product ion sect ors : • Environment al goods/ service product ion sect ors : Ext ension of primary indust ry. Agricult ure, St ock Ext ension of primary indust ry. Agricult ure, St ock f arming, wat er supply, f orest ry, f isheries et c.. f arming, wat er supply, f orest ry, f isheries et c.. • Nat ural capit al maint enance sect ors : Funct ional sect or, • Nat ural capit al maint enance sect ors : Funct ional sect or, which augment s,and augment s,and invest s t o nat ural capit al/ service. invest s t o nat ural capit al/ service. which • Ext ended concept of invest ment : Prevent ion of soil • Ext ended concept of invest ment : Prevent ion of soil degradat ion, increase of base wat er f lows. Cost s is degradat ion, increase of base wat er f lows. Cost s is t ransf erred f rom government or environment al service t ransf erred f rom government or environment al service product ion sect ors. product ion sect ors.
Some t echnical problems on modeling (1) 1. Physical volume balancing of goods : Logit share pref erence f unct ion wit h physical/ monet ary cont inuit y, i.e. Share of input / out put goods : Logit equat ion wit h variable pref erence paramet ers I nput volume = Out put volume (Monet ary, Physically) 1) Composit ion of domest ic market goods wit h domest ic product s and f oreign product s 2) Market elect ricit y product ion by various generat ion met hods
Some t echnical problems on modeling (2) 2. Syst emat ic and aut omat ic dat a reconciliat ion processes among 1) I O st ruct ures and monet ary f lows (GTAP5) 2) Financial f lows (I SS, Hague) 3) Energy f lows (I EA/ OECD), energy resources (f ossil, t radit ional, modern renewables) 4) Agricult ure, f orest ry and livest ock product ions (FAOSTAT) 5) Land-use (FAOSTAT, I GBP 1 km product , GLC2000) 6) St ocks, man-made capit als, environment al devices, nat ural resources/ capit als, human capit als et c. 3. Aut omat ic sect or and regional aggregat ion program coupled wit h support ing dat abase wit h count ry level resolut ion
Funct ions described in t he model (1) Product ion of environment al service, Regulat ing Human and Natural Service production Related Natural Human and Natural Service augmentation of sectors Service capital capital Regulating : Benef its obtained f rom regulation of processes Climate CO2 CO2 sequestation terestrial Forest area Construction, control absorption industry absorbtion Maintenance ocean sink CO2 emission Energy saving Energy device reduction Energy mix change Power f acility Urban Air conditioning Forest area Construction, climate f acilities Maintenance stabilization Air quality Emission reduction natural absorbtion Emission reduction Construction, control service oxidation devices, Energy plants Maintenance Energy mix change decompsition Energy saving Flood control Mitigation disaster prevention water retention Green area, Construction, f actor industry I mpoundment I mpoundment Maintenance Forest area, Crop area, Construction, I mpoundment Maintenance Water Load public water supply self - purif iction Forest area, Crop area Construction, purif ication reduction wastewater industry Water works, Well Maintenance Natural and man- made Maintenance impoundment
Funct ions described in t he model (2) Product ion and enhancement of environment al service Human and Natural Environmental service Related Natural Human and Natural Service augmentation of production sectors Service capital capital Provisioning : Goods produced or provided by systems Water supply I rrigation, Water industry, Water hervesting, Natural base discharge Forest maintenance, Domestic and I rrigation service Surf ace runof f , Primary water resource Crop area increase I ndustrial sectors Evapotransipiration Ground water resource Natural and man- water supply control made impoundment Ground water harvesting Food supply Food Agriculture (Paddy rice, Soil f ormation, Potential crop Climate mitigation, production Wheat, Cereal grains, Green water, production Soil adjustment, Vegetables, Fruit, Nutrient cycling Fertilizer, I rrigation, Nuts, Oil seeds, Sugar Water harvest cane, Fibers) Animal Livestock Bovine cattle, Sheep Soil f ormation, Livestock f eeding Climate mitigation, product and goats, hourses, Green water, capacity Soil adjustment Animal products, Milk, Nutrient cycling Wool, Silk- worm Fuelwood Fuel wood Fuel wood industry Forest primary Forest primary Forest maintenance, supply production production production (vegetation Climate mitigation, area) Maintenance labor Biogeochemic Biogeochemicals and Forest area, Climate Maintenance labor als and - - genetics genetics
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